The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[sendler]

So it takes nine years to complete a nuclear electricity plant even in China.
.
First AP1000 unit begins generating power
.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

The mass ejections spiral out on a ballistic trajectory, but there are also magnetic portals that act like hoses for charged particles.

Confirmed in 2007:
The Electric Sun/Earth Connection Confirmed

Mapped in 2014:
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/s...g-portals.html

Each planet's connection point wanders around on the surface of the Sun, sometimes on it's backside.

In the 1990s,NASA flew a satellite mission to research our solar system's heliosphere,which is analogous to a solar system-scale magnetosphere,which extends out from the Sun 100 X 93,000,000 miles.
Earth's magnetosphere is embedded within this heliosphere,and is interactive with it.
At the Sun's poles,there are 'holes' in the corona.Only at the poles,and they don't affect Earth.
In the ecliptic region of the heliosphere along which Earth orbits,Earth is exposed to what NASA spoke of as (electrical) 'current sheets' which exists in the magnetized plasma solar wind traveling at 400 km/s,which are associated with the solar magnetic lines of flux between sun and earth.
High-speed solar wind can overtake slow-speed solar wind,creating shock/acceleration 'corotating interaction regions' (CIR) which push intersteller plasma out of the solar system.
These current sheets and CIRs may underlie what they refer to as 'ropes.'It's a form of magnetic turbulence.
Earth's own magnetosphere is supposed to be able to deflect the solar wind,but as I understand it,a CME is an entirely different proposition.The Gauss of magnetosphere is no match for the inertia/momentum of a CME,and it just comes right through to the surface of the planet for the last extinction event.

[aerohead]

I did get to catch the June 27,2018,PBS' NOVA presentation,'RISE OF THE SUPERSTORMS',WGBH,Boston,2018.
I tried to transcribe the commentary as best I could.
The takeaways from the broadcast for me,were:
*the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was another record-breaking Black-Swan event.There's never been as many major storms in a single month.
*Harvey was predicted as a CAT-1,and ended up a CAT-4,a bit of a surprise.
*Maria grew from a tropical depression to a CAT-5 in only 54-hours.
*NASA now has a COYOTE drone which can hover,interrogating atmospheric conditions just above the sea surface for an hour.Something new for researchers.
*While Puerto Rico's 'official' death count was 64,at the time of broadcast,it is estimated that over 4,000 died of Maria-related causes.
*Half the population of Puerto Rico are diabetic and without power (refrigeration) insulin ruined,killing those without it.
*Paleoclimatologist,Andrea Dutton,of the University of Florida mentioned 'hot-spots' with respect to sea level rise.While the average,mean sea level of 3mm/year (1-foot/century) might be expected,portions of the Atlantic Ocean are experiencing 5-inches in 5-years,a non-linear,exponential rise.
*And she uses a new term to me,'compound flooding',to describe an extreme rain event in conjunction with a tidal surge.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you didn't catch it,it's worth a look,at:
PBS.ORG/Rise of the Superstorms

[aerohead]

Saturday,I finally got to watch Nate Hagen's,April,2017 Earth Day lecture at Rochester,N.Y. on YouTube.
I appreciate the link! Thanks!
Some comments:
*My opinion is that some of the presented data are contextual.
*As with many economic presentations,critical externalities are omitted,which skew the significance of some of the data.
*Especially disappointing,was the mention of Jevon's Paradox.I don't know if Mr. Hagen actually read the 'Coal Question',or if he's just parroting comments made by other messengers who have used Stanley Jevon's argument contextually.
*If the exception proves the rule,then a counterpoint to the futility of energy efficiency might be found in the experience of 21 member states of OECD nations,whom between 1973 and 1985,realized an almost 32% increase in joint GDP from a 20% improvement in energy efficiency,increasing energy use only 5% over the 12-year span.The savings were equivalent to 258,720,000,000 gallons/year,and carbon dioxide reduction of 5,070,912,000,000-pounds/year.
*Their 'heat-engine',on a GDP basis was shrunk.
*The 5% of total energy to find and deliver our energy doesn't reflect the portion of the Pentagon's $ half-trillion a year budget dedicated to escorting foreign hydrocarbon shipments to the US.
*With respect to the 90% of physical work done being associated with fossil energy,I might argue that we could trim total demand if we were willing to do with less Bertha's Kitty Boutiques,and Powder Milk Biscuits.
*As to 'advanced societies',I personally wouldn't use that term in connection with industrialized nations.
*If we're not replacing fossil fuels with renewables it's because we're not trying as a matter of policy.
So let's talk about it?

