Tesla EV pickup truck!

[redpoint5]

The standard range Model 3 battery costs Tesla perhaps $5,500. That leaves nearly $30k to make the rest of the car, and yet they can't do so profitably.

Perhaps a $50k truck will be available, if you know who to ask and give the secret handshake. Tesla is going to do everything they can to sell the $100k version and barely mention the lower trim levels.

[Shaneajanderson]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The standard range Model 3 battery costs Tesla perhaps $5,500. That leaves nearly $30k to make the rest of the car, and yet they can't do so profitably.

Perhaps a $50k truck will be available, if you know who to ask and give the secret handshake. Tesla is going to do everything they can to sell the $100k version and barely mention the lower trim levels.

I suspect Tesla has the same problem Uber does: lots of cash rolling in, they assume it will continue to do so, and they're dumping huge amounts of money into trying to develop self driving systems.

Although to be fair, Uber's version has only killed one person so far, I think Tesla's record is a little worse.

[redpoint5]

I'd need to see the data to have an opinion on the kill rate of autonomous systems. It needs to factor in the "save rate" to give an accurate picture.

Level 4 autonomous driving is a minimum of a decade out in my estimation. That said, it's coming, and investments need to be made to stay in the game long term. It's unclear to me if Tesla's investment into self-driving has made the company as successful as it is today, or is holding them back from getting the basics down; selling large quantities of vehicles profitably.

There's only so many R&D projects a company can support simultaneously, and eventually some of those projects need to be converted into profits.

I'm probably most excited to see Tesla big-rigs on the road, followed by the pickup. Least excited to see the Y, but I hope it's a huge success.

[samwichse]

I think the real opportunity Tesla has here is to get rid of the classical truck outline. Take a truck with an 8' bed and a crew cab. It's ridiculously long.



Now, move the front wheel back several feet and chop off the whole engine compartment area to make it something like a cabover (but less tall). Now you have a truck that can actually maneuver, haul a whole load of workers to a site, and still have a bed big enough plywood/sheetrock.

Sadly, I think we'll end up with something more like this because suburban truck commuters want a status symbol:

[aerohead]

Ford Motor Co. is offering one flavor of it's Lincoln Navigator at a MSRP of $92,000.It's a F-150-based vehicle.
For a like vehicle,with better performance,lower cost of ownership over the life of the vehicle,and ability to run on zero-carbon,would the Tesla ultimately not be the better value?
AeroStealth's 2014 EcoBoost F-150 drops from 22-mpg,to as low as 9-mpg,towing his 5th-wheel,and at a 10-mph lower speed.That's like shrinking the fuel tank from 36-gallons,to 14.7-gallons.Nobody goes spastic over that!
And industry analysts talk of a $20,000 profit/per unit on the Ford.I don't hear any criticism for them not lowering their price.
Remember,Tesla is trying to replace ICE with EV.It's their reason for being.If they can make a like-value truck,what's the problem.For me,the Tesla would be a giveaway compared to the Ford.
Save the petroleum for plastics,so we can feed that 800-million pound/year gyre in the Pacific Ocean.

[Hersbird]

They will need to compete with the Rivian. I think Musk's silly $50,000 us just to try and steal their potential sales which is about to come out at around $65-85k. So Musk promises something sketched on a napkin that will supposedly be better for less money. 3 years later when it actually materializes, it will be more like $100k, then 2 years later maybe a stripped down 2wd version shows up for Rivian base 4wd price.

[redpoint5]

My money is still on Tesla. Rivian is probably building off existing frames and not approaching the design problem as a blank slate. Tesla will probably exceed most metrics compared to Rivian while costing a little less. My assumption is based on the fact that Tesla currently outsells other EV sedans by orders of magnitude, at close to the lowest price point.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by Hersbird

They will need to compete with the Rivian. I think Musk's silly $50,000 us just to try and steal their potential sales which is about to come out at around $65-85k. So Musk promises something sketched on a napkin that will supposedly be better for less money. 3 years later when it actually materializes, it will be more like $100k, then 2 years later maybe a stripped down 2wd version shows up for Rivian base 4wd price.

Yes,Rivian should be real competition.They've hired former Tesla people and other good talent.And Saudi Arabia,Qatar,or Emirates is backing them.
We've got over 260,000,000 ICE vehicles that need to come off the road,so the more the better.Elon Musk doesn't care.
I don't know him or the Tesla organization,so I haven't seen inside the kimono.
I have no idea what they're up to.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The standard range Model 3 battery costs Tesla perhaps $5,500. That leaves nearly $30k to make the rest of the car, and yet they can't do so profitably.

Perhaps a $50k truck will be available, if you know who to ask and give the secret handshake. Tesla is going to do everything they can to sell the $100k version and barely mention the lower trim levels.

They can make a profit, but the margin is too small to cover other company expenses. The other versions yield a bigger margin so they get prevalence.

But the point I made earlier is that it is probably a lot easier to build a truck than a Model 3 which has a very safe but also very complex body. Even the Y will be built using way less parts and might also be cheaper to build than the 3.

[aerohead]

In the late 1980s,or early-90s,Volkswagen's profit margin was $17/vehicle.There were large volumes sold,and that's how they stayed in the game.
In the early 1980s,all Ford Escorts and Chevrolet Chevettes were 'dumped' on the market,sold at below cost in order to skew their CAFE rating into compliance,to enable them to sell gas-guzzlers.
We're still paying for all that.