Is Kelley Blue Book realistic?

[Xist]

When I bought my Civic, KBB said that my Forester was worth $2,500. Less than two years later, it is saying $1,681. Seventeen percent depreciation a year on a new car seems steep. Before I joined the Army, I paid $2,500-3,400 for my cars, each was around thirteen years old, and around Blue Book. Bacon is in better shape than some of those were, but when I came home from Germany, used cars were selling for much more than before I shipped out.

Apparently, Cash for Clunkers influenced that, but also, I expect most people to ask more than they actually want, to allow room to negotiate down, but I doubt that anyone would plan on negotiating down a full third.

I tried to look into it and people seemed to think that individuals trying to sell cars grossly overestimated what their cars were worth--most of these comments were insulting, calling them greedy, dishonest, and stupid.

Whenever I look for first- and second-generation Foresters, people always ask $3,500+, for cars with more miles.

My car has been up for a week and I expected to have a couple people offer well under Blue Book every day. I had the one guy ask why I did my own repairs and another said that he would not offer me much more than KBB estimated.

So, maybe all Forester owners, and everyone else is wrong, and our vehicles are worth half what we think they are. I do not know about anyone else's vehicle, but mine works perfectly, although if the the car needed a medium-sized repair, somewhere between the new half-shaft and replacing the head gasket, it might not be worth fixing.

One comment that I liked was 'I'm not selling this car to KBB"

By the way:
NADA Trade-in $1,800
Edmunds $2,464
VMR $2,500 (Consumer Reports recommended consulting them)

[Baltothewolf]

No, KBB is useless on anything older than 5 years. Go ok craigslist and see what everyone else is posting them for. Then go on eBay and look for the vehicle and mark the 'finished listings' or 'recently sold' (forget which one) and see what they have been selling for lately. Price accordingly.

[gone-ot]

FWIW, AZ bases our cars Value Laden Tax (VLT) on an assessed value of 60% of the MSRP reduced by 16.25% for each year since the vehicle was first registered in AZ.

[Daschicken]

Yea, kbb isn't great at anything old. When i sold my 2001 Nissan Maxima 2 years ago, KBB was $3000, as was our list price. We had a buyer the first day, didnt work out (grandparent bought a car without telling anyone before). Second day we had 2 more people, a neighbor and a lady who sight-unseen offered $3500.

Neighbor got first dibs at $3k. As she was getting ready to leave, the car suddenly wouldn't start. :O Told her to turn AC off and it started right up. Hasn't had any problems since as far as i know. Kinda scary, but atleast it was a neighbor.

[freebeard]

I use the NADA Guide. When I bought my Superbeetle a few years back mid-book was $6,555. I just checked and it's $7125.

Used Classic, Collectible, Exotic and Muscle Car and Truck Prices, Values & Specs by Manufacturer

Hagerty's has it at $7798.

https://www.hagerty.com/valuationtools

Old Tele man -- MSRP is $1985

[gone-ot]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Old Tele man -- MSRP is $1985

...in what year? Gotta account for IN-flation, while the fat-lady (Gooberment) sings.

[darcane]

I've bought and sold quite a number of cars, primarily on Craigslist.

I notice a lot of cars that are posted for sale significantly above KBB prices... and they sit there for ages, not selling until they eventually drop the price. In my experience, if I take KBB's and Edmunds' private party prices (with accurate info, no "Excellent" condition prices for a salvage title beater) and average them, that's pretty darn close to what I'll get. If I price it significantly higher, it sits forever and I can eventually sell it for a little higher, but not much.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Baltothewolf

No, KBB is useless on anything older than 5 years. Go ok craigslist and see what everyone else is posting them for. Then go on eBay and look for the vehicle and mark the 'finished listings' or 'recently sold' (forget which one) and see what they have been selling for lately. Price accordingly.

Absolutely right. KBB was valuing my Jeep Liberty CRD at less than $6000, I sold it on eBay and got over $7000, plus the guy flew out to drive it home.

[Xist]

Originally Posted by Baltothewolf

No, KBB is useless on anything older than 5 years. Go ok craigslist and see what everyone else is posting them for. Then go on eBay and look for the vehicle and mark the 'finished listings' or 'recently sold' (forget which one) and see what they have been selling for lately. Price accordingly.

So much data! I had not seen anything in my area, but they show seventeen sold Foresters between 1998 and 2001!

Two of them were somehow sold twice, eight days apart, with the same picture and mileage.

Several times, it did not show the sale price and at least half were not in good condition, with two needing new head gaskets:

2001 107954 $3435 9 "dins and scratches" "This vehicle runs fair and drives fair.
1999 104000 $3200 9
2001 100931 $2800 9
1999 97006 $3500 9
2001 213740 $2550 ? Will need an exhaust system soon, but drives well.
1998 184000 $1800 7 Minor accident, some rust and dings

I was surprised that four had fewer miles than my car. I do not know why the third sold for hundreds less than the others, perhaps minor problems came up, but the last one is an outlier; discarding it, the average sale price was $3,097 for a 2,000.2 Forester, with 124,726.2 miles.

I am hoping to negotiate to three thousand, although it is possible that someone could convince me to go lower.

That first car sold later for $835 less "This vehicle runs rough, but driving is not recommended." They said that fuses were missing, so I am not sure what happened there. One with 156k miles said that it just needed connecting rod bearing replacement and a tune-up, but only sold for $850. One car with moderate body damage sold twice for $730 and $760.

One had 215,000 miles, needed head gaskets, and sold for $995. Another also needed a head job, had 121k miles, and sold for $1175, so I might have been able to sell my car for that amount.

Originally Posted by Old Tele man

FWIW, AZ bases our cars Value Laden Tax (VLT) on an assessed value of 60% of the MSRP reduced by 16.25% for each year since the vehicle was first registered in AZ.

MSRP was $19,995 and the car is sixteen years old, although I do not know if it has always been in Arizona.

So:

$19,995 * 0.6 * (1-.1625)^16 ?

That gives me $703.

[freebeard]

Old Tele man -- 1971 (a very good year)
http://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=1&year=1971

$11,711.10

So I guess the car is holding value better than fiat currency?