[NeilBlanchard]

Originally Posted by aerohead

I did get to catch the June 27,2018,PBS' NOVA presentation,'RISE OF THE SUPERSTORMS',WGBH,Boston,2018.
I tried to transcribe the commentary as best I could.
The takeaways from the broadcast for me,were:
*the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was another record-breaking Black-Swan event.There's never been as many major storms in a single month.
*Harvey was predicted as a CAT-1,and ended up a CAT-4,a bit of a surprise.
*Maria grew from a tropical depression to a CAT-5 in only 54-hours.
*NASA now has a COYOTE drone which can hover,interrogating atmospheric conditions just above the sea surface for an hour.Something new for researchers.
*While Puerto Rico's 'official' death count was 64,at the time of broadcast,it is estimated that over 4,000 died of Maria-related causes.
*Half the population of Puerto Rico are diabetic and without power (refrigeration) insulin ruined,killing those without it.
*Paleoclimatologist,Andrea Dutton,of the University of Florida mentioned 'hot-spots' with respect to sea level rise.While the average,mean sea level of 3mm/year (1-foot/century) might be expected,portions of the Atlantic Ocean are experiencing 5-inches in 5-years,a non-linear,exponential rise.
*And she uses a new term to me,'compound flooding',to describe an extreme rain event in conjunction with a tidal surge.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you didn't catch it,it's worth a look,at:
PBS.ORG/Rise of the Superstorms

Here's another NOVA program - I think this is the best one they every made!

NOVA - Official Website | Decoding the Weather Machine

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by aerohead

*As to 'advanced societies',I personally wouldn't use that term in connection with industrialized nations.

The definition of advance is to move forward. Time advances, or moves forward, and advanced societies (people) move forward along with time. If a society exists now, and others in the past do not, then we can consider it an advanced society, and the one no longer in existence to be non-advanced. Only time will tell if a society is advanced into the future. Industrialization is among the best descriptors of advanced societies, as most all of the hunter/gatherer societies have gone extinct. Given the option to retain a hunter/gatherer society, almost nobody chooses it.

*If we're not replacing fossil fuels with renewables it's because we're not trying as a matter of policy.

We are replacing fossil fuels with renewables, and it is because of policy. The unfortunate thing is that policy is only necessary when the desired behavior cannot be achieved by free and natural means. The authority of the state then must infringe upon freedom with the threat of force and violence to achieve this unnatural behavior.

I'm not saying there is no place for laws and policy, only that it should be used as sparingly as possible. When in doubt, err on the side of freedom.

This shows renewables replacing fossil fuels for quite some time, with 2002 marking the beginning of huge growth.

[RustyLugNut]

Originally Posted by sendler

So it takes nine years to complete a nuclear electricity plant even in China.
.
First AP1000 unit begins generating power
.

The concentrated energy we need tomorrow, needs to be built today.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by NeilBlanchard

Here's another NOVA program - I think this is the best one they every made!

NOVA - Official Website | Decoding the Weather Machine

Yes! I had a chance to see that one as well.Great show!
Other than AccuWeather mentioning the plight of the polar bears in the Arctic due to Global Warming (Bill Nye finally won it's owner over),PBS is the only network to even mention climate change on TV.Boo-Hiss!
It helps to have some contemporary data available,and know some of the current players.
I'm hoping that they'll say more about the Arctic,Greenland Ice Sheet,and West Antarctica.There are some troubling reports coming out of those areas.
Ya gotta love melting roads and roofs in the UK!

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

The definition of advance is to move forward. Time advances, or moves forward, and advanced societies (people) move forward along with time. If a society exists now, and others in the past do not, then we can consider it an advanced society, and the one no longer in existence to be non-advanced. Only time will tell if a society is advanced into the future. Industrialization is among the best descriptors of advanced societies, as most all of the hunter/gatherer societies have gone extinct. Given the option to retain a hunter/gatherer society, almost nobody chooses it.



