I wish that you had learned that prison healthcare sucked like I did, by watching "My Name is Earl."
[an inmate coerced him to make a shank and then stabbed him in the arm. Earl told a guard, who just put a bandaid on it, and said "Let us know if your arm turns black." Earl narrated "That's when I learned that prison healthcare sucks." Or something. I cannot find it]
I keep seeing that cases will peak in mid-April, but today our governor said April 26th, although he also says that golf courses are essential. Clearly we know his hobby, but nail salons are also essential.
Realtors?
This seems like a bad time to tour strangers' houses with other people that you don't know.
I do not know what in the world happened February 11th. A testing blitz? Cases increased by 32.84% in one day, but otherwise, from February 7th until today, new cases have increased between 0.71% and 14%, but between January 23 and February 4 this grew between 18% and 88% each day.
I do not remember anything from my statistics class. I have a big database of just averages and projecting those averages forward.
I am also using WPS Office, not MS Office. Now I am getting into things that I do not know how to do with this suite. I tried to chart percentage growth and it got all weird. I was not curious enough to send it to my laptop where I do have Microsoft Office.
In order for cases to peak April 26th we need to have significantly fewer new cases each day--37% fewer. If we have 63% as many new cases April First as we did March 31st we would have 919,396 total, 1,018,990 on April 25th, and 1,018,991 on April 26th.
I cannot imagine new cases dropping off that fast, which means that when it does start dropping, it needs to drop faster to meet that target.
Of course, viruses don't care about targets.
I tried to find an explanation for their math and found
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections. It has those neat graphs that I keep seeing. I do not know if there is a list of every state, but I went through every state and D.C. and New Jersey is somehow supposed to peak April 8th, and a few others, like New York, are supposed to peak on the 9th.
Misery doesn't peak until May 22nd.
Can we agree that if they explain their math I wouldn't understand it?
I do not have any idea how many health care providers are in New York, but imagine if once they peaked they started sending their staff and equipment to states that are still struggling. With a population of about 20,000,000, they should really be able to help. I am not saying that after a month or two of fighting for their lives they fight as intensely in other states, but if they put in 4 hours a day, they should be able to do a huge amount of help.
That site doesn't list the total estimated cases in the U.S., just that they anticipate needing 260,342 beds April 16th.
They say they estimated needing 107,131 beds on March 31st. World O Meters says that we currently have 188,592 cases.
That would indicate that they anticipate approximately 458,303 active cases.
We had 3,613 March 15th.
It does say they estimate we will have 93,765 deaths in the U.S.
We currently have 4,056.
Are we going to isolate every last case in the next 7 - 51 days and thus eradicate it?
I cannot find any projection like this for the entire world.
Quote:
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Our model suggests that, with social distancing, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.
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IHME COVID-19 model FAQs | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
So, social distancing will save us.
Yay.
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