Cosmic Catastrophe

[oil pan 4]

It doesn't count because it doesn't fit aeroheads ridiculous criteria.
I guess weather prediction doesn't work either because the weather man can't tell us where it's going to rain down to the square nautical mile, what time it's going to start raining, how much rain we are going to get and when it will stop.

[freebeard]

....it doesn't fit aeroheads ridiculous criteria.

He's giving it everything he's got.

I'm envious, he lives in a state with Constitutional carry and suppressors.

[Piotrsko]

A Derringer using short load .22 makes a slight cough but is still fatal @ 1 meter. Why do you covet concealed carry?

[freebeard]

I used envy as a figure of speech. I hear it's a sin.

It's actually about the governors. Oregon hasn't had a good one since Tom McCall.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

If you get too specific, then you can be sued jailed if you fail to predict one. At least under Italian law.


That's why it says Informational Only, Not for Official Action

* There's your caveat.
* As to S-O, what would be the point of predicting without specifics? That WOULD be harm. Enough lead-time, for an orderly evacuation, and limited to only the affected area, would be the target.
* Woe to all who would entertain the notion of punishing anyone attempting a public good.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

It doesn't count because it doesn't fit aeroheads ridiculous criteria.
I guess weather prediction doesn't work either because the weather man can't tell us where it's going to rain down to the square nautical mile, what time it's going to start raining, how much rain we are going to get and when it will stop.

1) Actually, they can. At least where I live. The service is available as a phone app.
And with higher resolution than one nautical mile.
2) What will save your life though, is paying attention to official warnings, and knowing the ramifications of surrounding dynamics, which collectively, will decide life or death.( living in a basement during a historic rain event, being swept away in your car during a historic rain event, living below a hillside ( landslide area ) steeper than the natural angle of repose, in a saturating historic rain event, having potential home tree-strikes from saturated soil/ high wind events, falling high-voltage power lines during historic weather events.......)

[aerohead]

This is another 'effect' which has been investigated, with respect to earthquakes, and found lacking.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triboe...am_peanuts.jpg

[freebeard]

* As to S-O, what would be the point of predicting without specifics? That WOULD be harm.

Your local weather reporting is dealing in probablilities, not inevitabilities. Successful prediction proves the model.

The two week forecast here just pushed rain out to the 12th, from the 7th of this month.

[aerohead]

Here's another link to S-O's 'evidence.'
Caveats to pay attention to:
* 'once a strong correlation has been assessed' ( it hasn't )
* 'next step is to verify if a physical mechanism exists which could explain such a result' ( a mechanism has not been verified )
* ' our observed correlation implies' ( is not proven )
* ' it sometimes exists ' ( it must be proven to coincide with large earthquakes )
* 'Earth's underground voltage increases when it exists' ( bookeeping )
* ' increased voltage passing through a fault ' ( requires coincidental evidence )
* ' increased potential initiates additional piezoelectric strain/stress along fault boundary' ( must prove that random, heterogeneous assemblage of quartz grains do not simply cancel out each other's strain, in the absence of a focused, unidirectional force vector )
* ' piezoelectric 'swelling' triggers rupture' ( might it not increase the clamping strength of the asperity and actually 'strengthen' the fault's lock? )
* ' events would be accompanied by atmospheric luminescence' ( already explained by other unrelated mechanisms )
* ' we suggest ( nothing more ) that our statistics-related hypothesis ( corroborated by other statisticians ? ) can qualitatively explain observations ( can they 'quantitatively' explain observations? )
Here's the link
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67860-3

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Your local weather reporting is dealing in probablilities, not inevitabilities. Successful prediction proves the model.

The two week forecast here just pushed rain out to the 12th, from the 7th of this month.

* Local weather comes in 5-minute resolution as a function of your physical address.
* It would be calculus they're using based upon real-time monitoring
* Talk of model success would require some specificity as to spatial and temporal parameters
* A two-week forecast is what it is. City ? County? State ? Region ? Country ?
* Money we could spend on better forecasting is spent on fancy headlights, financed over 72-months.