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Old 06-22-2018, 05:23 PM   #2131 (permalink)
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chaos/lives/.....................

Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Socio-economic chaos from the depletion of energy availability that reducing carbon fuel consumption, particularly liquid fuel that we depend on for mining and food, will kill many times the number of people and much sooner than continued carbon emissions. Why do we think that all of these climate agreements of the last 20 years have failed? Because we are dependant on growth and energy consumption to maintain the function of the world economy and there is no ready energy replacement at anything even close to the current scale. It is not just a matter of choosing to switch energy production sources as Green advocates want to believe. We have built a social trap for ourselves with unprecedented human growth over the last 150 years since discovering fossil fuel and there is now no painless or free market way out. There will be some "speed bumps" coming.
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Population/ GDP/ Energy consumption is nearly 1:1:1. There has been a slight decoupling in the last few years as GDP shifts a bit toward services, but if energy goes down, so must the others. And so far there are very few 1%er's that are willing to kneel to let the rest of the world rise to a sustainable future.
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*Market segments which can get by without fossil fuels will be the first to go off it.Alternatives will fill the void.
*Food deaths recently appear to be a function of international law which protects the sale of light weapons which can find their way into the hands of those who would physically deny peoples access to available food.There appears to be enough food around.
*I just got Thomas Malthus' book on population.I haven't cracked it open yet so I'm not gonna go there yet.
*If we're not driving,and boating,and shipping,and RV'ing,and cycling,and canoeing,and skiing,and shopping,NASCAR'ing,and Indycar'ing,and SCCA'ing,and golfing,and......................................o n petroleum,we should have some available for heavy machinery and agriculture while we contemplate those technologies.
* I'm not sure any of the climate initiatives ever actually did anything.The US portion has been sabotaged internally since day one.
*Same reason we've never had a national energy policy except 'send in the troops.'
*No one will argue about the amazing energy density of liquid fuel and how we've floated to supremacy on a tide of petroleum.
*We've floated on it to global climate change as well.
*I could care less what 'green advocates' believe.
*I do care very much what the scientific community says.
*At least one economist has essentially said that, when it comes to the health of the planet,to hell with economics.
*Economists are at variance with respect to GNP and hydrocarbons.They can be de-linked according to some.
*The USA will advocate for market-based solutions,other governments are willing to go to command and control.There is a point where nationalization is on the table,corporate charters are at the pleasure of We the People,FCC broadcast licenses ditto,.............................
*The USA has already been there,done that.
*I don't have any first order reality experience with a 1%'er.(I know a lot of high people in places) I've known some millionaires.They seemed like reasonable people.
*The only US Congressman I ever met was Graham Purcell (D-Texas).He and my dad grew up together in Archer City,Texas.We visited him two years after he left the Congress and I got many insights into the workings of federal government.He left a very favorable impression on me.
* I have to agree with you about the 'speed bumps.'There will winners and losers.I like to believe that we,as a nation,will do everything in our power to make things as painless as possible in a transition to a new energy paradigm.
*Next weekend I'll be able to hear some of the You-Tube presentations recommended.I look forward to that.

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Old 06-22-2018, 06:26 PM   #2132 (permalink)
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There has usually always been enough food around.
Usually what happens is government denys food to people to control them. The bad actors have all or most of the weapons.
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Old 06-22-2018, 06:37 PM   #2133 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
There has usually always been enough food around.
Usually what happens is government denys food to people to control them. The bad actors have all or most of the weapons.

Holodomor...


>
 
Old 06-22-2018, 09:36 PM   #2134 (permalink)
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Three data points:

eurekalert:Buildings as power stations -- data shows they work: They generate more energy than they consume

Quote:
The Active Office is a first, but it isn't a one-off. It is quick to build using existing supply chains, and uses only materials that are already available. This is tomorrow's office, but it can be built today

electrek.co:Mercedes-Benz turns coal power plant into energy storage system with electric car batteries
Quote:
Their latest project was unveiled today and it consists of a 8.96 MW/9.8 MWh project using a total of 1,920 battery modules installed in Elverlingsen on the site of the former coal-fired power station that was built in 1912 and recently shut down – pictured above.

....

The battery modules would have normally found their ways into about 600 third generation electric smarts.

axios.com:Three big trends in micro electricity grids
Quote:
  1. Who's buying
  2. California as model
  3. Testing Viability

Not to mention the growing list of political subsets setting their own renewables goals: State of California, City of London, various corps, etc.
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Old 06-23-2018, 08:40 AM   #2135 (permalink)
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The 4th volcano just blew.
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Old 06-23-2018, 10:26 AM   #2136 (permalink)
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New Martenson article.
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https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114131/end-growth
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We've lost half the world’s topsoil in the past 150 years
There are 10 or maybe 12 calories of fossil fuels silently embedded in each food calorie we ingest
Fossil fuel supply will peak and slowly decline beginning around 2030
At the current pace, it will take 400 years to transform the energy system upon which we current depend
World population will continue to climb until 2100 reaching 11.2 billion
In the years immediately following the peak in fossil fuel energ,y the world will have to replace nearly 100% of all the concrete structures ever poured or built due to spalling and crumbling induced by the use of steel reinforcing rods
Pensions and entitlements are a simple math disaster that’s already beginning to unfold.
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https://www.worldwildlife.org/threat...nd-degradation
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The True Cost of Food | The Art of Eating Magazine
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The Energy Transition » Peak Oil Barrel
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https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...energy-system/
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https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ld-population/
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https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...bling-our-eyes
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...pen-2017-04-03
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Old 06-23-2018, 02:54 PM   #2137 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4
The 4th volcano just blew.
Shimo? Suspicious 0bseervers this morning:
Quote:
arrives and is still causing increased
01:05
seismic watch the top lithospheric note
01:08
of the last day hit Japan with Shimo and
01:10
another eruption it has had a number of
01:13
eruptions this year but has not been
01:14
active since early April it is notable
01:17
that of all the volcano eruptions this
01:19
year none have hit the stratosphere
Quote:
In the years immediately following the peak in fossil fuel energ,y the world will have to replace nearly 100% of all the concrete structures ever poured or built due to spalling and crumbling induced by the use of steel reinforcing rods
Well, next time let's use Basalt reinforcement then.

Meanwhile cathodic protection patents are controlled by the concrete guys. Are they motivated to conserve the existing infrastructure?
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Old 06-23-2018, 07:27 PM   #2138 (permalink)
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Installing a wind turbine:
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https://youtu.be/84BeVq2Jm88
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Here’s a brief summary for those of you too busy to watch this construction process right now: Diesel, diesel, diesel, reinforced concrete, diesel, petroleum, diesel. That is, installing a wind tower like this requires a huge amount of fossil fuels to accomplish.
 
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Old 06-23-2018, 07:59 PM   #2139 (permalink)
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Here is another technique where the tower is made from concrete (and even more diesel fuel) instead of steel.
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https://youtu.be/qXN1UAv1anQ
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Old 06-24-2018, 06:08 AM   #2140 (permalink)
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So what? Those tools use diesel now because that's what is readily available now. Once these need replacing they may well get replaced by cleaner alternatives.

As it stands some power is renewable and most isn't. How that power is distributed is not really relevant, as long as it does not get in the way of things.

Those windmills are going to produce way more energy than it took to build them.

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