New Electric Truck Company - Lordstown Motor Corp - LMC

[Hersbird]

Originally Posted by JSH

The only advantage is packaging. With an inboard motor connecting to the wheel by a driveshaft you lose space inside the frame rails that could be used for more batteries. The downside is everything else: cost, weight, reliability.

Replacing motors every 50,000 miles is a huge deal compared to replacing a CV joint every 100K miles or so. If you want a dead simple and robust system you can just mount the motor onto a live axle.

Well we don't have CV joints now for comparison, but F'in A, why don't these makers just stick that under the dang van? I swear, it's like nobody wants to build and affordable EV. They act like they have to redesign the whole buggy when they just need a different horse.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Now a days cv joints and grease last until the boot fails.

Come to think of it I haven't replace a CV joint in awhile. My old GMC Jimmy went through front CV joint pretty frequently but it was used to deliver newspapers along with some mild off-roading. My 2003 VW, 2005 Prius, and 2009 Prius went 10, 12, and 10 years respectively on the original axles.

Originally Posted by Hersbird

Well we don't have CV joints now for comparison, but F'in A, why don't these makers just stick that under the dang van? I swear, it's like nobody wants to build and affordable EV. They act like they have to redesign the whole buggy when they just need a different horse.

BTW, that is a Meritor E axle for a semi

Live axles are inferior to independent suspension for most applications and electric motors make independent suspension really easy to package because the motor is so much smaller than an engine. It is better to start from scratch.



The expensive part of EVs are the batteries not the motor or body. That is what is preventing cheap EVs

[Hersbird]

Originally Posted by JSH

Come to think of it I haven't replace a CV joint in awhile. My old GMC Jimmy went through front CV joint pretty frequently but it was used to deliver newspapers along with some mild off-roading. My 2003 VW, 2005 Prius, and 2009 Prius went 10, 12, and 10 years respectively on the original axles.



BTW, that is a Meritor E axle for a semi

Live axles are inferior to independent suspension for most applications and electric motors make independent suspension really easy to package because the motor is so much smaller than an engine. It is better to start from scratch.



The expensive part of EVs are the batteries not the motor or body. That is what is preventing cheap EVs

So a $35,000 Tesla Model 3 is all battery? Clearly there is a ton of room to decontent and simplify a very fancy model 3 and lower that price a bunch. Or maybe Musk just threw a few out there so he wouldn't be a liar and it is $35,000 worth of battery and $10,000 worth of red ink for Tesla.

Still, just take a Ford transit van, put the Dana Spicer Electrified eS5700r e-Axle under the rear wheels, give it a battery that will carry it 60 miles at city speeds, and sell it to delivery fleets of USPS, FedEx, UPS, Amazon, florists, Best Buy, Home Depot, Office city, Dunder Mifflin, Cakes-R-US, etc, etc.
This building from the ground up is unnecessary, delaying implementation, and adding to the costs.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by Hersbird

So a $35,000 Tesla Model 3 is all battery? Clearly there is a ton of room to decontent and simplify a very fancy model 3 and lower that price a bunch. Or maybe Musk just threw a few out there so he wouldn't be a liar and it is $35,000 worth of battery and $10,000 worth of red ink for Tesla.

I didn't say it is "all battery" I said the battery is the most expensive part of an EV. A base Model 3 has a 54 kWh battery pack which is about $8000 at $150 / kWh. Also the cheapest Model 3 is $39,990 + $1200 delivery fee. It is a pretty basic car selling for luxury car prices. As of 2019, Tesla is still losing money selling EVs.

Originally Posted by Hersbird

Still, just take a Ford transit van, put the Dana Spicer Electrified eS5700r e-Axle under the rear wheels, give it a battery that will carry it 60 miles at city speeds, and sell it to delivery fleets of USPS, FedEx, UPS, Amazon, florists, Best Buy, Home Depot, Office city, Dunder Mifflin, Cakes-R-US, etc, etc.
This building from the ground up is unnecessary, delaying implementation, and adding to the costs.

It isn't nearly as simple as that. Where do you put the batteries? The Transit is unibody so you would have to redesign the floor to accommodate batteries, build new stamping tools, then test and certify that it still meets crash standards. Nobody is going to retrofit an old design to do that.

Mercedes has basically done that with the Sprinter. With the new redesign they built in the option to have a battery version. It comes with two different battery options: 41 kWh for 115 km ranger or 55 kWh for 168 km range. It won't be cheaper than the gas version as a battery that large is more expensive than an engine but we will see how it sells.

[ldjessee00]

Originally Posted by JSH

As of 2019, Tesla is still losing money selling EVs.

I do not think that is true. I think that they made a profit, put money in savings, and managed to build a new factory and tool it up, I believe from their filing that the Model 3 is profitable. Did I miss something?

In fact, I remember analysts saying that Tesla could not keep their high profit margins on each vehicle that they currently have, as it is so much higher than industry standard...

Unless you are assuming some accounting method that I have no idea about (which is possible, as I am not an accountant nor very knowledgeable about financial reporting of corporations).

[oil pan 4]

Originally Posted by Hersbird

That's as close as I expect to see us getting to a highway capable hub motor for quite some time.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by ldjessee00

I do not think that is true. I think that they made a profit, put money in savings, and managed to build a new factory and tool it up, I believe from their filing that the Model 3 is profitable. Did I miss something?

Depends on how you figure things, and what specifically you're looking at.

Tesla has posted 4 profitable quarters out of 68.

The base Model 3 is still available by phone order, and has a price of something like $35,600 plus $1000 delivery. I believe Tesla takes a loss on that. The SR+ has a pretty thin margin.

The whole success of Tesla hinges on them making a substantially better battery soon.

[ldjessee00]

I see percentages of around 20% for the Model 3 claimed by different articles, such as this one: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-made...rgin-cash-cow/

Even if that is averaged over models (ie, higher on the higher end models, less on the lower end models), still not sure how that is so bad, as many companies are structured that way with their products and do quite well. Not sure why Tesla cannot be successful with this approach.

And not just with their cars, but probably also their energy storage products and solar roofing. Time will tell.

[redpoint5]

Getting into the solar business was probably a mistake. You can't beat Chinese prices for PV panels, and the reviews of Tesla Solar are scathing. The only competitive advantage they have is transparent pricing (solar companies are like car dealerships), and offering a preset bundled packages. For example, they offer 4 sizes of solar output, so the system isn't custom built for each location. Rather, you choose the one most appropriate for your location and they apply the same formula over and over again. If you need something different, such as a different output, or a different mounting option like ground mount, you're not the customer they're looking for.

I believe Tesla is the only manufacturer to have a marginal profit from their EVs, but only on their more premium trims (and the fact that they are a premium brand). Batteries are so terrible that making EVs to be profitable is a serious challenge.

As I say, the long term success of Tesla comes down to significant improvement in battery chemistry or manufacturing.

I predict a plug-in hybrid era to boom before the EV era. It makes financial and environmental sense to size a battery to meet typical daily driving needs and no larger, and have an ICE tackle the longer trips.

Until batteries can get about twice as "good", there will be a strong case for plug-in hybrids.

[Hersbird]

As far as batteries in a Ford Transit conversion, the floor is already very high. Without a transmission or driveshaft in the way, there is a ton of room between the frame rails. Right now there is a 25 gallon feul tank on one side and an exhaust system on the other, with a driveshaft down the center. A Leaf 40 kWh pack is about the same size as a 30 gallon feul tank, there is easily room for 60 kWh of leaf modules in all that space, but I think 40 kWh would be enough for a day's work.