The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[NeilBlanchard]

Click on your state, and that shows the proposed plan of energy sources, etc.

[basjoos]

If the climate is getting warmer, how come we can't grow oranges as far north as they could in the late 1800's? In Mark Twain's ' Life on the Mississippi', published in the 1880's, he describes Natchez as the furtherest north place along the Mississippi where they can grow oranges outside without protection and that from that point on south orange trees were commonly seen growing. Today New Orleans is the northernmost location where you can grow oranges outside without protection and oranges are commonly grown south of the city on the delta.

Also in 'The Escape of General Breckinridge', a journal documenting the escape of Confederate secretary of war General John Breckinridge and his military staff from union forces at the end of the Civil War by travelling the length of Florida to Cuba, they describe collecting coconuts from abandoned homesteads on Merritt island, a location too far north and too cold to grow coconuts today. You have to go south to Jupiter Inlet to find coconuts growing today. This is a fascinating read if you are familiar with those parts of Florida today, as they go into great detail describing the land they are passing through and includes details such as the techniques they used to cope with the mosquitoes and biting flies that tormented them in the days before DEET.

They might be able to diddle with temperature databases to try to prove warming or the lack thereof, but they can't change the references in classic literature describing locations where frost sensitive crops were being grown at the time it was written.

[Fat Charlie]

Killer bees are spreading north. Ticks are spreading north.

Even fish and chips are being replaced by calamari:
Here's why fish and chips could soon be replaced with squid and chips

Nice things like orange trees aren't going to spread as fast, though.

[darcane]

Originally Posted by sendler

The Topaz solar farm is doing 1301 GWh per year on 25km^2 of land and cost $2.4B.
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm
.
If it really were to try to replace anything it would need storage since it operates at 24.4% of rated capacity. 6Gwh of batteries doesn't really get you through the night occasionally. $200/kWh.$1.5B. And the batteries will last how long? And can't cover a single cloudy day without a gas plant or something else.
.
A single Gen3+ Westinghouse AP1000 Reactor for $7B will make this much power in 50 days on 1km of land.
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AP1000 Pressurized Water Reactor | Westinghouse Nuclear
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Day, night, rain, shine. 0 carbon. And there are better designs just waiting to be built if we let them. The World needs 30 TeraWatts all electric by 2200 when the oil runs out.

If you are doing this sort of calculation, it's important to consider lifespan too. What's the lifespan on that AP1000? Many Nuclear plants last 50-70 years

Wind turbines average lifespan is only about 20-25years. Solar panels can last 30 years or more, but their efficiency gradually degrades over time and it is often economically prudent to replace them before then.

[oil pan 4]

Wind turbines will continue to be rebuilt as long as it's economical.
The power collection grid around the wind turbine farm will still be like new after only 20 years.
The wind turbine foundation and monopole are not going to wear out.

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by sendler

Don't the actual numbers coming in from Solar Star and Topaz cause you to pause?

I like the numbers (price/sq ft) from Tesla/Solar City. Opening their New York plant will remove constraints on the supply.

[darcane]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Wind turbines will continue to be rebuilt as long as it's economical.

Right.

That usually averages about 20-25 years.

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

The power collection grid around the wind turbine farm will still be like new after only 20 years.
The wind turbine foundation and monopole are not going to wear out.

Yes. But...

If you have a wind farm full of 20 year-old, 750kW, 50m towers how do you plan to keep them running?

Parts for old turbines are hard to find and expensive because the manufacturer has moved on to larger turbines.
You can do a partial repower and replace the nacelle... but you can't put one on that is larger because the blades will hit the ground and the tower isn't designed to handle the load.
Or you can do a full repower and decommission the entire wind turbine and put a new one in it's place (actually, usually replacing several small turbines with one large one as they need more space). This is what is usually done.

And, since that grid was based on 750kW turbines, your new 3.0+MW turbines will likely overpower your grid, so you may need to upgrade that too.

Full disclosure: My company supplies components to wind turbine manufacturers.

[rmay635703]

Originally Posted by basjoos

If the climate is getting warmer, how come we can't grow oranges as far north as they could in the late 1800's? In Mark Twain's ' Life on the Mississippi', published in the 1880's, he describes Natchez as the furtherest north place along the Mississippi where they can grow oranges outside without protection and that from that point on south orange trees were commonly seen growing

They might be able to diddle with temperature databases to try to prove warming or the lack thereof, but they can't change the references in classic literature describing locations where frost sensitive crops were being grown at the time it was written.

Nothing to do with temperature,

Americans generally no longer consume "fridgid weather" oranges, the coldest weather a sweet orange can tolerate is 5 F but it's full of seeds, (one common variety is Changa after winterizing) tarter more bitter varieties can tolerate even colder, historically people would eat these varieties but now big, seedless sweet and easy to peel are expected.

Those types of oranges aren't cold ready.

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by darcane

Right.

That usually averages about 20-25 years.



Yes. But...

If you have a wind farm full of 20 year-old, 750kW, 50m towers how do you plan to keep them running?

Parts for old turbines are hard to find and expensive because the manufacturer has moved on to larger turbines.
You can do a partial repower and replace the nacelle... but you can't put one on that is larger because the blades will hit the ground and the tower isn't designed to handle the load.
Or you can do a full repower and decommission the entire wind turbine and put a new one in it's place (actually, usually replacing several small turbines with one large one as they need more space). This is what is usually done.

And, since that grid was based on 750kW turbines, your new 3.0+MW turbines will likely overpower your grid, so you may need to upgrade that too.

Full disclosure: My company supplies components to wind turbine manufacturers.

You don't buy obsolete parts. From what I gather the plan is to strip all the outdated warn out parts and rebuild pretty much from the top of the pole or nacelle deck up.
New 1 and 2 Mw parts could be available as long as the demand is there.
Nothing built around here is smaller than 1Mw.
The Fiesta ones to be rebuilt this way will be a few hundred mitsu 1.5Mw about an hour north of me.

[NeilBlanchard]

Planting zones have moved north - like 600-800 miles. Spring time temps are earlier, and Arctic - and now Antarctic ice is shrinking fast. But different soils and pollinators don't necessarily make it possible for things like oranges to grow well in other places. New diseases are happening, and a destabilized Jet Stream is making things very topsy turvy.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Ice volume in particular is much smaller than it was 30-40 years ago. Melting Arctic ice is affecting the Jet Stream, weakening it, and this is one of the reasons why we are getting weird weather patterns.

Tundra (which we called permafrost) is melting, and is releasing methane, sometimes violently. Sea level rise is accelerating.

Insurance companies and the military planners, also are taking climate change into account.

We are seeing a massive number of species collapse and / or go extinct. Ticks and moths and pine bark beetles (and other pests) are living through the winter. Moose are dying of massive tick infestations. Zika and West Nile viruses, and other diseases are spreading beyond their old ranges.