Small / economy car deathwatch: we've passed "peak econobox" again

[redpoint5]

US EPA should have authority to set minimum standards, but should have no authority to set maximums. That isn't even a thing, to have air so clean that it's against EPA regulations. Is it the Trump appointee that's saying this?

I don't like CARB, but I defend the right of CA to govern themselves how they see fit.

[Bicycle Bob]

The difficulties of governing capitalism are certainly germane to the selection of automobiles offered, but I don't think I have time for that thread 'till maybe November.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by aerohead

California has tried,then lobbyists did what the could to kill it.The Supreme Court said California was empowered to do it.The automakers told California that they'd produce the 54.5 mpg cars,and now (last night) the US EPA says that California can't set their own standards.I can't keep up.

That is 54.5 mpg CAFE which is about 36 mpg combined on the window sticker. That also assumed that the mix of cars / trucks would be 67 /33 when it is about opposite of that today. Of course that was just an estimate.

Good thing for the automakers that there no longer is one CAFE standard for all companies. Bush changed things way back in 2007 so that each vehicle sold has it's own CAFE requirement based on footprint (track x wheelbase) and whether it is classified as a car or a light truck. At the end of the year each company has their own CAFE standard calculated based on the actual mix of vehicle they sold in that year. This is why companies can kill off all their cars and still hit CAFE numbers.

To meet the 2025 standard a full size truck only needs to get 23 mpg combined on the EPA window sticker.

• The RAM 1500 gets 23 mpg today.
• Ford is at 22 mpg
• GM is at 21 mpg
• Nissan is at 17 mpg
• Toyota brings up the rear with 16 mpg

So the technology is there today to meet the 2025 standard. The automakers just have to market it instead of continuing the endless cycle of who can haul and tow the most.

Also, Trump does not have the authority to revoke California's waiver. It is in Section 209 of the Clean Air Act and the text has no provision to revoke a waiver that has already been granted. California's most recent waiver was granted in 2013 and the regulations phase in from 2017 to 2025. The most likely outcome is: California sues, the court suspends Trump's attempt to revoke the waiver, lawyers get rich until Trump is out of office.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by JSH

To meet the 2025 standard a full size truck only needs to get 23 mpg combined on the EPA window sticker.

• The RAM 1500 gets 23 mpg today.
• Ford is at 22 mpg
• GM is at 21 mpg
• Nissan is at 17 mpg
• Toyota brings up the rear with 16 mpg

So the technology is there today to meet the 2025 standard. The automakers just have to market it instead of continuing the endless cycle of who can haul and tow the most.

Marketing it might be somewhat hard, not just because it might not seem so appealing to the folks who only want to brag about the payload, tow ratings or speed, but also because some of the new tech might be less tolerant to some redneck-engineering approaches to service them under the shade of a tree

[Bicycle Bob]

Marketing tends to take about a generation, but can you imagine the sceptics when someone proposed selling people stuff that costs ten times what it should to do its job? There was serious money put into that, and it is paying off.
However, I remember when the first gas crunch hit, and people were trading in big RVs for little ones at a loss. Fashion can change pretty quick. So, if all the climate striking kids, and all their friends, start holding their noses whenever they see a big, underloaded truck, it might work wonders.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Bicycle Bob

Marketing tends to take about a generation, but can you imagine the sceptics when someone proposed selling people stuff that costs ten times what it should to do its job? There was serious money put into that, and it is paying off.

10 years ago I wouldn't believe if someone told me I'd see so many high-end cars featuring hybrid versions, and sometimes I would see more of the hybrid ones than non-hybrids... What somewhat surprises me OTOH is that Volkswagen didn't achieve its goal to rely only on forced induction for its entire range worldwide in a 15-year timeframe as announced in 2003, even though its first serious approach to downsizing here in Brazil was plagued by some degree of maintenance neglect which used to be commonplace among a conservative majority of its public here.

However, I remember when the first gas crunch hit, and people were trading in big RVs for little ones at a loss. Fashion can change pretty quick.

Interesting. Well, even though it's not exactly the same matter, maybe if the restrictions against the fitment of Diesel engines in vehicles with a payload under one metric ton, fewer than 10 seats and either 2WD or 4WD without some sort of low-range in Brazil were phased out, I'm sure some folks who embraced the SUV bandwagon would be more likely to downsize to something like a Fiat Argo Trekking if it had a Diesel version available.

[Bicycle Bob]

Hybrids followed the usual pattern. Engineers got interested in them for the efficiency, and offered them as such, with little success. Then the glamour got going, with regenerative braking in Formula One, and the "Insane Level" button in the Teslas. This affected even the image of the Prius, boosting sales. The high price is not a real problem, because most people buy cars that "prove" how much spare cash they have, and quite a few people who could afford a mid-range car also had enough guilt about their lifestyles to find a "green" alternative attractive.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Bicycle Bob

Hybrids followed the usual pattern. Engineers got interested in them for the efficiency, and offered them as such, with little success. Then the glamour got going, with regenerative braking in Formula One, and the "Insane Level" button in the Teslas. This affected even the image of the Prius, boosting sales. The high price is not a real problem, because most people buy cars that "prove" how much spare cash they have, and quite a few people who could afford a mid-range car also had enough guilt about their lifestyles to find a "green" alternative attractive.

Then hybrid technology got cheap enough that it doesn’t make sense to buy the conventional engine. The new Accord, CRV, Escape, etc payback the purchase premium in a couple of years

[Xist]

Kids nowadays: "I'm holding my breath until you stop polluting!"
Rednecks everywhere: [rev coal roller]

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by Bicycle Bob

Hybrids followed the usual pattern. Engineers got interested in them for the efficiency, and offered them as such, with little success. Then the glamour got going, with regenerative braking in Formula One, and the "Insane Level" button in the Teslas. This affected even the image of the Prius, boosting sales. The high price is not a real problem, because most people buy cars that "prove" how much spare cash they have, and quite a few people who could afford a mid-range car also had enough guilt about their lifestyles to find a "green" alternative attractive.

At least in Brazil, besides some high-end models such as the BMW i8 only being available as a PHEV, another reason leading some people to get a hybrid is what we know here as "Gerson's Law", a matter of "taking advantage on everything". IIRC hybrids are exempt from the no-drive days in São Paulo, plus some malls already offer designated parking spots with free recharge for EVs and PHEVs.