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Old 04-29-2020, 05:38 PM   #8721 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
The point to be taken is that if data generated daily on the ground, ground truth if you will, trumps (there I said it) models. Don't double down on the models, you might take an aero to the hea knee.
That's a good point, and is relevant to the coronavirus video I'm watching now. The basic premise is that models are always wrong, a point that Scott Adams makes. Models are useful to a point, but they are subject to reality, not the other way 'round. I'll link the video in the Covid thread.

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Old 04-29-2020, 05:44 PM   #8722 (permalink)
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If your ears are operating,can you not simply listen to Fauci's narrative,and deduce that he knows something about epidemiology?
Can't you see that our President is using an 'enemies closer' strategy with Dr. Fauci?
Quote:
I don't care...
I don't...
...And who cares?
I care about you[r almighty soul]. As they said in the Army "there's always 10% who never get the word."
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:52 PM   #8723 (permalink)
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predictions

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Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
We were supposed to see at least 200,000 and possibly millions killed by China virus even with the lock down. Reminds me a lot of the global warming predictions and how we have to do all kinds of ridiculous nonsense to save our selves.
Must be read herring sesson in texas.
*A very bad flu season in the USA is 60,000 dead,in 12-months.
*As of yesterday we were at 58,300 dead for about a month-and-a-half.
*Extrapolating for a twelve-month period suggests 466,400 deaths in the USA.
*No one knows in advance how long the virus will be with us,or if it will return.
*Obviously,human life means nothing to over one half the US population,so anything to protect it WOULD appear to be 'ridiculous',and 'nonsense'.
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All the anthropogenic greenhouse gases are still in the atmosphere,and will be for a thousand years.Warming must continue,it's just physics.If you know how to add,then the trend is obvious.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:01 PM   #8724 (permalink)
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Quote:
*As of yesterday we were at 58,300 dead for about a month-and-a-half.
*Extrapolating for a twelve-month period suggests 466,400 deaths in the USA.
*No one knows in advance how long the virus will be with us,or if it will return.
That's a straight line. What kind of epidemiological curve-fitting produces that?
Quote:
*Obviously,human life means nothing to over one half the US population,so anything to protect it WOULD appear to be 'ridiculous',and 'nonsense'.
I hear abortions and castrating little boys is down due to Corona-chan.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:11 PM   #8725 (permalink)
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President

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Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Can't you see that our President is using an 'enemies closer' strategy with Dr. Fauci?

I care about you[r almighty soul]. As they said in the Army "there's always 10% who never get the word."
Trump is a first rate ,second rate man.I've rarely been interested in anything he has to say,or 'strategy' that he believes he's in possession of.He talks too much.
Dr. Fauci,on the other hand,does offer an informed,linear,coherent narrative,germane to the mitigation conversation.
Don't worry about my soul,I don't have one.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:20 PM   #8726 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerohead View Post
*Obviously,human life means nothing to over one half the US population,so anything to protect it WOULD appear to be 'ridiculous',and 'nonsense'.
Where's the evidence for this obvious statement of fact?

Protecting life encompasses a larger domain than simply persisting. There's some balance to be had between safeguarding life, and living it.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:23 PM   #8727 (permalink)
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what kind

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Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
That's a straight line. What kind of epidemiological curve-fitting produces that?

I hear abortions and castrating little boys is down due to Corona-chan.
For a nation that doesn't understand arithmetic,I'm extrapolating the most simplistic mind picture I can imagine.
If 15,000 dead is a typical flu year,and 3X that is a 'bad' flu year,then having 58,300 dead in a month and a half could represent that,if all infection/mortality curves are added together,for all fifty states,and 12-months,simple arithmetic gets us to a possible 466-thousand,by March,2021.
Depending on how many Bolsanaro's are out there in the world,by the time the virus has visited everyone on a jet plane,we could be looking at millions dead.Unless New Zealand gets to run all governments.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:29 PM   #8728 (permalink)
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evidence

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Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
Where's the evidence for this obvious statement of fact?

Protecting life encompasses a larger domain than simply persisting. There's some balance to be hand between keeping life, and living it.
It's on the nightly news.That's not to imply that you'd recognize it.Some of your passed comments suggest that a lot escapes your attention.It would remain a mystery to you,hiding in plain view.
Your idea of 'living' could mean a death sentence for your countrymen.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:32 PM   #8729 (permalink)
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I admire your enthusiasm for nostalgia.
Also 5 years isn't climate change. The IPCC uses rolling 30 year blocks. The report used to paint the dire picture of the oceans run away temperature and acidity was retracted in nature so that suggestion isn't valid.
I don't see how that has anything to do with the data presented.
Nostalgia? Oceans? Suggestions? Non of that is in the graphs.

Here is the hard proof of human activity responsible for well over 90% of climate change. But you keep dodging the obvious.

I don't care whether variances in solar activity or cosmic radiation adds or detracts 0,01% or 1% or maybe 10% - it is all peanuts compared to emissions caused by human activity.
Focusing on those is like escapism, denying our responsibility and attributing any problems to force majeure.

How convenient.
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:04 PM   #8730 (permalink)
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For a nation that doesn't understand arithmetic,I'm extrapolating the most simplistic mind picture I can imagine.
To mis-quote Han Solo "I can imagine a lot!".

RedDevil — I think it's backwards, but I point to R.B.Fuller's concept of the trim tab.
Quote:
When I thought about steering the course of the "Spaceship Earth" and all of humanity, I saw most people trying to turn the boat by pushing the bow around.
I saw that by being all the way at the tail of the ship, by just kicking my foot to one side or the other, I could create the "low pressure" which would turn the whole ship. If ever someone wanted to write my epitaph, I would want it to say "Call me Trimtab".
https://enq.translatum.gr/wiki/Buckminster_Fuller

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