Go Back   EcoModder Forum > Off-Topic > The Lounge
Register Now
 Register Now
 


Closed Thread  Post New Thread
 
Submit Tools LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 02-23-2019, 01:35 PM   #5091 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
aerohead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sanger,Texas,U.S.A.
Posts: 13,270
Thanks: 21,199
Thanked 6,437 Times in 4,013 Posts
link to a study

Quote:
Originally Posted by redpoint5 View Post
A 2 degree rise here at the 45th means I can stop wearing flannel earlier in the year.



If you have a link to the study that predicts 50% crop failure, I'd like to see it. Sounds like a whataboutism to me.
NATURE,Volume 543,16 March,2017,p 290
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
'CLIMATE CHANGE: Warming poses risk to US farming'
Xin Zhong Liang et al.,
University of Maryland,College park,MD,USA
study: effects of regional climate on US farming economy,for Midwest corn and soybean.
*Agricultural productivity in the US could return to pre-1980s levels by 2050
*Between 1981 and 2010,delta-T and delta- rain = 70% of change in productivity
*Data incorporated,with current climate projections into a model,yielded:
-under medium greenhouse gas emission scenario,farm productivity will fall by 2.8% per year,cutting farm output by 50% by 2034.
-under high GHG emissions,farm output would fall by 4.3%/year,with a 50% drop by 2026.
*Top contributor to decline is hotter summers
From Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,USA
http://doi.org/b2vg(2017)
-as mentioned,farm output could be at pre-1980s level by 2050.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are other issues farmers are facing which don't bode well for the future
of doubling the food supply from 2005 levels by 2050.

__________________
Photobucket album: http://s1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj622/aerohead2/
 
The Following User Says Thank You to aerohead For This Useful Post:
NeilBlanchard (02-25-2019)
Alt Today
Popular topics

Other popular topics in this forum...

   
Old 02-23-2019, 01:47 PM   #5092 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
aerohead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sanger,Texas,U.S.A.
Posts: 13,270
Thanks: 21,199
Thanked 6,437 Times in 4,013 Posts
where

Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
I forget the citation, maybe Black Pigeon Speaks, but statement was that in Japan the ageing population isn't blamed on old people, but on young people not having babies.

On sea level, Scott Adams asks that if the ocean levels are rising, where are the islands that are disappearing? It would seem that you could take proxies like Pitcairn, Easter and San Diego islands and compare those over time.

I hear more stories about islands rising up via vulcanism.
*On the trip to test drive the Tesla,I met some climate refugee,Marshallese,Marshall Islanders who'd relocated to Fayetteville,Arkansas,out of necessity
*There's an indigenous American Indian tribe in Louisiana which has been forced off their island home.
*There is a new Hawaiian island coming up,who's summit is about 1,000-feet underwater.
__________________
Photobucket album: http://s1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj622/aerohead2/
 
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to aerohead For This Useful Post:
freebeard (02-23-2019), NeilBlanchard (02-25-2019), RedDevil (02-23-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 01:56 PM   #5093 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
aerohead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sanger,Texas,U.S.A.
Posts: 13,270
Thanks: 21,199
Thanked 6,437 Times in 4,013 Posts
wiki

Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
as they mention,it's important to understand the our present Earth is physically different from back then.
__________________
Photobucket album: http://s1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj622/aerohead2/
 
The Following User Says Thank You to aerohead For This Useful Post:
NeilBlanchard (02-25-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 02:24 PM   #5094 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
aerohead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sanger,Texas,U.S.A.
Posts: 13,270
Thanks: 21,199
Thanked 6,437 Times in 4,013 Posts
Economics

The 16 March,2017,NATURE listed five new titles for 2017:
*After Piketty:The Agenda for Economics and Inequality
Edited by Heather Boushey,J.Bradford Delong and Marshall Steinbaum
Harvard University Press:2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Toxic Inequality:How America's Wealth Gap Destroys Mobility,Deepens the Racial Divide,and Threatens Our Future
Thomas M.Shapiro
Basic:2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Basic Income:A Radical Proposal for a Free Society and a Sane Economy
Phillipe Van Parus and Yannick Vanderborght
Harvard University Press:2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*The Broken Ladder:How Inequality Affects the Way We Think,Live,and Die
Keith Payne
Viking:2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
*The Great Leveller:Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century
Walter Scheidel
Princeton University Press:2017
__________________
Photobucket album: http://s1271.photobucket.com/albums/jj622/aerohead2/
 
