The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[litesong]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Sooner or later global warming will be undeniable...

You continue well behind the curve.

[oil pan 4]

The only people denying that the climate changes are the ones that think the earth is 4,000 years old.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Allowing a pass for developing countries to pollute and consume fossil fuels itself is an admission that fossil fuel consumption and wealth/well-being go hand and hand. If we're talking about reducing CO2 emissions, we're talking about burning less hydrocarbons, and therefore reducing wealth and well-being.

Energy/ Economy-human wellbeing/ Population have been highly correlated at nearly 1:1:1. Total world primary energy by source is still 87% from fossil carbon. Gross Domestic Product could be rebranded Gross Domestic Burning. Additions of solar and wind (actual production- not capacity) are not quite keeping pace with growth and development. They are not able to displace anything. Not to mention lift up 1 billion people that don't even have reliable electricity. Or 3 billion that still cook and heat with wood. Germany is a world leader in working to replace all fossil carbon energy.
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Here is the latest 2018 chart for primary energy consumption by source for Germany. Solar and wind up to 4.6%. Double their value if you like for being electricity instead of thermal if they could achieve the full electrification of all remaining liquid fuel and heat processes.
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[freebeard]

Styxhexenhammer dropped a big black pill this morning: The "Climate Change" Elephant in the Room: Overpopulation

Population growth - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth
Global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.616 billion [3] in 2018. It is expected to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

OTOH, Elon Musk is right now talking about a single Starship carrying 100 people will be capable of 1000 flight per year. 10 ships for a million people. Production of Raptor engines is the constraint.

He's amazing. Paraphrasing, 'the best part is no part, the best process is no process.' 'The Tesla will work on Mars, maybe we'll take a Boring machine.'

[redpoint5]

The census has been lurking around lately. Maybe we'll have a better idea what population has been up to soon.

My prediction is we never hit 10B, and start the downward slope in 40 years. Kids are a big burden, and technology a big distraction... then if genetic engineering becomes all the craze, that's almost instantly the end of population growth.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The census has been lurking around lately. Maybe we'll have a better idea what population has been up to soon.

My prediction is we never hit 10B, and start the downward slope in 40 years. Kids are a big burden, and technology a big distraction... then if genetic engineering becomes all the craze, that's almost instantly the end of population growth.

If we work as a world and invest in Africa to lift up the development and set free the women.
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Current world fertility rates.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
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[sendler]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Styxhexenhammer dropped a big black pill this morning: The "Climate Change" Elephant in the Room: Overpopulation


OTOH, Elon Musk is right now talking about a single Starship carrying 100 people will be capable of 1000 flight per year. 10 ships for a million people. Production of Raptor engines is the constraint.

There is nothing for us on Mars. The atmospheric pressure is .006 bar. 10X below the Armstrong limit at which the water in your lungs boils at body temp.
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There is no magnetic field. Any atmosphere that does boil out gets blown away by Solar wind.
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It is really too bad Musk insists on wasting precious engineering resources on replacing life on Earth with life on Mars. Human expeditions to mars are a one way suicide mission and it is delusional to think that anything more than a few hundred people will make their way to die on Mars before we realize we have entered the decreasing side of an ER/EI energy trap here on Earth and decide it would be much wiser to devote our remaining resources to build out what we need for 10 billion people to survive here.

[freebeard]

Mars? Another gravity well. I guess I'm bent by an old Neil Young song:

Well, I dreamed I saw the silver space ships flying
In the yellow haze of the sun.
There were children crying and colors flying
All around the chosen ones.

All in a dream, all in a dream
The loading had begun.

Flying Mother Nature's silver seed to a new home in the sun.
Flying Mother Nature's silver seed to a new home.

After the Gold Rush

Think what we might learn at Phobos or Iapetus.

[RedDevil]

Surface settlements on the Moon or Mars have no chance whatsoever. On the moon the day/night cycle of almost one month causes extreme thermal stresses, also moon dust is a stronger abrasive agent than anything on earth, and it is impossible to keep it from entering seals and the like. An atmosphere would quickly erode the sharp edges of moon dust, but the moon lacks an atmosphere.

Mars is really cold, also the soil is quite toxic and the atmosphere is very thin. Neither Mars nor the Moon provide protection against cosmic radiation like the Earth does.
Only a thick enough layer of rock could provide protection against that.
It is Tunnel or Die.

Then, if you need to tunnel to create a habitat, you may wonder why we don't do it here. So much easier. Just tunnel, make an independent life support system, and presto. No need for fancy rockets. Just need a slab of rock.

It should not be too hard to figure out why we don't.
So why would we do that on the Moon, or Mars?

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

It should not be too hard to figure out why we don't.
So why would we do that on the Moon, or Mars?

Not because it's easy, but because it's hard, and because it's there.