cheaper to operate than an electric car?

[sendler]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

Who knows what will happen after 10 or 20 years?

The engineers know. The newest LiNMC chemistries will easily make 1000 cycles to 80% and that is with deeper cycling during testing than what will be programmed into any final product. More like 2,500 to 70%.
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Types of Lithium-ion Batteries
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LiFe A123 cells essentially last forever if you use them in the 70% range of charge and and low voltage cut off.
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http://www.formula-hybrid.org/wp-con...sign_guide.pdf
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[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by sendler

The engineers know.

But are they telling us? Or are they just going along with the over-selling of what EVs can realistically be expected to do? Which I think will inevitably lead to a counter-reaction, as people find out the claims were exaggerated.

The newest LiNMC chemistries will easily make 1000 cycles to 80% and that is with deeper cycling during testing than what will be programmed into any final product. More like 2,500 to 70%.

So 2500 cycles is maybe 10 years, no? Not very long, at least to someone whose current vehicles are 16 and 28 years old.

[sendler]

If you don't want to do some research and can't believe published engineering data then I can't help you.

[cowmeat]

But that's only 4 years (or maybe 5, if it was early production that year). Who knows what will happen after 10 or 20 years?

I'd let you know when it happens, but you see how I go through cars! I'll have had 12 more cars by then

[jamesqf]

Originally Posted by cowmeat

I'd let you know when it happens, but you see how I go through cars! I'll have had 12 more cars by then

Well, that's you :-) At the other end, I'm not likely to buy a car that's less than 10 years old, and then will keep it for another 10 if it doesn't break.

But back to the topic of operating costs, I worked out a few rough numbers. I get a bit over 70 mpg in the Insight, and have driven it a bit over 140K miles, or 2000 gallons. Figuring average gas price at $3/gal, that's $6000. Add in 16 oil & filter changes at $25 (expensive 0w20 oil), plus $100 for spark plugs and misc, that's $6500.

So assume I had an EV instead, and after 16 years it's time to replace the battery. Now Google says that a new Nissan Leaf (probably the cheapest EV, no?) battery costs $5499 Nissan Prices LEAF Battery Replacement at $5,499, New Packs More Heat Durable or I can get a larger capacity aftermarket one for $6500 https://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/19...ing-to-48-kwh/

Unless I've overlooked something, this means that unless I'm getting electricity virtually free, my long-term operating costs (fuel & maintenance) are going to be a lot higher.

This isn't even including the fact that the Leaf (even with the extended range battery) simply couldn't make a lot of the trips I needed to make.

OTOH, driving a reasonable hybrid like the Insight cut my fuel use to 1/2 - 1/4 that of the typical US vehicle. It can make the longest trip I want to make - coast to coast if I choose - and is driveable even with a seriously degraded battery. The only penalty (other than having to reset the IMA every week or two) is about a 5 mpg drop in my mostly highway driving. (Would probably be worse in city driving, though.)

[NeilBlanchard]

Prius batteries get charged and discharged FAR more often than big EV batteries - and Prius batteries have lasted 500,000 miles.

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

So 2500 cycles is maybe 10 years, no? Not very long, at least to someone whose current vehicles are 16 and 28 years old.

No, a Tesla battery can go over 200 miles per charge, so 2500 x 200 = 500,000 miles. 500K / 15K per year = 33 years.

[Ecky]

I was under the impression that time was just as much a factor as cycles for these batteries, especially if you live in a hot climate. If you keep the cycles down, could you really still have most of your capacity out of a large Tesla battery after close to 2 decades?

[cowmeat]

OTOH, driving a reasonable hybrid like the Insight cut my fuel use to 1/2 - 1/4 that of the typical US vehicle. It can make the longest trip I want to make - coast to coast if I choose - and is driveable even with a seriously degraded battery. The only penalty (other than having to reset the IMA every week or two) is about a 5 mpg drop in my mostly highway driving. (Would probably be worse in city driving, though.)

I dunno man,

Give it a few more years and there will be an internet full of aftermarket battery sellers with better than OEM batteries at half the dealership costs. The more of a market there is for them the more the competition will drive the price down, just like anything else that you buy.
I imagine by the time my Volt needs a battery (if I keep it that long) by then it will be at a more reasonable cost and they won't even be manufacturing ones with as little power as mine by then.
My operating costs are literally pennies a day now, so I'll spend less than 200 bucks a year on energy costs, with less maintenance costs, etc . . . and I can still drive it way over 300 miles at a pop when necessary, pull over and gas up and do it again and still get better mpgs than most people in an econobox. And I went from a SULEV to a ZEV, and one that I can put the grandkids' car seats in, so IMO it's still a win
If you're at 140k in the Insight, in reality you're already in the same boat and will eventually need a replacement battery for it, so tack a couple of grand onto your Insight's numbers, since from experience I'll tell you that car is NO FUN to drive with a dead IMA battery.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by jamesqf

long-term operating costs are going to be a lot higher.

Here is something else to think about. It's not just about dollars and cents. We are wrecking the planet with carbon emissions. You are a complete .1% outlier with your 70 mpg Insight. Most people choose cars that struggle to break 30 mpg. Why wouldn't they. Gas is $2 gallon in the USA. People will never choose to act until they are forced. And you can't MAKE the automaker sell them something they don't want.
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Put gas up to $8 and figure a more common state of the art Prius at 40 mpg and see if you want to plug in.