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Old 12-12-2018, 02:16 PM   #4051 (permalink)
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Quote:
The general range for a solar battery's useful lifespan is between 5 and 15 years. If you install a solar battery today, you will likely need to replace it at least once to match the 25 to 30 year lifespan of your PV system.
https://www.energysage.com/solar/sol...-solar-panels/

I have provided sources showing that the average solar installation in the Phoenix area would cost $15,000 and have an ROI of eight years.

Enough batteries to run the air conditioning for three hours would also cost $15,000, making the ROI sixteen years--longer than the expected life of the batteries.

So, before you pay them off, you already replace them. If you replace them then the ROI is now twenty-four years, but that is probably longer than the batteries will last, and is approaching the anticipated life expectancy of the solar panels.

If installing batteries becomes 10% cheaper and they last 10% longer you should break even on them.

 
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:18 PM   #4052 (permalink)
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:18 PM   #4053 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard View Post
The Tesla grid storage batteries will pay for themselves very quickly.
Source? I have provided sources completely contradicting this.
 
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:24 PM   #4054 (permalink)
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Your price is way off - a PowerWall costs about $6,000; not $15K.

I am talking about the grid storage system in Australia - it earns over $70,000 PER DAY. They are going to build more of them. That says it all.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla...-cost-revenue/

$66 Million / $34 Million = about 2 years ROI

And they don't need to build / operate a peaker plant - which is a huge savings.

Keep in mind, grid storage will help us NOW, with the generation mix we already have. And it will help us move to 100% renewable energy.
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:28 PM   #4055 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
We grow the population more for more extinction later?
That's where the fundamental disagreement comes from. I've not heard compelling evidence that humans go extinct if the temperature rises 3C. I've been to southern California before, and it's miserable being much higher than 3C above where I live, but people seem to make it work.

We're talking hundreds of years for the full impact from a 3C rise to kick in too, so it's not like people on the coast wake up under water the next day.

At what year can we declare that the global warming apocalypse has not happened? When we're all doing fine in 2060 can I stop worrying?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard View Post
The Tesla grid storage batteries will pay for themselves very quickly.

And that doesn't even count the fact that we no longer would have to build peaker plants - which are VERY EXPENSIVE to build and to operate.
Is there evidence to support this claim? If this were true, then we'd all have battery storage and stop building peaking plants.
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:32 PM   #4056 (permalink)
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What would a 100% renewable energy grid look like where you live? Check it out here:

Our 100% Clean Energy Vision
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:32 PM   #4057 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
It will be this coming Saturday before I'd have a chance to look at You-Tube.This computer I have access to during the week has no audio capability.
I little synopsis of what they say would be a big help.
I know a lot of Ph.D.s I wouldn't trust to feed my cat,so their degree doesn't automatically qualify them as trustworthy,but I'll try for Saturday,losing some of the only day in the week that I can research for myself.
I appreciate the links.
MacKay's book is available in print for loan at most libraries. It is focused on the scale of possible efficiency improvements and and available energy production techniques from an engineering standpoint. Murphy is similar and published his information online. There are many others going back to "The Limits To Growth" from 1972. Richard Heinberg has written several books.
.
I can probably save you the trouble. I think you will find any of this too dissonant to your super optimistic view on renewables to accept.
.
I honestly don't understand how anyone can look at a chart from 2017 that shows that after the concerted world build out of solar for the past 10 years it still only produces .3% of total energy, can cling to wishfully thinking it can power a modern civilization at even a fraction of the current scale.
 
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Old 12-12-2018, 02:43 PM   #4058 (permalink)
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Aerohead doesn't seem to specifically advocate for renewables, but instead for government to mandate lower consumption of fossil fuels, regardless of consequence.

Viewing global warming as an existential threat means that priority #1 isn't maintaining order, or standards of living, but stopping warming immediately.
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Old 12-12-2018, 03:09 PM   #4059 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xist View Post
Aerohead, once again I do not see any correlation between your responses and the posts to which you are responding. Please show us where Sendler said "Burn it all!"

Please explain how we are supposed to transition from carbon to renewable energy, using small words, and spaces after punctuation. Please explain how renewable energy is supposed to keep the poor warm in the winter in this country, let alone in third-world countries. Please explain how semis, ships, and planes are supposed to go electric.

