The Slow Death of the Internal Combustion Engine

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by JSH

I don't find it odd at all. The defective pack likely had a manufacturing defect. If it was serviceable assembly the Tesla shop could have diagnosed the problem and then repaired the pack. Since Tesla glues their packs together the whole pack had to be replaced.

Why did you NOT view the link to find the cause?
It wasn't a pack (battery) failure after all.
You are just negative without even checking the facts.

The point that comes clear from the video is that the vast majority of packs do 300,000 miles of hard use and hard charging without any discernible degradation at all.

Tesla battery packs, and all other batteries built to that standard, are no longer wear items. Battery replacement should be the exception, not the norm.

Once EV build costs get near or below ICE build costs there's no stopping them.
Everywhere there's electricity there can be EVs. The availability of EVs will only help electrify poor countries.

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Wow, I've got a friend in New Zealand right now and I had no idea the country is struggling. I figured they were similar to Australia with high cost of living and high wages.

The wages are higher than here but I suspect the cost of living is too high for many. Actually since the government takes a lot more in taxes I'm not sure how much more they get compared to our minimum wage.

I saw too many examples of extreme poverty. It was disproportionately among the nonwhite people.

[Taylor95]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Why did you NOT view the link to find the cause?
It wasn't a pack (battery) failure after all.
You are just negative without even checking the facts.

The point that comes clear from the video is that the vast majority of packs do 300,000 miles of hard use and hard charging without any discernible degradation at all.

Tesla battery packs, and all other batteries built to that standard, are no longer wear items. Battery replacement should be the exception, not the norm.

Once EV build costs get near or below ICE build costs there's no stopping them.
Everywhere there's electricity there can be EVs. The availability of EVs will only help electrify poor countries.

What happens when people keep driving when the batteries should be replaced? A lot of people here like to drive until the car gives up. Would the batteries potentially short and catch fire?

The only people that will own EVs in poor countries will be the rich.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Why did you NOT view the link to find the cause?
It wasn't a pack (battery) failure after all.
You are just negative without even checking the facts.

The point that comes clear from the video is that the vast majority of packs do 300,000 miles of hard use and hard charging without any discernible degradation at all.

Tesla battery packs, and all other batteries built to that standard, are no longer wear items. Battery replacement should be the exception, not the norm.

Once EV build costs get near or below ICE build costs there's no stopping them.
Everywhere there's electricity there can be EVs. The availability of EVs will only help electrify poor countries.

From the article you linked:

The first Tesloop car is a 2015 Model S 85D that now has over 430,000 miles on the odometer. That car lost 6% of its original battery capacity or about 20 miles of rated range in its first few months in operation as previously shared. That is worse than typical, as reported by Eletrek. We learned our battery’s degradation was largely due to charging to 100% of capacity multiple times per day between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. The distances between the Tesla Supercharger stations along that route made it necessary. Tesla has built more stations since, allowing for several quicker charges en route. Changing to a practice of keeping the Charge Limit set at 95% slowed the rate of degradation to nearly nothing. That was reassuring, but over-charging is not the only cause of loss of capacity.

That same Model S had its battery replaced twice. The first replacement you can chalk up to our naive charging enthusiasm. The second was a defective battery. We noticed a sudden increase in the rate it was losing capacity and knew something was wrong.

As you can see in the chart below, the loss rate was highest in the last week of August and the first week of September 2017. The battery lost 6.4% of its capacity in those weeks. That is approximately the same loss we saw in the first 194,000 miles, all gone in only 4,500 miles. The battery capacity ultimately dropped 15%. What happened?

Tesla Service reported:

“Diagnostics show the high voltage battery assembly is not functioning appropriately. Removed and replaced the high voltage battery assembly. Replaced with a 90kw permanent battery replacement. Pushed updated firmware to ensure proper communications. Upon completion, function test was performed to confirm concern has been rectified.”

Their 2015 Model S 85D is on its 3rd battery in 5 years. What facts did I miss concerning this car and the battery failure?



As to their other cars:

Driving 300K miles in three years as a shuttle between LA and Vegas is not a normal usage case. Eight vehicles used a shuttles don't tell us anything about "the vast majority of packs"

The typical driver in the USA drives 15,000 miles a year. Will a Tesla go 300K and 20 years on the original battery? We don't know.

