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Old 10-15-2017, 03:28 PM   #371 (permalink)
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The Oil Drum | Twenty (Important) Concepts I Wasn't Taught in Business School - Part I
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The above graphic shows a three-tiered time history of our planet, starting with the top black line being geologic time. The tiny black sliver on the far right, is enlarged in the second line, and the sliver on its far right is again enlarged on the bottom line, where the last 12,000 years are shown. We, both our environment, and ourselves, are products of this evolutionary history. Our true wealth originates from energy, natural resources and ecosystem services, developed over geologic time. Our true behavioral drivers are a product of our brains being sculpted and honed by 'what worked' in all 3 eras of this graph (but mostly the top 2). The dark line on the bottom is human population, but just as well could be economic output or biomass/fossil fuel use, as they have been highly correlated over this period. The circle "A" indicates the part of the timeline where our economic theory of borrowing and investing into continous explosive growth was formed.
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Old 10-15-2017, 05:22 PM   #372 (permalink)
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What year is at the knee of the curve? It is well before the circled area.

Babylonian debt slavery goes back 6000 years. That's the middle of the Bronze age. And where is the Golden Age?

Four words — Deep. Hot. Abiotic. Oil.
 
Old 10-15-2017, 06:55 PM   #373 (permalink)
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The knee in population corresponds to the adoption of fossil fuel in the 1800's. Population, energy consumption, and World GDP are all highly correlated at nearly 1:1.
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Modern global economic science starting after WWII and formed the foundation of what we used up until today and all occured in the steep and seemingly endless period of growth due to the dense energy wealth of the fossil fuel era.
 
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Old 10-15-2017, 09:06 PM   #374 (permalink)
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Quote:
...our economic theory of borrowing and investing into...
So, the former not the latter. "Modern global economic science" equals Capitalism? Frankfort School Marxism? Keynsianism?
 
Old 10-15-2017, 10:33 PM   #375 (permalink)
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Mainstream Western style modern global capitalism was developed during a time of immense fossil fueled constant growth which has been going on for more one person's lifetime. As depicted by the arrow in the chart. So any other set of world system parameters other than those is a complete blind spot for current economists and politicians who are now in charge.
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It will find the end of it's applicability when total available energy starts to decline. It will also cling to it's role by forcing us to continue to use fossil fuel despite the emissions that are wrecking the planet. As we see with the current administration who was voted in by people who demand that growth continue. If we do not grow USA GDP by 3% every year, for the next 10 years, we will not be able to cover the money we borrowed from the future. The entire world is in this situation and many countries are already bankrupt.
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We have a two headed problem. The only way to maintain energy growth is with continued fossil fuel use which is wrecking the planet. Someday.
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And the only way to keep from catastrophic failure of the world capatlistic economy is with steady growth. Now.

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Old 10-16-2017, 04:11 AM   #376 (permalink)
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I think the greater factor is that these people realize that accepting the evidence and corresponding consequences that follow will ultimately result in them having to alter their cherished lifestyles in undesirable ways. By shouting down the messengers (scientists), they hope to stave off such changes.

It is, obviously, a losing battle. The longer they succeed in their childish game, the worse the outcome will be for them. “You can pay me now, or you can pay me later — with interest and penalties.” They keep choosing the penalties, hoping beyond reason that they will escape somehow at the last moment…
Cheers,Bestia

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Old 10-16-2017, 04:28 AM   #377 (permalink)
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Ireland, and eventually Scotland, are waiting for the remains of hurricane Ophelia to strike later today. These hurricanes never reach the British Isles, as the NE Atlantic is normally too cold to sustain them. This is the first.
The temperature in the UK is expected to reach 24C today, when the average for this time of the year is nearer 12C. Global warming is certainly fact. How big an effect mankind is having on it, I am not qualified to say.
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Old 10-16-2017, 07:36 AM   #378 (permalink)
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The economists all know that it is a balancing game. To balance a viable world economy based on continuous growth vs a reduction in fossil fuel consumption. The required changes to our economic system are so big, they are unfathomable.
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Somehow even the concept of separate nations on our shared planet must go away in order to implement a carbon tax right when it comes out of the ground to put a true price on it's head. But the world economy would irrevocably crash and require the repatriation and redistribution of hidden wealth. There must also unfortunately be a new idealogical crusade against any doctrines that do not accept science and that promote positive population growth. Poor families with seven kids are making their own problems and the Scientists are being steadily outnumbered.
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Old 10-16-2017, 11:19 AM   #379 (permalink)
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That seems to be the only constant with global warming. Redistribution if wealth.
Since that is the only part that hasn't changed then you know that's all its really about.
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Old 10-16-2017, 04:41 PM   #380 (permalink)
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Quote:
Redistribution if wealth.
What if not wealth?

Sendler — Weird graphs. The first is rotated and mirrored to no obvious effect and the second would be much more revealing with a 3rd axis — size.

 
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