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Old 12-13-2018, 08:33 PM   #4091 (permalink)
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EVs won't overburden electrical production, and likely will help to smooth the difference between peak and off-peak load. This is because most will be charged overnight, when there is lowest demand.

The biggest problem will be with fast charging infrastructure. There's talk of 350 kW chargers in the near future. Typical household consumption is 1.2 kW, so plugging in an EV on one of these chargers will be like 290 houses suddenly appearing on the grid. Multiply that by the number of chargers in use, and you've got a real problem trying to keep energy production exactly at demand, which is required by the grid.

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Old 12-13-2018, 09:31 PM   #4092 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerostealth View Post
For oil pan, love it when great wits say something is impossible. Strangely they continue to think the current state of affairs that is a spiraling impossibility is the only forward.

https://youtu.be/SwxmIYGpbn4
I never said it was impossible.
It's just impossible the way the believers want to do it.
No fossil fuels, no nuclear, use technology that doesn't exist, implementation of grid batteries on a currently impossible scale, ect.
If engineers are allowed to solve the problem instead of politicians then it will work.
The green party politicians are like "all we need is some solar, some wind, a few batteries and a few more hits off this bong".
I'm going by numbers and math not wish full thinking and mild physio active drugs.
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Old 12-14-2018, 12:04 AM   #4093 (permalink)
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2:1 efficiency improvement leaves 8 TW average for the world to replace with solar or wind. 13 million 2MW turbines at 33% CF. 170 tons of materials each. 2.7 Gigatons.
.
1 billion cars in the world. 1.7 tons each. 1.7 Gigatons
.
We probably ought to decide which to really focus on next.
.

One construction crew can install and commision 50 2MW turbines per year. Capacity factor of 33% gives 33MW actual capacity per year per crew.
.
24 million crew years to install 8 TW of wind. If they last 24 years, we need 1 million crews working continously forever to power the world with wind. More or less. Towers last longer so the second and third time through would be easier.
.
20 hours of storage for the world would require 1.6 million BigF'nBatteries at 100 MWh each. 250 GigaFactories for 25 years and then forever to keep recycling them. If they could last 25 years.
 
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Old 12-14-2018, 12:30 AM   #4094 (permalink)
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I think we have 1 giga factory, soon to be 2.
Hmmmm, ain't lookin good.
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:16 AM   #4095 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
I think we have 1 giga factory, soon to be 2.
Hmmmm, ain't lookin good.
Might be up to 3 or 4 in world total right now. 247 to go.
 
Old 12-14-2018, 08:17 AM   #4096 (permalink)
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Wow! 1,000 tons of concrete for each pad at Musselroe. Offshore monopiles are 650 tons for 6MW turbines. I just went with the low side of the first value that poped up to show the monumental scale of the task to replace fossil fuel ahead.
.
https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-size.php
.
So increase my total above by 5X to include the concrete and steel for pads. 15 GigaTons.
.
All installed with liquid fueled heavy equipment.
.
We would be wise to base all of the design decisions in such a way that we plan to reuse all of the foundations and towers for 100 years. Or as long as possible.
.
https://youtu.be/ZxeQeJ4jW-4
.
I couldn't find out how many man days were worked to install the 50 turbines at Musselroe but they stated 15 months. One million of these teams working constantly for 24 years to replace half our energy with wind. And then constanly forever to maintain it.
 
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:23 AM   #4097 (permalink)
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How many people work in the energy industry now? Should be millions too.
Same people, different jobs.
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Old 12-14-2018, 11:42 AM   #4098 (permalink)
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Electricity can be generated renewabally, and electric cars can be powered using renewable electricity. Gasoline cars have to have gasoline period, there is no other option for them other hydrogen possibly which has a negative ROI. The pathway towards a lower carbon emissions future are pretty clear if you are being intellectually honest about the subject.
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Old 12-14-2018, 11:51 AM   #4099 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
How many people work in the energy industry now? Should be millions too.
Same people, different jobs.
Yes. Maybe 3-400 million people for the industry might manufacture, transport, and install the half million turbines per year it would take to replace 1/2 of all energy in 25 years. If we can allocate the 15 GigaTons of materials.
 
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Old 12-14-2018, 01:26 PM   #4100 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
2:1 efficiency improvement leaves 8 TW average for the world to replace with solar or wind. 13 million 2MW turbines at 33% CF. 170 tons of materials each. 2.7 Gigatons.
.
1 billion cars in the world. 1.7 tons each. 1.7 Gigatons
.
We probably ought to decide which to really focus on next.
.

One construction crew can install and commision 50 2MW turbines per year. Capacity factor of 33% gives 33MW actual capacity per year per crew.
.
24 million crew years to install 8 TW of wind. If they last 24 years, we need 1 million crews working continously forever to power the world with wind. More or less. Towers last longer so the second and third time through would be easier.
.
20 hours of storage for the world would require 1.6 million BigF'nBatteries at 100 MWh each. 250 GigaFactories for 25 years and then forever to keep recycling them. If they could last 25 years.
If I buy a Powerwall and drive a Prius, can I smug around town in light of this information?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
How many people work in the energy industry now? Should be millions too.
Same people, different jobs.
sendler said a million crews, not million people. There are many people on a crew.

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