Tesla Model 3

[wdb]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[RedDevil]

Hmmm.

While Tesla's manufacturing process would have benefited from a more old-school approach, the company has an edge with regards to technology. The 75 kilowatt hour battery inside a Model 3 goes 310 miles on a charge, about 70 miles further than a Chevy Bolt and about triple what the BMW i3 can do. Tesla’s battery costs more than $13,000, Munro estimates, about $1,000 more than a Bolt.

So they cost almost the same to make, but it is a bigger car with a longer range. Choices, choices...

[Piotrsko]

I haven't seen pictures or videos of bolts catching fire lately.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Hmmm.

So they cost almost the same to make, but it is a bigger car with a longer range. Choices, choices...

The batteries cost almost the same to make.

[oil pan 4]

At least I could cut a check to replace my leaf battery.
People are going to have to mortgage their house, or take out a loan against their retirement, or a loan against the car it's self to pay for a replacement battery.
Then if you take a loan out against the car that will require full insurance, which can double the price of the loan.

[redpoint5]

I expect modern EVs to have a battery that lasts about 200,000 miles and 17 years. Cars are normally disposed of by then anyhow. EVs are more disposable than other vehicles for the very reason that battery technology advances during the course of the vehicle lifetime, rendering a replacement expensive and unappealing in an old chassis.

[oil pan 4]

20 years old and 200,000 miles used to be my starting point.
Before my leaf the newest car I ever bought was an 11 year old Toyota when I lived in japan. Over there 11 years is really, really old for a car.
My last car before the leaf is my 1989 firebird I got in 2016, with only 140,000 miles.

Hopefully electric cars can still be drivable as they hit 20 and 25 years, I expect supporting after market to pop up kind of like it has started to for the leaf.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

At least I could cut a check to replace my leaf battery.
People are going to have to mortgage their house, or take out a loan against their retirement, or a loan against the car it's self to pay for a replacement battery.
Then if you take a loan out against the car that will require full insurance, which can double the price of the loan.

It is very unlikely that a new EV with a liquid cooled/heated battery will ever need replacement. That active battery management prevents the heat issues that kill the Leaf battery. New EVs also have much greater range so the battery should be cycled lighter which also helps battery life. Then there is the fact that new EVs have such large batteries that even with the battery capacity depleted to 50% they still have a useful range. A Bolt with 50% of original range still goes 50% farther than my Spark did when new.

[redpoint5]

Yeah but degraded batteries degrade at an accelerating rate, not a linear rate. I expect current EVs to go 17 years or 200k miles on the original battery before dropping to 60% capacity. Time is also a factor that degrades batteries.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

Yeah but degraded batteries degrade at an accelerating rate, not a linear rate. I expect current EVs to go 17 years or 200k miles on the original battery before dropping to 60% capacity. Time is also a factor that degrades batteries.

A Bolt with 60% capacity can still go 140 miles on a charge. That is still a useful vehicle. What is your prediction for 25% of original capacity? That is when a Bolt would stop being useful for me. I suspect I would want a different vehicle by that time anyway. I generally buy a 2-3 year old car and keep it for 10 years.

In reality we don't know. As you said there are lots of factors involved in battery life including time. Nobody knows what a Li-Ion battery will do in 20 years because they haven't been around that long and the specific chemistry is changing.