The Following User Says Thank You to aerohead For This Useful Post:
NeilBlanchard (02-25-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 04:47 PM   #5095 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
freebeard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: northwest of normal
Posts: 20,889
Thanks: 5,850
Thanked 6,820 Times in 5,516 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil
Quote:
Originally Posted by oil pan 4
that's why only 12% of voters are stupid enough to think that making the government bigger and putting them in charge of fixing global warming is a good idea.
It is good no?
If only 12% get it it means 88% is stupid.
"I think what we have here is a failure to communicate."
Roscoe P. Coltrane
__________________

Insolight solar shows solar cells that have high-efficiency cells covering 5% of the panel, with optical concentrators over them, for an overall 30% efficiency.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=insolight+solar
__________________

While they're spinning those 80-year predictions, this paper was just released:
Environmental Research Letters
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT The following article is Open access
Year-ahead predictability of South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...48-9326/ab006a

Quote:
Abstract

Since the South Asia Summer Monsoon is the main source of water for a densely cultivated and climate-sensitive region, its predictability has long been the target of research. This work estimates the predictability horizon of monsoon precipitation amount by systematically comparing statistical forecasts made using information from different lead times before the monsoon start. Linear and nonlinear prediction methods are considered that use the leading modes of the global sea surface temperature field to forecast monsoon-season (June-September) total precipitation on a 0.5 degree grid over South Asia, where each method is trained on data from 1901-1996 and evaluated on data from 1997-2017. Forecasts were found to outperform a climatology baseline up to at least 1 year ahead, with a nonlinear method (random forest) on average outperforming linear regression with group lasso, although with greater variability in skill across locations and years. Forecast performance measures (fractional reduction in root mean square error and information skill score) decreased with increasing lead time following exponential decay timescales of 5-12 months, depending on the performance measure and forecast method. Even at lead times of several years, there was some forecast skill compared to climatology, as a result of the impact of long-term climate change on monsoon precipitation. The results suggest that monsoon prediction is possible with longer lead times than generally attempted now.
__________________
.
hallucination: uncontrolled perception
perception: controlled hallucination
Anil Seth

____________________
 
The Following User Says Thank You to freebeard For This Useful Post:
aerohead (02-23-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 05:02 PM   #5096 (permalink)
In the fasting lane
 
RedDevil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Nieuwegein, the Netherlands
Posts: 3,967

Red Devil - '11 Honda Insight Elegance
Team Honda
90 day: 51.56 mpg (US)
Thanks: 1,689
Thanked 2,208 Times in 1,429 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
"I think what we have here is a failure to communicate."
Roscoe P. Coltrane
The good was in reference of Sendler's post. 20% wind and 17% solar is a nice gain, a move in the right direction.
__________________
2011 Honda Insight + HID, LEDs, tiny PV panel, extra brake pad return springs, neutral wheel alignment, 44/42 PSI (air), PHEV light (inop), tightened wheel nut.
lifetime FE over 0.17 Gmeter or 0.1 Mmile.



Investors woes:
"In hindsight, I should have placed a bet on the horse that won the race"
"In hindsight, I should have bet more on that horse"

Last edited by RedDevil; 02-23-2019 at 05:14 PM..
 
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to RedDevil For This Useful Post:
aerohead (02-23-2019), freebeard (02-23-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 05:41 PM   #5097 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
sendler's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Syracuse, NY USA
Posts: 2,935

Honda CBR250R FI Single - '11 Honda CBR250R
90 day: 105.14 mpg (US)

2001 Honda Insight stick - '01 Honda Insight manual
90 day: 60.68 mpg (US)

2009 Honda Fit auto - '09 Honda Fit Auto
90 day: 38.51 mpg (US)

PCX153 - '13 Honda PCX150
90 day: 104.48 mpg (US)

2015 Yamaha R3 - '15 Yamaha R3
90 day: 80.94 mpg (US)

Ninja650 - '19 Kawasaki Ninja 650
90 day: 72.57 mpg (US)
Thanks: 326
Thanked 1,314 Times in 967 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
The good was in reference of Sendler's post. 20% wind and 17% solar is a nice gain, a move in the right direction.
Yes. But adding these intermittents to the grid has made the price of electricity in Germany among the highest in the world for developed countries.
.
Well... It was 20% of electrical production from the wind. The solar only peaked at 17% capacity factor. For a couple hours. What was the area under the graph for the day as a percentage of the total consumption? Today was much sunnier and since it was Saturday the total electrical consumption was lower. But they do show some very effective demand control today.
.
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page...countryCode=DE
.
The solar in Cali always looks funny since many panel installs have been incentivised to face more to the West.
.
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page...ntryCode=US-CA
.
 