Please stop telling people to earn a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering until you have a P.h.D. in environmental sciences.

Or why don't you stop hanging out with unwashed heathens and find some intellectual peers?
You'd transition off fossil fuel by utilizing any extant technology which would allow it.Rail(which you didn't mention,is already electric.A catenary line or 3rd rail could convert that.
EV Tractor trailers are in the wings.
Ocean vessels would lend themselves to electric propulsion.They need ballast anyway.
Aircraft are problematic.Texas is getting the Shinkansen.Much air travel will be supplanted by the bullet train.They can run on renewable-electricity,are just as fast,at lower cost,with a perfect safety record.Some aircraft have already flown on biofuels.That's not perfect,but is a starting point.

It's this inability for critical thinking which terrifies me.I'm not responsible if you can't make the connection/correlation.
The engineering education mandates a deep dive into thermodynamics and efficiency,chemistry,physics,electric/electronics,metallurgy,dynamics,statics,acoustics, advanced mathematics,computer programming,internal combustion and air pollution,ICE lab,fluid mechanics and a senior project.For electives you can look into economics,marketing,sociology,literature,etc.. I did.
As to a Ph.D. in Environmental Science,you'd have to be much more specific.As I understand it,this could cover a rather comprehensive range in multi-disciplinary areas of study.A neighbor is a Ph.D.in Environmental Science,from the University of North Texas.All he knows about are water issues. I'm in my 15th month reading Ph.D.papers,nearly on a daily basis,so I suppose in a way,they're my peers.I've also been watching the Great Courses,24-lecture series on Physics and Radio Astronomy.(more P.h.D.s)
As to keeping warm,I've done negative-30F with zero heat.I suppose they can do what I did.Well insulated structures are good.Super-insulated,passive solar,earth-sheltered has worked out okay for me.I recommend that.
82 mpg is fun,if they're on a tight mobility budget.They can just follow the Ph.D.s from 1922.I did.
Unwashed heathens.Nice touch.'didn't know you'd been so close by! If you really want to insult me and my network, get more creative.My professional peers will be amused at your language.Perhaps you could coin a new term,expletive.Something really creative,that would make your alma mater proud.
There's a lot of off-the-shelf technology in the public domain, which can,and is being used effectively to transition away from fossil-fuels.
I don't subscribe to the notion that we're locked into business as usual.My experience runs counter to it.
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Old 12-12-2018, 03:41 PM   #4060 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler
There is nothing very paradoxical about humans being forced back to using clotheslines to dry their laundry and horses to plow their fields after fossil fuel gets remote.
I think the point eludes you. The paradox isn't about karmic comeuppance, it's about economic accounting. If you eschew the electric clothes dryer, electric consumption drops (a lot). But solar can't claim the savings. Hence, paradox.

Quote:
Aerohead, once again I do not see any correlation between your responses and the posts to which you are responding. Please show us where Sendler said "Burn it all!"

Please explain how we are supposed to transition from carbon to renewable energy, using small words, and spaces after punctuation. Please explain how renewable energy is supposed to keep the poor warm in the winter in this country, let alone in third-world countries. Please explain how semis, ships, and planes are supposed to go electric.

Please stop telling people to earn a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering until you have a P.h.D. in environmental sciences.

Or why don't you stop hanging out with unwashed heathens and find some intellectual peers?
That last line is a bit harsh. I haven't seen you putting your experiments in the Darko wind tunnel. Are you saying your intellectual peers are not unwashed and heathen?

But you said "Please explain" (three times, but you forgot to click your heels). Allow me.

The explanation lies in the conversation between ferinstance aerohead and All Darc. 60s hippy optimism vs all that dark cynicism about the base nature of humans.

Quote:
Please explain how we are supposed to transition from carbon to renewable energy, using small words, and spaces after punctuation.

https://xkcd.com/thing-explainer/

Quote:
Please explain how renewable energy is supposed to keep the poor warm in the winter in this country, let alone in third-world countries.
Materials science. Push the problem down to the molecular level ("there's plenty of room at the bottom"). For instance by making glass that is energy harvesting and photochromic and has an inner layer of Cloud Gel. Then distributing it on an industrial scale, while simultaneously doing everything else as well.

Quote:
Please explain how semis, ships, and planes are supposed to go electric.
They make one last shipment of 3D printers and generative adversarial AI, and they everyone just stays home.

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