The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

The only reason it's even possible to have wind power that only costs 1 cent more per kwh is because of all the fossil fuel and nuclear power that can make up for when the wind is lacking.

What if not very many people want a 54.5mpg car and they would rather just pay the guzzler penalty and get a truck or SUV?
Then the big 3, not just ford would go to only making trucks, SUVs and muscle cars.
I'm expecting gas prices to double by 2025 and triple by 2030. That's why I am already adopting electrics as primary vehicles.

I suspect that you're correct about the other sources.My electric COOP doesn't parse it out in detail.'Normal' electricity was 12-cents,and I'm given to undertstand that this 'price' would somehow reflect actual cost of production,mainteneance,plus wiggle money to expand the distribution infrastructure.
The 54.5 mpg of course would be the fleet average,reflecting a pool of vehicles with efficiencies ranging from say,119 MPGE for a Chevy Bolt,down to 15-MPG for a Cadillac Denali,and things in between.
One could still by the Denali or Raptor,or Ram,or whatever,but there'd be higher MPG or MPGE vehicles in the mix to drive the aggregate numbers up to 54.5.
EVs are credited at 135 mpg for CAFE calculation purposes.The more of them sold,the more full-size SUVs would be allowed.
If the Big-Three go to only full-size,they'll be excluded from the California and 13-other state markets.It's their call.Whatever the shareholders want.Those in those states will have to move elsewhere if they don't like it.
As to fuel prices,we've seen $4/gallon before,nationwide.California is paying that as I write.
If we all buy a Denali, Navigator,Sequoia,Expedition,Raptor,Tundra,Titan,L and Rover,G-Wagen,Shelby GT,etc.,there's no telling where the price will settle.Or if we get another Katrina,or pipeline leak.
If I can get the Spirit project behind me,I'll be looking at some entry level EV with very limited range.My roundtrips are only 16-miles.I think I can buy a 'real' EV cheaper than I can convert my Karmann Ghia.I've got few years to think about that.
I like you PV/LEAF setup.I'd like to do that too.

[freebeard]

I think I can buy a 'real' EV cheaper than I can convert my Karmann Ghia.I've got few years to think about that.

I've got a Lexus axle I'd donate.

I'm reading 'FORDLANDIA' right now.It's about Henry Ford's captured rubber plantation project in the Amazon of Brazil,which began in 1928.It began shortly before the Wall Street Crash and Great Depression began.

See if you agree with me that it was a mistake to transplant New England town planning into a tropical jungle.

Like most folks,I'm just along for the ride,and will be watching as things unfold.

All of my neighbors are all up in arms
About something they saw on TV
Seems some politician got busted for something
That won't make any difference to me
Now I'm sure it's all true and I'm tired of this too
But I can't pray for some guy to fall
I let all them people do what people do
I'm just happy to be here at all

I'm happy to be here to vote randomly
On who ought to take the next dive
I'm eager to see what the downfall will be
And all the hilarity on Saturday Night Live
Mostly it's all scandal TV these days
That's where the real money must fall
Down from the smog of some Hollywood haze
I'm just happy to be here at all

I'm happy to be here, happy to be
Happy

Happy to be here to see how it goes
When everything blows into space
I've been walking my tennis shoes right through my toes
Trying to keep up with the rest of the race
Mostly I stare out my window these days
Watching my dog chase her ball
I'll do my job here whatever it pays
I'm just happy to be here at all

Todd Snider —Happy To Be Here

I hope climate change turns out to be the biggest hoax ever perpetrated upon mankind,but when I study it,I can't come to any other conclusion than we've screwed the pooch.
The division I witness even here at EcoModder gives me little confidence that we'll ever be able to act before reaching critical tipping points,if we're not there already.
I see Dr,Seuss's Lorax playing out,where capitalists will be fighting over who gets to cut down the last Truffula Tree.

'Biggest hoax' is a pretty high bar. War... Religion...
________

Subversion of the hippys into Yuppies was where it all went off the tracks.
________

Dr. Seuss = cultural reference. See below.

And Sputnik was a primitive junk making "bip bip", and the rocket technology that put it on orbit was the real breakthrough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxi1CuRdst8

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I've got a Lexus axle I'd donate.
See if you agree with me that it was a mistake to transplant New England town planning into a tropical jungle.

All of my neighbors are all up in arms
About something they saw on TV
Seems some politician got busted for something
That won't make any difference to me
Now I'm sure it's all true and I'm tired of this too
But I can't pray for some guy to fall
I let all them people do what people do
I'm just happy to be here at all

I'm happy to be here to vote randomly
On who ought to take the next dive
I'm eager to see what the downfall will be
And all the hilarity on Saturday Night Live
Mostly it's all scandal TV these days
That's where the real money must fall
Down from the smog of some Hollywood haze
I'm just happy to be here at all

I'm happy to be here, happy to be
Happy

Happy to be here to see how it goes
When everything blows into space
I've been walking my tennis shoes right through my toes
Trying to keep up with the rest of the race
Mostly I stare out my window these days
Watching my dog chase her ball
I'll do my job here whatever it pays
I'm just happy to be here at all

Todd Snider —Happy To Be Here

'Biggest hoax' is a pretty high bar. War... Religion...
________

Subversion of the hippys into Yuppies was where it all went off the tracks.
________

Dr. Seuss = cultural reference. See below.