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to sendler For This Useful Post:
aerohead (02-23-2019), RedDevil (02-23-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 06:16 PM   #5098 (permalink)
In the fasting lane
 
RedDevil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Nieuwegein, the Netherlands
Posts: 3,967

Red Devil - '11 Honda Insight Elegance
Team Honda
90 day: 51.56 mpg (US)
Thanks: 1,689
Thanked 2,208 Times in 1,429 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Yes. But adding these intermittents to the grid has made the price of electricity in Germany among the highest in the world for developed countries.
I think it is the other way round. Raising the cost of electricity, in combination with subsidies for renewable power generation, made building those profitable in an economic sense for the owners.

They were always profitable in other senses of course.
Building windmills and PV installations reduce energy imports, which shifts the trade balance and creates local jobs.
This added benefit makes it worthwhile for nations to invest to stimulate these developments; the economy as a whole grows.

As for intermittent effects, a lot of that can be ironed out by battery storages like Hornsdale which quickly earns itself back for its owners while making the grid much more reliable.
__________________
2011 Honda Insight + HID, LEDs, tiny PV panel, extra brake pad return springs, neutral wheel alignment, 44/42 PSI (air), PHEV light (inop), tightened wheel nut.
lifetime FE over 0.17 Gmeter or 0.1 Mmile.



Investors woes:
"In hindsight, I should have placed a bet on the horse that won the race"
"In hindsight, I should have bet more on that horse"
 
The Following User Says Thank You to RedDevil For This Useful Post:
aerohead (02-27-2019)
Old 02-23-2019, 07:07 PM   #5099 (permalink)
Master EcoModder
 
sendler's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Syracuse, NY USA
Posts: 2,935

Honda CBR250R FI Single - '11 Honda CBR250R
90 day: 105.14 mpg (US)

2001 Honda Insight stick - '01 Honda Insight manual
90 day: 60.68 mpg (US)

2009 Honda Fit auto - '09 Honda Fit Auto
90 day: 38.51 mpg (US)

PCX153 - '13 Honda PCX150
90 day: 104.48 mpg (US)

2015 Yamaha R3 - '15 Yamaha R3
90 day: 80.94 mpg (US)

Ninja650 - '19 Kawasaki Ninja 650
90 day: 72.57 mpg (US)
Thanks: 326
Thanked 1,314 Times in 967 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedDevil View Post
I think it is the other way round. Raising the cost of electricity, in combination with subsidies for renewable power generation, made building those profitable in an economic sense for the owners.
Unforunately this a very common misconception and is knowingly put forward in the green press. But it is unmistakable that developed markets that attempt to install a high percentage of solar or wind ends up with increased price to the consumer since most of the original thermal capacity must be retained and occasionally sits idle on standby. There is also added expense from the additional transmission that is required. And the rate payers are also on the hokk for some of the added incentives for rebuildables in the form of rebates on cap cost and feed in rate bonuses.
.
Look at Germany, California and the worst case secenario in South Australia where they are constantly on the edge of a brown out all summer long due to installing a substantial percentage of wind and prematurely retiring some of the thermal generation. They are unfortunately now stuck with the most volatile wholesale pricing in the world with pricing sometims as high as $2,000/ MWh.
.
Rebuildable electricity is only cheaper on paper. When you look at the real world effects, it is always more expensive.
.
But whatever solar we can build out will be much better than nothing in 100 years.
 
The Following User Says Thank You to sendler For This Useful Post:
aerohead (02-27-2019)
Old 02-24-2019, 06:57 AM   #5100 (permalink)
In the fasting lane
 
RedDevil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Nieuwegein, the Netherlands
Posts: 3,967

Red Devil - '11 Honda Insight Elegance
Team Honda
90 day: 51.56 mpg (US)
Thanks: 1,689
Thanked 2,208 Times in 1,429 Posts
The problem is the constant demand market irrespective of cost, but that is changing. Flexibility is required - and available.
If more homes have a power wall (or an EV with a charge margin) and the price of electricity varies with demand then you'll see the power walls fill in that demand nicely.

South Australia's Hornsdale battery proves this by keeping electricity costs down and preventing those brown-outs (which was the main reason to build it in the first place).

__________________
2011 Honda Insight + HID, LEDs, tiny PV panel, extra brake pad return springs, neutral wheel alignment, 44/42 PSI (air), PHEV light (inop), tightened wheel nut.
lifetime FE over 0.17 Gmeter or 0.1 Mmile.



Investors woes:
"In hindsight, I should have placed a bet on the horse that won the race"
"In hindsight, I should have bet more on that horse"

Last edited by RedDevil; 02-24-2019 at 07:03 AM..
 
The Following User Says Thank You to RedDevil For This Useful Post:
aerohead (02-27-2019)
Closed Thread  Post New Thread


Tags
lies, opinion, reality, scam

Thread Tools




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.5.2
All content copyright EcoModder.com