Tesla Model 3

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

For Q3 they finally did deliver what they promised. Yes, they should have done that in previous quarters too. But now things are falling into place.
They are producing cars in largish numbers, they are now gradually scaling up instead of expanding explosively. There is no reason to assume things will go horribly wrong. Even if it did at times when they were ironing out the process.

When they are producing there needed volume - on 8 hours shifts - inside the plant - then they will have their process ironed out.

OH, and when they up their initial quality to this century. The guy I know at work with the Model 3 had his rear window spontaneously crack. Replaced under warranty but it took 3 weeks to get the part.

[RedDevil]

Quality issues hit any automaker. It would be strange if Tesla was the exception.
A colleague of mine sold his Merc because of recurring problems. I saw a Toyota windscreen crack spontaneously, for no reason whatsoever. A Volvo owner closed the door firmly but not smahing it or anything; the door window shattered and so did the opposite door window. My parents had 2 Renaults and herded problems so the dealership could fix them all in one go, as they would hardly be at home ever if these problems had to be fixed one by one.
Making cars is difficult. Many thousands of parts, there's always one that gets wrong.

Tesla finally did what they promised. Maybe they needed double shifts or whatnot, I don't know. But they kept word. I bet the worst is past.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Quality issues hit any automaker. It would be strange if Tesla was the exception....

Tesla is the exception in that they have so many issues and they are the only automaker in the USA that refuses to cooperate with JD Power's initial quality survey / ranking.

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Tesla finally did what they promised. Maybe they needed double shifts or whatnot, I don't know. But they kept word. I bet the worst is past.

Tesla delivered what Musk promised 8 months late. The worst isn't past, Musk has promised to release 3 new models in the next 2 years.

[RedDevil]

Pooh.
Of course I meant the goals they set earlier this year for Q3, which they met.
Yes, their previous estimates turned out to be overly optimistic.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

Pooh.
Of course I meant the goals they set earlier this year for Q3, which they met.
Yes, their previous estimates turned out to be overly optimistic.

Yes, I know you where saying that Tesla hit their 3Q goal. You seem to think that means Musk is going to hit his goals from here on. I don't.

Musk had the same goal for 1Q, 2Q and 3Q. He missed it twice and then hit it on the 3rd try. Keep the same goal long enough you will eventually hit it. The key is hitting the goal the first time.

That track record gives me zero confidence that Musk will hit his target for base model Model 3s the first time.

Time will tell.

[thingstodo]

Originally Posted by JSH

Musk had the same goal for 1Q, 2Q and 3Q. He missed it twice and then hit it on the 3rd try. Keep the same goal long enough you will eventually hit it. The key is hitting the goal the first time.

That track record gives me zero confidence that Musk will hit his target for base model Model 3s the first time.

As an outsider with no knowledge of Tesla's internal workings ... I've observed that Elon sets unrealistic goals as a matter of policy. It gives his SCRUM teams something to shoot for. As they run into the normal delays and problems, the projected schedules (I assume that they have them but do not share) get updated and flow back to management to allow for adjusting delivery of comsumables for production, transportation of finished product, etc.

If he set a goal that was attainable, there would be no incentive to STRIVE for the extra production/models/designs/whatever.

Elon has been *VERY* consistent. He has not met a goal, the first time he set the goal, 1 time in a row. Has he progressed production timelines faster than other car companies? I believe so. It seems that others think so as well.

But if you are banking on him making *ANY* of his short term goals ... perhaps any of his goals period ... the first time around ... well .. I'd suggest you have a better chance of winning the lottery

[RedDevil]

Standard battery Model 3 available in Q1 2019, that's a clear target.

[Fat Charlie]

And the standard battery is just a super battery with bunches of capacity locked down by software.

What it means is Tesla's catching up with preorders on higher end 3s and will start selling lower end ones soon.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by thingstodo

As an outsider with no knowledge of Tesla's internal workings ... I've observed that Elon sets unrealistic goals as a matter of policy. It gives his SCRUM teams something to shoot for. As they run into the normal delays and problems, the projected schedules (I assume that they have them but do not share) get updated and flow back to management to allow for adjusting delivery of comsumables for production, transportation of finished product, etc.

If he set a goal that was attainable, there would be no incentive to STRIVE for the extra production/models/designs/whatever.

Elon has been *VERY* consistent. He has not met a goal, the first time he set the goal, 1 time in a row. Has he progressed production timelines faster than other car companies? I believe so. It seems that others think so as well.

But if you are banking on him making *ANY* of his short term goals ... perhaps any of his goals period ... the first time around ... well .. I'd suggest you have a better chance of winning the lottery

Must be a software industry thing to set goals you never intend to meet.

I've worked in the auto industry for US, EU, and Japanese companies. NONE of them set a goal they don't intend to keep. Instead they set a realistic goal and hit it. If you don't hit that goal heads roll. Having everyone on the same page with 1 firm date is essential when you have thousands of parts that need to be tooled, produced, and delivered on time from hundreds of vendors.

Suppliers also need firm goals so they can plan their production. Most suppliers make parts for many different automakers so they need to balance their production schedule. You can't just say - "hey, just kidding, I don't need 5000 parts per week until next month". You are likely to miss your production window and might not get any parts.

Same thing for auto transporters. Those are booked well in advance of producing the car and there is a shortage of trucks. Every day a truck isn't on the road cost the owner $1000 - $2000. No trucking company is going to agree to reserve a spot for a company that keeps changing their mind. They are going to book their availability to companies that have cars ready to go when the truck arrives.

The auto industry is all about just in time / just in sequence. It doesn't work if schedules keep changing.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by Fat Charlie

And the standard battery is just a super battery with bunches of capacity locked down by software.

This was the case with the Model S 60 kWh battery, but not so with Model 3. For Tesla to turn a profit on a base Model 3, they can't afford to waste money on manufacturing unused battery capacity.

The Electrek article here says the large pack has 4,416 cells and the small one has 2,976 cells. Therefore the answer is no, the small back is not a software limited version of the large pack. Also, the small pack is 55 kWh, not 50 and the large pack is 80 kWh, not 75.

Model 3 80
Actual capacity: 80.5 kWh (350V*230Ah= 80,500 Wh. Source for 350V and 230 Ah, see page 3 here)
Usable capacity: 78.27 kWh
Cell count: 4,416

Model 3 55
Actual capacity: 54.25 kWh (This is an estimate calculated from cell counts: 80,500/4416*2976= 54,250 Wh)
Usable capacity: 52.75 kWh (This is an estimate calculated from cell counts: 78,270/4416*2976= 52,747 Wh)
Cell count: 2,976