*Thanks freebeard! I'll be thinking on it while I try to get back to Ogden.
*Fordlandia appears to be complete folly,asserting some manufacturing philosophy onto the natural world as if it were a machine.
*Religion is such a delicate subject and so emotional,its not the sort of thing for a rational discourse.It's not reason-driven.If I look at Joel Olsteen though,I feel like I'm looking into the face of Lucifer.(he had a counterpart on HBO's The Sopranos).
*The Art of War has helped me understand War a bit.It was the foundation of Chinese statecraft.And since it's still studied at US military academies today,it continues to gain traction.Business is a form of warfare and China wove it into its culture, as an integral part of its power tapestry.
*Enjoyed the Todd Snider piece!
*My exposure to 'hippies' was the dress,loose sex,drugs,etc.,not necessarily some vision quest and doorway/search for an expanded truth.
*I keep looking for a copy of the Lorax,to make sure I remember it correctly.Joni Mitchell had a song with lyrics which resonated in the same frequency.'Short-sighted businessman,paving over brave little parts..........'

[All Darc]

Fordland it's almost a ghost city today, but there were some few people still living there, according a TV documentary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BgoMMBc8AQ

[freebeard]

The only word I caught was 'phantasmagorical'. What's going on at 11:02?

I was going to post about spending big money to save humanity, using a Extreme Engineering episode on the Bering Strait tunnel, but I found this one on putting a dome over Houston. It's a good introduction to the Eden Project, and Houston appears a smaller problem than Bucky's suggestion to put one over mid-town Manhattan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84RRBMcCuIw

*Thanks freebeard! I'll be thinking on it while I try to get back to Ogden.

I'll be selling everything as we get closer to my Arcimoto reservation number, but I can sell that last.

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

It's not. Have you noticed how quiet all the global warming alarmists have been lately?
They have good reason to be silent.
Within the next 2 years I expect it to completely collapse in on its self like a dieing star.
By 2030 it will be a complete joke, the few true believers left getting laughed at like flat earthers.

Petroleum isn't going anywhere ant time soon, it will get more expensive due to supply and demand.

It is hard to take this seriously - climate scientists are speaking about the increasingly serious challenges we are facing. Science deniers, such as yourself, are already recognized as flat earthers.

Except we are not laughing at you - that would be rude.

[oil pan 4]

The plant has been warming for the last 14,000 years, I would say that's old news.
My position is I wish man made global warming were as true as the believers say it is.
I was told that "snowy winters would soon be a thing of the past" I was like cool sign me up.

So why the lack of death spiral alarmism?
Why aren't we hearing about all the ice that melted in the artic this summer?

You got about 2 more years left before the rest of the reasonable people abandon the idea.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

I'm expecting gas prices to double by 2025 and triple by 2030. That's why I am already adopting electrics as primary vehicles.

And food prices will triple. The price of every good will increase as to the price of energy. Liquid fuel intensive endeavors such as farming, trucking, mining, road construction and plowing will see price increases that track oil price. Triple. This is something that green advocates seem unable to understand. Leaving fossil fuels in the ground is not a matter of choice. 7.5 soon to be 9 Billion people worth of civilization is built on it's continued use. There is no replacement at this scale. 17 TeraWatts continuous average. Fossil fuel, particularly affordable oil, will leave us long before we are ready to leave it. And cause a big stair step down. The sooner we start to focus and take some steps down, the softer the landing.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by sendler

And food prices will triple. The price of every good will increase as to the price of energy. Liquid fuel intensive endeavors such as farming, trucking, mining, road construction and plowing will see price increases that track oil price. Triple. This is something that green advocates seem unable to understand. Leaving fossil fuels in the ground is not a matter of choice. 7.5 soon to be 9 Billion people worth of civilization is built on it's continued use. There is no replacement at this scale. 17 TeraWatts continuous average. Fossil fuel, particularly affordable oil, will leave us long before we are ready to leave it. And cause a big stair step down. The sooner we start to focus and take some steps down, the softer the landing.

I hope you are wrong but I agree.
I'm already starting or trying to grow my own food and fuel.

[redpoint5]

I predict a softer landing than Sendler anticipates. Fuel doesn't run out; it merely gets more expensive to produce. That would cause a taper off from fuel, not a swan dive off a cliff.

Perhaps most goods and transportation will moderately increase in price in the mid-term (certainly not triple), but long term we'll have solutions to energy demand in place, and goods and transportation will hit all-time lows in cost.