how much longer for the ICE now Americia's best selling Vehicle has gone electric?

[Flakbadger]

Well having bought an EV used, myself, I can say with certainty I'll gladly buy a newer one when something becomes available that's not $35,000, and has a range greater than a hundred miles. I understand that I'll be waiting a while, but I'm content to continue driving my $11,500 Leaf until then.

[cRiPpLe_rOoStEr]

Originally Posted by ME_Andy

Data point: Ford expects 40% EV sales by 2030.

Worldwide or only at the American domestic market?

[JSH]

Originally Posted by cRiPpLe_rOoStEr

Worldwide or only at the American domestic market?

Global. Unless things change the USA will continue to lag Europe and China in EV adoption.

For 2020 in Europe EVs made up 6.2% of sales and PHEVs were 5.2%
For 2020 in the USA BEVs made up 1.8% of sales. I can't find PHEV market share for 2020 but they were 0.9% last month.

[redpoint5]

If EVs become way better than ICE by virtue of batteries that suck a lot less and abundant charging infrastructure, then the transition would occur relatively rapidly. It's not like a higher single digit sales figure abroad is indicative of a permanent trend.

The timing isn't right for EVs for most US consumers. There isn't enough battery supply to manufacture them in larger quantities, there isn't adequate charging infrastructure, and batteries are still terrible.

All that said, I'll probably own one in the next couple years because I'm an early adopter and an EV would suit some of my needs well.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

If EVs become way better than ICE by virtue of batteries that suck a lot less and abundant charging infrastructure, then the transition would occur relatively rapidly. It's not like a higher single digit sales figure abroad is indicative of a permanent trend.

The trend is codified in law in Europe

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by JSH

The trend is codified in law in Europe

I meant relative to US adoption.

Hitting 50% sales has more to do with EVs becoming better over time than anything else.

Gaia isn't going to reward Europe because 5% of their vehicle purchases are EV.

... and I always feel compelled to point out that I'm a huge fan of EVs, and they certainly make sense in urban setting where particulate and NOx emissions concentrate, and where trip distances are shorter. They are slightly less useful in a suburban setting, and very impractical for rural areas.

[freebeard]

...and very impractical for rural areas.

A road trip vehicle perhaps, but an off-grid Crosley Farm-O-Road would be eminently practical:


http://gardentractortalk.com/forums/...2893612805.jpg

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

A road trip vehicle perhaps, but an off-grid Crosley Farm-O-Road would be eminently practical:


http://gardentractortalk.com/forums/...2893612805.jpg

Anything can be practical if cost is no concern. Who is going to spend $40k on a farm buggy?

The problem with EVs isn't that they are worthless, but that they compete against alternatives with better value propositions to most people.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I meant relative to US adoption.

Hitting 50% sales has more to do with EVs becoming better over time than anything else.

I don't think EVs really need to get better - they need to get cheaper. I think a lot of people would be OK with waiting to charge a car for 30 minutes every 200 miles on a road trip if that EV cost the same or less than a gas car and saved them money on fuel every day.

Other countries building economy of scale for EVs will help reduce costs. Car companies building EVs on dedicated platforms optimized for EVs will help bring down cost as will going form building tens of thousands of a car to hundreds of thousands of that car. With volume comes cost savings.

The big unknown is charging. Will we build out the charging network necessary to make long distance EV travel possible? I don't know. It will happen organically in some areas were there are enough EVs to justify building out the network. Other rural and remote areas will need to be subsidized just like we subsidize building road networks, telephones, internet and other infrastructure into rural areas.

[freebeard]

For those who don't appreciate the classics, here are three offings in the $12K range



www.superatv.com: THE BEST ELECTRIC UTVS OF 2020

$1.6K penalty over the gas version. Bet there's no sickle mower option. Or street legality.