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Old 05-25-2021, 07:35 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I think it's safe to say, more than 3 years because manufacturing can't ramp up so fast. Probably safe to say less than 20 years. I think about 7 sounds right.

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Old 05-25-2021, 08:19 PM   #12 (permalink)
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In a decade, EVs have gone from 0% to 3% of vehicle sales. It seems unreasonable to expect the next 47% will occur in 7 years, though I suppose it's possible. Sales would need to increase about 50% each year.

7 years would be the very next generation of EVs, meaning whatever comes next after the soon to be released EVs such as the F150, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and Kia EV6. Do we expect to go from 3% of EV sales in the soon to be released generation, to 50% in the very next generation?

That's not to mention that EVs represent 3% of sales with $7,500-$10,000 in tax subsidies. Not only do they need to get better, they need to get a lot better; like $10,000 better (without actually costing that much extra).

Finally, those for whom EVs are a great fit likely already have an EV. Those wealthy enough to have multiple cars and a garage they can charge in. Getting each additional sale will become difficult as those whom an EV is not a good fit must have their obstacles removed (price, lack of charging infrastructure, limited range, slow charging).
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Old 05-25-2021, 09:45 PM   #13 (permalink)
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There's not enough battery stuff available to increase large battery electric vehicles by 50% each year.
The battery market only seems to be able to handle tens of thousands of additional vehicles worth of growth each year.
Unless invading another country and taking their lithium is on the table.

And just think the radical left is trying to federalize building and zoning code. I'm sure that will make way more apartments and condos with no charging and a lot less single family homes with garages.
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Old 05-26-2021, 03:07 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Considering how most of the EVs I saw on the wild were quite fancy, more focused on showing how supposedly better than an ICE-powered counterpart they were than on actual efficiency, it becomes harder to address actual needs of an average Joe while retaining cost at a reasonable level. And even if some project meant to address the actual needs of the average Joe does it while not becoming prohibitively expensive, it's worth to consider how some design features may be received with some skepticism by customers.
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Old 05-26-2021, 10:39 AM   #15 (permalink)
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We have all the raw materials required for expanded battery production here. We just outsourced all the processing to another country and it will take years to rebuild that capability at a higher cost.
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Old 05-26-2021, 11:51 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Well, it's going to get to a point where people start realizing:

- My neighbor's Tesla is 10 years old, shows no signs of stopping
- It still does 0-60 in 4 seconds
- I've bought and disposed of 2 ICE cars in the meantime
- Why would I buy another ICE car?
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Old 05-26-2021, 11:54 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Its cheaper or you can get lower monthly payments?
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Old 05-26-2021, 04:02 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ME_Andy View Post
Well, it's going to get to a point where people start realizing:

- My neighbor's Tesla is 10 years old, shows no signs of stopping
- It still does 0-60 in 4 seconds
- I've bought and disposed of 2 ICE cars in the meantime
- Why would I buy another ICE car?
Original Roadster?

Why did you dispose of 2 ICE cars, and how old were they when you bought vs when you sold?

You'd have to answer why you'd buy another ICE.

I would buy a hybrid or PHEV for trips beyond 200 miles. Most modern vehicles are extremely reliable and have low maintenance, requiring just an oil change once a year and perhaps other fluid changes every decade.

So far on my 2006 Acura (bought in 2010) with 120,000 miles on it, I've changed the gear oil once, engine oil every year, radiator fluid once, brake fluid once, replaced one 12v battery, bought 1 set of tires, and the power steering fluid was changed during a recall that replaced the hose. It's probably got another 100k trouble-free miles left.

I'd steer clear of the Roadster
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Old 05-26-2021, 04:09 PM   #19 (permalink)
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From 2008 to 2020 plug in hybrids and electric cars went from 0% to less than 4% of new sales.
2030 might see 10% of new sales being electric and plug in hybrid.
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Old 05-26-2021, 04:53 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ME_Andy View Post
- Why would I buy another ICE car?
I don't know why you would but I can tell you why I would: Cost.

As much as I love EV's and would be thrilled to own a Tesla, I can't afford one. I'm spending at my limit right now as it is:

Monthly:
Payments: $180
Insurance:$150
Fuel:$100-$200
Repairs/maintenance About $120/month average for past three years.

If I traded it all in and got a Tesla how would that compare?

Add to that I only have two years left of payments. I'm driving a full sized car at that price and would prefer a minivan if o changed vehicles. I also prefer FWD or AWD over RWD since I live in a snowy area and I'm not completely sold on RWD yet. Also, heading south it's 269 miles to the nearest Tesla super charging station unless I want to add 3 hours to the trip.

But please, feel free to try to convince me to get an EV again. I love EVs!

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