The hybrid ticking time bomb

[JSH]

A mild hybrid improves fuel economy by about 15%. A full hybrid by about 30%. No need to make theoretically calculations there are plenty of vehicles with standard and hybrid powertrains.



You can replace electronic modules as long as they are manufactured and sold. Automakers only are required to provide spare parts while the vehicle has a warranty. After that they are free to discontinue them. Popular models will get aftermarket support but with low volume models or even low volume trims you may be out of luck

[Isaac Zachary]

With hybrids it's more than just the battery and motor-generator(s). There's a reason they feel lethargic with a drained or dead HV battery. The engine is tuned for fuel mileage (e.g. atkinson cycle) which you can't do in non-hybrids without making them feel lethargic or some other disadvantage.

In other words, taking the battery out of the equation may make only a 10% change, but it isn't the only part of the equation.

[redpoint5]

... then we're back to the junkyard method of keeping an old car on the road. An old electronic module from the junkyard is more likely to be useful than a 15 year old traction battery. What percent of vehicles get scrapped because infotainment components couldn't be sourced?

Only way I can see hybrids or EVs on the road longer term is if 3rd parties create affordable batteries. This goes back to the main topic of this thread; that traction batteries have a shelf-life that is independent of use. If I mothballed a conventional vehicle for 20 years, I could expect it to run well after changing fluids. Not so with anything with a traction battery.

[freebeard]

This Photochop dates to 2013. The first entry in my Photoshops album.



Prius donor [underbody aero] with Golf suspension, 36HP drivetrain and Porsche alternator/cooling fan running at 1:1 off the crank with all eleven fan blades.

The premise was that improving the Cd from 0.41 to >0.28 for the 36HP engine would break the stock Beetle 40MPG barrier. Prolly equal to the hybrid drivetrain.

[Nathan jones]

You can get new cells. Easy and cheap to replace. I think two centre cells have been common, if there are any common faults

https://melasta.net/products/7-2v-6a...for-hybrid-car

Like pattern parts

Most likely they made them for Toyota to start, like the 100f "Panasonic" super caps in the bcm that were Chinese with the labels removed

...still awesome gear

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

... then we're back to the junkyard method of keeping an old car on the road. An old electronic module from the junkyard is more likely to be useful than a 15 year old traction battery. What percent of vehicles get scrapped because infotainment components couldn't be sourced?

No idea - we are early into the touchscreen to control everything days. We do know that 1.2% of vehicles sold last year had over 200K miles. High mileage cars exist but they aren't by any means common.

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Only way I can see hybrids or EVs on the road longer term is if 3rd parties create affordable batteries. This goes back to the main topic of this thread; that traction batteries have a shelf-life that is independent of use. If I mothballed a conventional vehicle for 20 years, I could expect it to run well after changing fluids. Not so with anything with a traction battery.

I'm betting 3rd party batteries would become a lot more common if hybrids were 100% of new vehicle sales instead of 7%. They already exist today.

[Isaac Zachary]

The third party battery is a still a big, "what-if?" As Ecky said, they're as good as their warranty. Bumblebee might be ok, I have no idea, but aren't that much cheaper than an OEM battery that will last at least another 15 years.

As for $70 for some random brand module, that's just crazy as you either buy a few and start the whack-a-mole process or you buy all 28 modules for more than a true, brand-new battery from a Toyota Dealer.

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

With hybrids it's more than just the battery and motor-generator(s). There's a reason they feel lethargic with a drained or dead HV battery. The engine is tuned for fuel mileage (e.g. atkinson cycle) which you can't do in non-hybrids without making them feel lethargic or some other disadvantage.

In other words, taking the battery out of the equation may make only a 10% change, but it isn't the only part of the equation.

This is correct that the hybrid system itself is only a piece - although my new Miata (MX-5) does in fact run the Atkinson cycle without a hybrid system. It does this with complex, sensitive and highly responsive engine control.

The Insight would never have been sold with a 1L engine. Or, if it was, it wouldn't have been sold with the gearing it had. There are highways in the US where it needs to be in 2nd to ascend, without assist. 18 seconds to 60 simply would not be marketable. Change the gearing and you lose another 20%.

With a modern Prius, some of that efficiency comes from the engine literally not having a belt drive - every component runs on a high voltage motor, and operates to its own needs, rather than having to clutch on and off of the engine's RPM.

~

Off topic, but adopting a higher base voltage (24 or 48) would likely measurably improve non-hybrid vehicle efficiency. I understand why it isn't done, but at some point that bandaid may need to be ripped off.

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by freebeard

This Photochop dates to 2013. The first entry in my Photoshops album.



Prius donor [underbody aero] with Golf suspension, 36HP drivetrain and Porsche alternator/cooling fan running at 1:1 off the crank with all eleven fan blades.

The premise was that improving the Cd from 0.41 to >0.28 for the 36HP engine would break the stock Beetle 40MPG barrier. Prolly equal to the hybrid drivetrain.

A modern Jetta will achieve 40-45mpg at 75mph. I'm personally ignorant about these old air cooled engines, but I don't imagine that stock Beetle was getting 40mpg at anything above 40mph - a speed at which a stock Insight will happily cruise at 120mpg, apples to apples.

[Ecky]

Originally Posted by Isaac Zachary

The third party battery is a still a big, "what-if?" As Ecky said, they're as good as their warranty. Bumblebee might be ok, I have no idea, but aren't that much cheaper than an OEM battery that will last at least another 15 years.

As for $70 for some random brand module, that's just crazy as you either buy a few and start the whack-a-mole process or you buy all 28 modules for more than a true, brand-new battery from a Toyota Dealer.

Honda's OEM batteries stopped being from the original supplier after 2010ish, and became hardly better than aftermarket - probably because they used the same cheap Chinese cells, because the original Japanese ones simply did not exist anymore. After another 5 years there simply wasn't an OEM battery to purchase, period.