The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[sendler]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

I hope you are wrong but I agree.
I'm already starting or trying to grow my own food and fuel.

Disruptions will probably start with oscillations. And many nations are already starting to fail. Personal resiliency in the beginning will be key. Learn, think. talk. Focus. The free market is throwing our (their) future away. Sloughing ever forward toward the quickest return on superfluous stuff. That our brains are wired to crave at a primal level. The wisest moves we can make now won't have big pay offs. Worldwide grassroots awareness of resource depletion in the deep timeframe of 30 years is the first key. Along with knowing our brains. In this age, the prehistoric reward centers of our primitive brain areas have been hijacked by modern supernormal stimuli. And and an ever increasing hedonic ratchet. Learn your brain. Try to step off and reset. Be happier with less. What do you really need to be happy?

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

The plant has been warming for the last 14,000 years, I would say that's old news.
My position is I wish man made global warming were as true as the believers say it is.
I was told that "snowy winters would soon be a thing of the past" I was like cool sign me up.

So why the lack of death spiral alarmism?
Why aren't we hearing about all the ice that melted in the artic this summer?

You got about 2 more years left before the rest of the reasonable people abandon the idea.

Not at the rate it is warming now - and not for the reason it is warming now.

Climate change is the biggest challenge that humans have ever faced. It is ironic that we are doing it to ourselves.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

Climate change is the biggest challenge that humans have ever faced.

I believe resource depletion, especially liquid fuel, will hurt us much harder and sooner than climate change. 3-5 more good years before the next great recession due to the immense debt bubble bursting. 20-30 more years of oscillating struggle as liquid fuel prices edge higher and higher out of sight. Until the great simplification irreversibly sets in. Undoubtedly unprepared. No one wants to hear my story and get ready. Too dissonant. Too much momentum in business as usual.

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I predict a softer landing than Sendler anticipates. Fuel doesn't run out; it merely gets more expensive to produce. That would cause a taper off from fuel, not a swan dive off a cliff.

Urban hydroponic farming, glass tile solar roofs, a tunnel at the Bering Strait and domes over major cities.

Along with knowing our brains. In this age, the prehistoric reward centers of our primitive brain areas have been hijacked by modern supernormal stimuli. And and an ever increasing hedonic ratchet. Learn your brain.

That's the scary part. The public demand for dopamine is insatiable.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

I predict a softer landing than Sendler anticipates. Fuel doesn't run out; it merely gets more expensive to produce. That would cause a taper off from fuel, not a swan dive off a cliff.

How do you taper off from 93 million barrels/ day of oil? Mostly liquid fuel. $100 Trillion currently in built out ice powered machinery needs to be replaced. Most farm and mining equipment will have to be corded since battery raw materials are not abundant enough to store what we are now using from liquid fuel. And all supplied with electricity instead of countless TWh worth of oil. So massive buildouts of wind and solar since nobody want nuclear. Full electrified rail needs to replace highway trucking for the same reason. When fuel gets more expensive, the big correction comes not from a complete lack of fuel, just from the growth based economy crashing due to being based on $50/ barrel oil and now having to pay $150.
.
If we would have started in 1972 we could have had time to gracefully taper off and electrify the transition. The current $275 Trillion in world debt has left us nothing more to work with. One by one countries are starting to default already. All of our fossil slaves are asking for a raise in ER/EI.
.
We are still building luxuries. This effort all needs to be immediately focused on 100 year solar panels and cross continent transmission lines. And a whole new way of distributing wealth needs to be found.
.
An add campaign could bring a grassroots awareness of the debt bubble and resource depletion to the masses in a very short time. I am doing the most that I can with my limited reach. I would really like to see us pull it off. But most people are not ready to hear this story.
.
It is no one's fault. It is just unfortunately something we had to live through the hard way. It's who we are.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Urban hydroponic farming, glass tile solar roofs, a tunnel at the Bering Strait and domes over major cities.

Why a domed city? They already have a problem with urban heat island effect. Turning them into a greenhouse would certainly fry them. Maybe Anchorage could stand to benefit from a dome.

[freebeard]

Thanks for asking.

Domes don't work that way. Box shaped rooms have stratified air, domes encourage a natural air circulation that means there's no temperature difference between the apex and the floor. This is a 5 minutes excerpt of a 40 minute video on putting a dome over downtown Houston. Go to the two minute mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9k9yZhZXJk

I recommend the whole thing. It shows the Eden Project (the closest thing there is so far) and how it maintains differing climates in Cornwall, UK.
________

How do you taper off from 93 million barrels/ day of oil?
....
If we would have started in 1972 we could have had time to gracefully taper off and electrify the transition.

At this point cold turkey*. You're right that if consumerism hadn't eaten our future, we'd be in a better position.

*(I'd start with [spectator] sports, pets and Hollywood)

edit:
Add these to the list:

https://www.metabolic.nl/wp-content/...msReport-1.pdf
New Strategies For Smart Integrated Decentralised Energy Systems

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/09/...argest-sector/
US triples energy storage installations, residential grows 10X to become largest sector

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=9YZ4laCiomU
Intro to Clearvue Technology October 2017

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

Not at the rate it is warming now - and not for the reason it is warming now.

Climate change is the biggest challenge that humans have ever faced. It is ironic that we are doing it to ourselves.

At the end of the last ice age the peak of the big ice melt likely caused the sea to rise level by feet per century. You got that right, it's nothing like the rate we see now. Not even close.

The biggest challenge faced by man was not going extinct during the last ice age.

[niky]

Originally Posted by sendler

oscillations

One could argue that with the periodic economic crisises... errh... crises... errh... crashes we've had over the past few decades, that we're already there.

Without even getting close to using up the crude and coal available to use.

[sendler]

We are caught in a growth based economic system but are already bumping up against the limits to growth on a finite planet. We (they) will need a whole new way.