Tesla Model 3

[freebeard]

The semi will obviously require a bigger assembly line. The rule-of-thumb in 1950s Detroit was they only needed to change 10% of parts for the new models. And it's really all about the tools that make the tools.

[RedDevil]

A snapshot from the past: https://phys.org/news/2015-01-tesla-...r-company.html

CEO Elon Musk ... said Tesla needs to show a profit, and will when it's selling 500,000 cars per year. He predicted that sales milestone will be reached in 2020, when its lower-cost car—the Model 3—is in full production.

That does not seem overly ambitious now.

[wdb]

I'm seeing Model 3's pretty regularly around here now. The store closure thing has me curious though; where would I go for warranty service and other work? The nearest "service center" to me is a bit over an hour away, and it is listed as a "store and service center". Is it closing?

And there's no way in the world I would ever buy something that costs that much money without laying hands on it first. I get that there's a cult that doesn't care, but I do. I suppose I could waylay a stranger and ask them to let me crawl over their car and take it for a test drive, but that might or might not go well.

I also looked for charging locations while I was checking their maps. Although I live on the periphery of the east coast megalopolis, my area is very ill served by charging stations. I understand Tesla is putting these stations up themselves, trying to solve the chicken/egg dilemma, and I think that's great. But unless I'm using it to commute into the maelstrom, a Tesla is not a practical vehicle for me at this time. In other words it would have to be a commuter vehicle, covering part of my needs. Even at $35K that does not seem economically sensible; my last commuting-centric purchase was a Honda Fit for $15K.

I continue to watch with interest. And the garage we're building will have 100A service.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by wdb

where would I go for warranty service and other work? The nearest "service center" to me is a bit over an hour away, and it is listed as a "store and service center". Is it closing?

They have never had a real viable plan for service. Tesla is banking on the cars not needing much. For the most part now, they send a tech to do the work in your parking lot if possible for warranty work. If needed they bring a loaner car on a flatbed and tow your car back to the service center.

[redpoint5]

I certainly understand the argument that one would not buy a car without being able to see/drive one first at a showroom, but I don't think younger generations have such reservations.

The first vehicle I ever purchased was the 2001 CBR in my avatar. I bid $5,500 for it on an Ebay auction in 2003 without being able to see the bike in person. My truck was bought at Ebay too, but I was able to see the truck beforehand since the DOT is nearby.

Things are increasingly going towards internet sales. Most of my clothing I buy online even though fit is so important. I'll either take a gamble that sizes are as listed, or I know that particular brand.

My guess is people will drive a friend's car and that will give them the confidence to purchase online.

Tesla has mobile repair, which probably makes more sense than a higher density of service centers, considering most things that will fail on a Tesla would be things like door handles, and other smaller components. Motors and batteries really shouldn't be failing.

[JSH]

Originally Posted by roflwaffle

It'll be expensive, but I don't think it has to break the bank. A quick search suggests the Y will be between $200 million and $600 million for tooling. Apparently lower volume tooling can also be less expensive with the trade-off of being less durable, but I couldn't find anything on how much less.

The last CUV mid-cycle refresh I was involved in cost $600 million. That was a new front clip, some small changes to the rear, and a mild restyling of the interior that kept the same mechanics and structure.

Musk has announce the Y will be made at the gigafactory which doesn't build the Model 3 today. That means a whole new assembly line

Originally Posted by roflwaffle

All things considered, I'm not sure how much the lines and tooling for the Y, Roadster, and Semi will cost, but Tesla has experience being involved in construction and can do at least some stuff in house. For instance one of their first acquisitions they made was a tool-and-die maker, so I wouldn't be surprised if they have some advantages in tooling costs.

It costs more than $1 billion to tool a new semi. You need all of the part tooling plus a new cab-in-white, dash line, and chassis line. Telsa may need new paint line too, it just depends on if the original line was built to accommodate the size and with enough extra capacity.

Most companies I worked for that have internal tool-and die use them for tooling repair and maintenance. When a tool breaks you need it fixed ASAP and with an internal shop you can prioritize jobs as needed. Some have done new tooling in-house to but the cost was very close to outside bids.

[JSH]

China has put a stop sale order on the Model 3 due to some issues found during customs inspection.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/05/tesla...-halted-china/

[RedDevil]

Apparently some decals or labels that should have been in the Chinese language were English.
Makes me wonder how that's been done with the Model X and S- es that have been imported in China for quite some time now.

Edit: Yup, missing and incorrect labels on the brake fluid tanks of some cars.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mode...ocked-customs/

And they are already released, problem solved.

[NeilBlanchard]

Model Y reveal is set for next Thursday, March 14th.

[RedDevil]

Saw my first Model 3 in the wild this morning.
Matte orange (!) probably a wrap.