We are replacing fossil fuels with renewables, and it is because of policy. The unfortunate thing is that policy is only necessary when the desired behavior cannot be achieved by free and natural means. The authority of the state then must infringe upon freedom with the threat of force and violence to achieve this unnatural behavior.

I'm not saying there is no place for laws and policy, only that it should be used as sparingly as possible. When in doubt, err on the side of freedom.

This shows renewables replacing fossil fuels for quite some time, with 2002 marking the beginning of huge growth.

*When I hear the term 'advanced',to me it connotes 'better' (like with laundry detergent),something a barker might peddle from Madison Ave..The Marshall Island refugees,today, living north of Fayetteville,Arkansas might have some interesting insights into how advanced our culture is.
*If the switch to renewables is a matter of US policy,it has completely escaped the press.I scan the broadscast news regularly and I've never heard mention of it.Ever.Federal incentives may be a way to 'silently' lubricate a transition away from fossil fuel combustion without ever speaking publicly of it,so as to be polite,and not ruffle those whose career dissipation lamps are beginning to glow.
*History may record that the free market was one of the most stupid ideas man could have come up with,at least after 1776.Adam Smith never lived to see a time when man's technology and the 'invisible hand' could quite literally destroy the very resource base on which it derives it's sustenance.
*Our climate challenge is largely due in part to ignorance on the part of consumers.Which rewarded ignorant industries.Which is in part due to lack of education.Which is due in part to the investment portfolio of the educator's pension fund,which is financed by profits from pistons and internal combustion,etc.. There may come a time when we can no longer afford some of the 'natural' consumer freedoms we've enjoyed in the past up until now.Policy will have a lot to do with that.So far,hedonic adaptation is King.
* 99% of a hangman's rope won't do you any harm.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by aerohead

*If the switch to renewables is a matter of US policy,it has completely escaped the press.

Federal initiatives aimed at developing and deploying renewable technologies are integrated in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. A recent addition to the Clean Air Act under Section 111(d), known as the Clean Power Plan, provides a policy framework for states to increase their power production from renewable sources...

The tax credits for solar and wind producers have been consistently renewed prior to their expiration dates. In December 2015, an extension of these federal tax credits was re-approved by Congress for solar and wind technology. Production tax credits for wind plants starting construction were extended until 2019, with credit value declining over a ten year time period. Investment tax credits are at 30% for solar plants starting construction, and are eligible until 2019.

Sure, these are "silent" ways that renewables are being expanded through Federal policy, but they appear to have an effect. Perhaps not as much of an effect as some would like, but quadrupling renewable energy in a decade seems pretty effective to me.

*History may record that the free market was one of the most stupid ideas man could have come up with,at least after 1776.Adam Smith never lived to see a time when man's technology and the 'invisible hand' could quite literally destroy the very resource base on which it derives it's sustenance.
*Our climate challenge is largely due in part to ignorance on the part of consumers.Which rewarded ignorant industries.Which is in part due to lack of education.Which is due in part to the investment portfolio of the educator's pension fund,which is financed by profits from pistons and internal combustion,etc.. There may come a time when we can no longer afford some of the 'natural' consumer freedoms we've enjoyed in the past up until now.Policy will have a lot to do with that.So far,hedonic adaptation is King.
* 99% of a hangman's rope won't do you any harm.

I'll point out that the end of every story is that everyone dies.

Perhaps we could all live as cavepeople with very limited numbers and enjoy 500 million years of adequate resources. Or, we could get smashed by an asteroid within that time-frame.

Bacteria don't multiply as sparingly as possible and slowly consume a food supply, saving it so that their colony can persist as far into the future as possible. Nature has chosen resource consumption as the best strategy for survival, and the bacteria's best bet is to eat while the food is there.

Consumption is not an invention of capitalism, it's encoded into DNA, and is neither virtuous or evil.

I'm all for wise and efficient use of resources, and I'll admit that in many ways we fail to wisely utilize these resources. That said, innovation and technological progress involves consuming more than subsistence levels of resources, and inevitably involves waste.

I do believe there are non-catastrophic solutions to seemingly runaway resource consumption, as the declining rate of population growth suggests. There are limits to resources, but there is no limit to resourcefulness.