What would it take for the U.S. to enter a recession?

[serialk11r]

Hold on, anyone can get 21/hour??? While that's not that much for me, it's not insignificant. As long as you get laid off you can get it even if you were making way more? I always thought there would be a catch.

[Ecky]

This is the first "source" I found on Google. Verify.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...ment-insurance

The final language is still being drafted, but progress could be derailed over unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. The bill would pay $600 per week to unemployed workers, on top of what they would receive at the state level. Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, and Ben Sasse argued that this could add up to more than many regular salaries, causing people to quit their jobs.

“You’re literally incentivizing taking people out of the workforce,” said Graham. “If this is not a drafting error then it’s the worst idea I’ve seen in a long time.”

Graham’s proposal was to cap UI benefits at a person’s normal salary, up to $600 per week. But his group got swift pushback from its own party. Finance Committee chair Chuck Grassley said the bill already contains incentives for businesses to keep employees on the payroll, and nobody who leaves a job voluntarily is eligible to receive UI. He rejected the caps as unfeasible, given the urgency of passing the bill.

“Each state has a different UI program, so the drafters opted for a temporary across-the-board UI boost of $600, which can deliver needed aid in a timely manner rather than burning time to create a different administrative regime for each state,” said Grassley spokesperson George Hartmann.

So, as I understand it, unemployment is normally capped at 2/3 of your salary in the best quarter of the last 12 months, up to a maximum of $430 per week, which is around $10.75 an hour full time equivalent. However, this bill will be giving a flat extra $600 per week to everyone collecting unemployment, and remove the need to be looking for a job (though honestly how could that be enforced right now). $1030 / 40 = $25.75, and you'd have needed to be making around $33,500 per year before getting laid off to collect the full amount.

Get laid off from Walmart and for the next 4 months you can collect the equivalent of a $53,500 annual salary.

I normally make a fair bit more than this, but I'm likely to see reduced hours and, if I'm just looking at take-home pay, I might break even or even be slightly better off with unemployment, nevermind also having a ton of time to work on my house.

[Fat Charlie]

That's why the Rs were calling it a disincentive to work. Which is actually what's called for right now.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Ecky

So, as I understand it, unemployment is normally capped at 2/3 of your salary in the best quarter of the last 12 months, up to a maximum of $430 per week, which is around $10.75 an hour full time equivalent. However, this bill will be giving a flat extra $600 per week to everyone collecting unemployment, and remove the need to be looking for a job (though honestly how could that be enforced right now). $1030 / 40 = $25.75, and you'd have needed to be making around $33,500 per year before getting laid off to collect the full amount.

Unemployment insurance is run by states and varies from state to state. The number of weeks you can collect varies. (NC is the lowest at 12 weeks and Massachusetts is the longest at 30 weeks) The amount you can collect is based on income but is also capped. (Mississippi has the lowest cap at $235 week and Massachusetts has the highest at $790 per week)

People will get what they would normal get from their state + the $600 a week from the Feds. That is HUGE. When I was laid off in 2008/2009 the federal stimulus bill kicked in an additional $20 a week but Alabama refused to take the Federal money to fund it. I got the max of about $225 a week. I don't know if states can refuse to hand out the extra $600 a week this time.

Just a note - you do have to pay incomes taxes on unemployment. They will either withhold taxes from your weekly check or give you the full amount and leave it to you to pay a lump sum when you file your taxes. Also, a warning, if you under withhold taxes by more than 10% the IRS charges a penalty


Weeks of benefits and max benefit per state:



https://howmuch.net/articles/unemplo...efits-by-state

[Ecky]

I wonder, does anyone know about collecting benefits from UI for being reduced to part time?

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Ecky

I wonder, does anyone know about collecting benefits from UI for being reduced to part time?

I haven't seen anything that gives unemployment to workers that are still working but have reduced hours.

This is what our CEO sent everyone today.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coro...s-answers.html

I don't know the full tally but I'm going to guess we laid off more than 10,000 workers this week. All North American plants are idled.

[redpoint5]

You think all this economic turmoil and layoffs will cause a net increase, decrease, or keep prices about steady for new vehicles (and products in general). What will happen with used car values?

On the one hand, there's little new production (limited supply), but on the other, nobody can afford anything (limited demand).

[Ecky]

I'm thinking luxury vehicle purchases will tank even more from lack of consumer demand than lack of supply. Most trucks will probably have some weak sales numbers due to high prices as well.

Cheap gasoline (to the extent that it is now) is temporary, in large part due to a Saudi-Russia price war, but it wasn't enough to halt SUV sales. I doubt it'll be much of a factor in what people buy - cost of ownership doesn't seem to be nearly as much of a factor as price to get into a vehicle for most.

I think to some extent we'll see deals on most new cars, but more likely we'll see manufacturers ramp up lower trim and more basic vehicles. Ford might be in some trouble given that they don't have anything to sell for any less than twice the price of some of Nissan's and Mitsubishi's vehicles.

Used car prices will likely go up. New, probably down ultimately but I can't say for the short term.

[freebeard]

During the Great Depression there was a car called the Brewster, which was a Ford with a custom grill and front fenders. So the rich could motor on the down low.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brewst...er_automobiles

During the Oils Wars of the 1970s people put Rolls Royce[-like] grilles on VW Beetles.

[image redacted to save your eyes]

So things could get a little crazy.

[Xist]

I am disappointed that politician did not know that you cannot receive unemployment after quitting, but politicians disappoint me every day.

My sister says that you cannot receive it after being fired for cause, so you cannot tell your boss what you think of them, and then collect free money.

All that I could say to my boss is "Why didn't you get me clients? Another agency is getting cilents in my area!"

[That agency is run by a woman with a legal history of not paying on-time. She has been sued for back pay. She also finds some reason to criticize me each and every time that she sees me. I have many faults, but nothing that she says is valid]

I wouldn't want to leave on poor terms because I would want to return once unemployment runs out.

However, would I get all of my clients back, or would the other S.L.P.A. get them?

So, short-term gain for me, but long-term gain for a woman with the personality and kindness of my sister.

I will pass!

The thing is, now that we can [and should] do teletherapy, we can have clients all over the state, but my boss said that this is only temporary, we will quickly return to home visits.

No we won't!

I hate to think of some city folk picking up clients in my area. Since she will not be driving all over, that other S.L.P.A. can pick up more clients.

What I like is that they authorized tele evaluations. I have had a client waiting for an evaluation for over three months!

The policy is that if you do not live in the Phoenix area, they will send out the traveling evaluator when you need five evaluations, but I have only had the one.

For over three months.

As soon as they said that the Governor authorized tele evaluations I asked if my pending client would finally get evaluated.

"Uh... I will ask So-and-so."

then

"Uh... I will ask your supervisor if she wants to."

Come on! I am trying to make a living here!

Right now there is only one agency advertising in the Phoenix area with comparable pay. They actually advertise $1 an hour more for a W-2 employee than my agency pays 1099 contractors.

The thing is, I know her, and I don't like her.

She reached out to me when I was new and all that she did was criticize my then employer, who I did like and respect, I just wish that she got me more clients.

I did not feel that the other woman was being fair or professional and it turned out that she was trying to mislead me.

Maybe she could get me a good caseload out here, but that still does not seem like an atmosphere that I want.