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Old 07-31-2019, 12:31 PM   #6341 (permalink)
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excess

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The problem is that excess is what drives innovation and exploration. If we simplify, we don't go to Mars. Going to Mars probably isn't immediately important or clearly beneficial to humanity, and I'm only using Mars as a representation of the many things we won't discover (or won't discover as quickly) if excess isn't leveraged. We've solved so many problems with technology precisely because we aren't spending 90% of our time farming. The larger and more productive our farming operations, the more time we get to spend being creative.
Sun Tzu,in the Art of War,speaks of a country developing a food surplus,which leads to the intentional development of a middle-class,which can invent and innovate advanced weapon systems with which to maintain state hegemony.
When the global population was 100,000,000,it wasn't a problem.In a consumer-capitalist economy working up to a population of 10-billion it's a different calculus.
Our biggest problems have been associated with access to cheap,plentiful,fossil-fuels.
We live on Earth.It's the planet NASA needs to consider terra-forming.When we have that under control,only then would we have the luxury of dinking around with lunar and Martian colonies.
Some of the smartest people come from s--t-hole nations that may go under water.You might consider protecting a potentially valuable asset.

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Old 07-31-2019, 12:36 PM   #6342 (permalink)
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We're going to die of heart disease or cancer, just like everyone else. Sure, some people will be tragically taken by weather-related events, but they will still pale in comparison to heart disease and cancer.

It wouldn't be crazy to hear some politician talking incessantly about heart disease and cancer, yet we would probably think them to be crazy.

We don't like to talk about things actually likely to happen to us, because that would require confronting our real vulnerabilities.

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The earth is in a constant state of change.
For the planet to not be warming or cooling would be unnatural.
The faster the rate of change, the more disruptive it is to the inhabitants. Adaptation is a process that takes time, and when the time frame is accelerated, it puts more pressure on creatures to make the requisite changes.

The problem isn't that the climate changes, it's that it changes quickly relative to geologic time frames.

Still, it doesn't seem that humanity will suffer so much given that these "rapid" changes still take several human generations to manifest problems. As I said, nobody is going to wake up tomorrow with seas being a foot higher.

Seas have risen about a foot over the last 100 years, and people that old don't report how terrible that transition was, or how climate change was the most difficult thing they had to contend with. In the next 100 years seas are predicted to rise about a foot too. Any predictions on what people will be recounting as the most difficult things they have lived through?
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:39 PM   #6343 (permalink)
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subsidies

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I realize there are external circumstances which threaten to simplify, and I'm quite for efficiency which is why I'm on this forum. I'm simply pointing out that our increasing ability to do more with less (efficiency) is directly related to consumerism.

Though I lean Libertarian, I'm not a Libertarian, and I accept that artificially influencing an otherwise free market is sometimes necessary. I'm open to the idea of slowly and progressively increasing the federal tax on fossil fuels, for instance.

What I'm not ok with is subsidizing particular industries (EV incentives) or banning plastic grocery bags at the supermarket. Those ideas are retarded (not of developed quality).

... and I've always wondered why humanity hasn't figured out how to live on the sea in larger numbers. If it covers most of the surface of Earth, then it seems we should be utilizing more of it.
So let's begin with abolishing the oil depletion allowance,and it's equivalent with coal and natural gas industries.Adam Smith never advocated for government give-aways to joint-stock corporations.Let's have a real free market.Right?
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:50 PM   #6344 (permalink)
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predictions

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I Google searched for a list of global warming predictions that came true and the only results that came back are ones that were wrong.
Garbage in, garbage out.
I'm nearly through a new book (to me) which has this data.Perhaps I'll have something to share in a week.
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Old 07-31-2019, 12:57 PM   #6345 (permalink)
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constant change

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Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
The earth is in a constant state of change.
For the planet to not be warming or cooling would be unnatural.
Very true! It's what's happening,which falls outside natural variability (which scientists have a very good handle on) that is of concern.And what is happening outside of natural variability is a consequence of fossil-fuel combustion,plus the other anthropogenic forcings mankind has contributed.
It's not the Sun.It's not clouds.It's not cosmic-'ray' secondary particles.
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Old 07-31-2019, 01:01 PM   #6346 (permalink)
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All these claims of global warming predictions that came true, but no example.
Giess devout believers don't require proof.
This is where it starts to look more like religion, acult than science.

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Very true! It's what's happening,which falls outside natural variability (which scientists have a very good handle on) that is of concern.And what is happening outside of natural variability is a consequence of fossil-fuel combustion,plus the other anthropogenic forcings mankind has contributed.
It's not the Sun.It's not clouds.It's not cosmic-'ray' secondary particles.
Prove it.
The way you say it almost sounds like there were data gathering instruments running thousands of years ago and so a direct compairson can be made.
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Old 07-31-2019, 01:08 PM   #6347 (permalink)
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prove it

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Prove it.
All the data,names,quotes,locations,affiliations,and dates are in this book.I'll try and have a condensation of it in a week.Appreciate your patience.
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Old 07-31-2019, 03:19 PM   #6348 (permalink)
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data gathering

We have millions of years of climate data via proxy data.Tree ring dendrochronolgy,geologic stratification,stalagtites,corals,ice -cores,sediment- cores,foraminifera,isotopic assays of carbon-14,berylium-10,oxygen-18,etc.,have allowed researchers to reconstruct the past.Air bubbles trapped in the ice sequester carbon dioxide,methane,etc.,which allow paleo-atmospheric reconstructions.Sea-levels can be ascertained.Isotopes tell us about cocmic particle activity,hence solar wind,hence solar minimum-maximums/galactic/intersteller cosmic particle bombardment.We can tell if carbon came from oil,natural gas,forest fires,peat bogs,or coal.We can witness volcanic activity,the parasol effect,acid rain.Temperatures can be derived from greenhouse gases trapped in the ice.
There are hundreds of years of ships logs which contain soundings (mark twain),temperatures at depth,surface water temperatures.We have declassified,formerly,top-secret ship log data from US,British,and Soviet naval vessels/submarines, from the Cold War era.Balloon data since before rockets.Rocket-derived data.
In 1978 we began satellite remote-sensing.We have limited terrestrial weather observations from countries and colonial holdings.Thermometers and barometers have been around a long time.We've had solar observations continuously since 1611.
Volcanic eruptions are written in the ice.
We know when changes to ice bridges, glacier-melt inland seas,and major tectonic /geographic features happened.The three Milankovich Earth orbital perturbations are accounted for,to an accuracy of fractions of an arc-second.Magnetospheric polar reversals are recorded in the rocks.Atmospheric photochemistry is well understood.Computers get faster.Numerical models get more sophisticated,with ever higher resolution,and results arrive sooner.
We know enough to model the climate to above a 90% accuracy,going backwards and forwards.
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Old 07-31-2019, 05:21 PM   #6349 (permalink)
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We know for a fact that solar irradiance-forcing is only 1/10th that of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing.
This is the part I don't get. Irradiance-forcing is different to simple irradiance how?


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Old 07-31-2019, 05:22 PM   #6350 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
If people used common sense there wouldn't be a disaster or it would be greatly minimized.
I don't understand how people can live in a triple threat or more disaster area can be so oblivious and just hope it will never happen to them.
That's simple - they just deny the risk.

Like man- made climate change. Don't like that? Deny.

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