[RedDevil]

So there was something wrong with the assembly. So much for trying to make things modular; apparently that caused it to fail.

300,000 miles in 3 years is not a normal use case, but there's no other way. There are no 10 year old packs made in 2015 yet. The factor age had not been sufficiently tested as there is no way to speed up time.

The other 2 factors that do influence battery life - heat and mileage - have been tested, and most packs have passed that test with flying colors.

If a Tesla battery fails, it is highly unlikely to be due to faulty cells.
Because those cells are tiny, and grouped in series of 47 each with a lead that acts as a fuse. If a cell shorts it will blow its lead and be isolated, the 46 neighboring cells still provide almost 98% of the capacity.
Only if a whole string of cells at the same level fail will that cause a serious degradation of the battery.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

So there was something wrong with the assembly. So much for trying to make things modular; apparently that caused it to fail.

I thought you said the pack didn't fail and I didn't read the article you linked?

Edit: The article does not say the cause of the failure.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

300,000 miles in 3 years is not a normal use case, but there's no other way. There are no 10 year old packs made in 2015 yet. The factor age had not been sufficiently tested as there is no way to speed up time.

You could just say we don't know instead of claiming that battery replacement isn't an issue.

[RedDevil]

I agree that (Model S) pack failed. It wasn't a chemistry related problem though.
I was actually referring to the Model X pack, as it stood out against the other Model X-es in their fleet.
I liked that link as it was no typical Tesla fan brouhaha. It pointed out what went wrong and what went right. It is a pity to take a onesided view from such balanced reporting.

The point I'm making is that these failures have nothing to do with longevity or reliability.
A faulty assembly was faulty from day 1. It only became apparent later. But it is not a situation that would occur in anything but a small minority of packs.

The fact that there's no way to test for age on new batteries does not mean there's nothing that can be said about it. Average Tesla pack degradation seems to reduce rather than accelerate over time. So it is fair to expect degradation will not dramatically increase any time soon.

I maintain that todays battery technology has reached a level of reliability that ensures most EV buyers will never have to swap the battery.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

I agree that (Model S) pack failed. It wasn't a chemistry related problem though.
I was actually referring to the Model X pack, as it stood out against the other Model X-es in their fleet.
I liked that link as it was no typical Tesla fan brouhaha. It pointed out what went wrong and what went right. It is a pity to take a onesided view from such balanced reporting.

The point I'm making is that these failures have nothing to do with longevity or reliability.
A faulty assembly was faulty from day 1. It only became apparent later. But it is not a situation that would occur in anything but a small minority of packs.

The fact that there's no way to test for age on new batteries does not mean there's nothing that can be said about it. Average Tesla pack degradation seems to reduce rather than accelerate over time. So it is fair to expect degradation will not dramatically increase any time soon.

I maintain that todays battery technology has reached a level of reliability that ensures most EV buyers will never have to swap the battery.

My understanding from reading the article is the "eHawk" is the Model S that has had two packs fail. The 7 Model Xs are on their first packs so far.

Two battery pack failures out of 10 is a really poor failure rate.

[RedDevil]

You are right. I mistakenly took eHawk to be a Model X. It is the S.

Two pack failures over 3 million miles does not worry me in the least. Especially if Tesla replaced the packs for free. That's a per mile cost of 0c ?

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

You are right. I mistakenly took eHawk to be a Model X. It is the S.

Two pack failures over 3 million miles does not worry me in the least. Especially if Tesla replaced the packs for free. That's a per mile cost of 0c ?

Tesloop’s Model S had the front drive unit replaced at 17,441 miles, the 1st battery at 194,237 miles, and the 2nd battery at 324,044 miles. Would you find that acceptable if you were a normal customer and you had to pay out-of-pocket for both packs? Would you even pay to replace a battery pack on a vehicle with 200K miles?

What if this was a BMW E-Class. Would it be acceptable to replace a transmission at 17,441, the engine at 194,237 miles, and another engine at 324,004 miles?


Yes, the cost to Tesloop was $0. That is because their business model was to take advantage of Tesla’s 8-year warranty and free supercharging to run an unlicensed shuttle service. Tesloop is not the typical EV customer.