The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[sendler]

The USA is not the only country in the world. What about the rest of the weaker countries? Some of which are already defaulting and we haven't even come under RO/ RI energy stress yet. People by the 10's of millions are already walking North and floating across seas in rubber rafts.
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We need a whole new way to start immediately. The sooner we pull the levers, the better they work.
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Spread the word. Business as usual is leading the world to an economic cliff. Be a lobbyist for awareness of R101.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by Xist

Red Point, did you watch the video that Sendler linked? Has anyone else? I have not seen any comment about it. I think that it is absolutely relevant to this conversation. Here it is again:

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It is a good, optimistic pep talk. But he has, like so many others, failed to grasp the scale of our total primary energy consumption and what it would take to replace it. 17 TeraWatts. Without major socio-economic change, we will come up short.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

As far as I know, there aren't scientific predictions of meters per century. Mostly I read about a foot per century.

We need to look at the IPCC 'caveats' which talk about higher levels.
An ice sheet-instability model,identified in 1978,which predicted abrupt sea-level rise up to 16-feet in around 50-years has been verified and is in effect as of 2015,according to NASA JPL.
It has to do with warm deep ocean upwellings in Antarctica,melting the submerged ice sheets/glaciers from below.The ice can tolerate only a 0-degrre C average temp..They're seeing up to 10-degree C.
As the glacier grounding line recedes inland,the cantilevered glacier breaks off under gravitational stress,calving tetris bergs, which increase sea-
level,while exposing more ice to the warm water,in a runaway feedback loop,until the whole thing disintegrates.Ice walls of 300-feet height 'implode'.
The NASA gravity anomally... GRACE satellites are registering the loss.Three major glaciers are impacted,including the Thwaites Glacier,which is considered by glaciologists to be a canary in the coal mine as to sea-level rise.
James Hansen has said,that the last time Earth had 405-ppmv carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,that the oceans were 20-30 feet higher.
As of 2015,only 24 people on Earth had ever seen the Thwaites Glacier.
And we're just talking about the W.Antarctic peninsula.
Antarctica is the size of the US and Mexico combined.If it were to all melt,we'd be looking at 200-feet of sea-level rise.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Yeah and the polar ice caps should have been meted by 2010.
False hope is better than no hope.

All I can recall,is that some thought the Arctic might be ice free in the summer only.The US Navy mentioned ice free by this summer.
If all the Arctic ice goes it will mean very little as to sea-level.
Greenland is good for 22-feet of rise.
Antarctica,200-feet.
The problem with the Arctic is the methane release from shallow seas and permafrost.Especially Siberia.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Yeah the ipcc craziest number was I believe was 1m per century and they backed off that claim around 10 years ago.
Now they are saying something to the tune of 8 inches per century I believe.
But some people think their alarmist predictions are better than the ipcc predictions.

Caveats!

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Go on YouTube and search "al gore" and you can watch him for hours talk about how the polar ice caps are going to melt by 2010 and flood the world.

So the computer model source data is publicly available?
The antartic has not been gaining ice?
Which of the computer models have been correct?
If all these computer models were correct then why did the ipcc say that all the models were failing because they were over estimating the effect CO2 was having by double what it was.
Where is the death spiral we were promised?
Why isn't the plant warming faster?
That sure is a lot of blind faith for something that isn't a religion.

Al Gore is not a scientist, and I doubt he ever predicted that date.

Yes.

All models are imperfect, and over time, they get better; especially as more data comes in.

When / where did the IPCC say this?

The Arctic ice is dropping quickly, and it is spiraling down:



The planet IS warming faster than we thought it would earlier on.

The Antarctic was growing - a record high area in 2014 - and now it is at a record LOW.

Science is based on evidence, and if you don't "believe" in science, doesn't make it wrong. Climate science is correct, and your doubts don't change anything.

Do you "believe" in plate tectonics? Why? They are part of the climate models.

Do you "believe" in the structure of the atom? Why? Chemistry is part of the climate models.

Do you "believe" in the structure of the solar system? Why? The solar system is part of climate models.

Do you "believe" that the sun is producing heat from nuclear fusion? Why? The sun is part of climate models.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by sendler

.4 TO .8 meters from your link to the NASA study. It will be the lower since the world economy will stagnate and begin to contract some time before 2050 reducing by default the amount of carbon we can dig up.
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https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understand...al-projections

Just as with the ozone hole,the warming is predicted to just motor on,as all we may be doing is to reduce what we're adding,without any attempt to stop emissions,or remove any of it.Carbon dioxide is a very long-lived gas.

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

I seem to remember al gore saying "the artic could be ice free in 5 years" in his retarded movie that came out in 2006.

He said it, it didn't happen.

If he said that, then the only thing that he got wrong was the date. The Arctic will be ice free in the summer, quite soon.

The fact that it is melting is the important part, and yet you fixate on the date. It IS melting, and it IS having effects. And it IS going to get worse.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by Xist

August 2018 was the highest August Arctic sea ice extent since 2014.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

It's important that we distinguish between 'extent' and 'volume' ,or 'mass' of the ice.We've lost the multi-year ice,leaving a thin patina of 'new' ice.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

You don't say.
I wonder why all the alarmists weren't going off over this.
I figured that they would at least be making excuses.
Well their's always the antartic......

The extent of paint on your car's is complete,however it's total volume can be contained in a one-quart spray gun cup.
The metric we need to pay attention with respect to ice is 'volume',or 'mass.'