The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

A 2 degree rise here at the 45th means I can stop wearing flannel earlier in the year.



If you have a link to the study that predicts 50% crop failure, I'd like to see it. Sounds like a whataboutism to me.

NATURE,Volume 543,16 March,2017,p 290
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS
'CLIMATE CHANGE: Warming poses risk to US farming'
Xin Zhong Liang et al.,
University of Maryland,College park,MD,USA
study: effects of regional climate on US farming economy,for Midwest corn and soybean.
*Agricultural productivity in the US could return to pre-1980s levels by 2050
*Between 1981 and 2010,delta-T and delta- rain = 70% of change in productivity
*Data incorporated,with current climate projections into a model,yielded:
-under medium greenhouse gas emission scenario,farm productivity will fall by 2.8% per year,cutting farm output by 50% by 2034.
-under high GHG emissions,farm output would fall by 4.3%/year,with a 50% drop by 2026.
*Top contributor to decline is hotter summers
From Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,USA
http://doi.org/b2vg(2017)
-as mentioned,farm output could be at pre-1980s level by 2050.
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There are other issues farmers are facing which don't bode well for the future
of doubling the food supply from 2005 levels by 2050.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

I forget the citation, maybe Black Pigeon Speaks, but statement was that in Japan the ageing population isn't blamed on old people, but on young people not having babies.

On sea level, Scott Adams asks that if the ocean levels are rising, where are the islands that are disappearing? It would seem that you could take proxies like Pitcairn, Easter and San Diego islands and compare those over time.

I hear more stories about islands rising up via vulcanism.

*On the trip to test drive the Tesla,I met some climate refugee,Marshallese,Marshall Islanders who'd relocated to Fayetteville,Arkansas,out of necessity
*There's an indigenous American Indian tribe in Louisiana which has been forced off their island home.
*There is a new Hawaiian island coming up,who's summit is about 1,000-feet underwater.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by sendler

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoc...hermal_Maximum

as they mention,it's important to understand the our present Earth is physically different from back then.

[aerohead]

The 16 March,2017,NATURE listed five new titles for 2017:
*After Piketty:The Agenda for Economics and Inequality
Edited by Heather Boushey,J.Bradford Delong and Marshall Steinbaum
Harvard University Press:2017
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*Toxic Inequality:How America's Wealth Gap Destroys Mobility,Deepens the Racial Divide,and Threatens Our Future
Thomas M.Shapiro
Basic:2017
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*Basic Income:A Radical Proposal for a Free Society and a Sane Economy
Phillipe Van Parus and Yannick Vanderborght
Harvard University Press:2017
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*The Broken Ladder:How Inequality Affects the Way We Think,Live,and Die
Keith Payne
Viking:2017
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*The Great Leveller:Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century
Walter Scheidel
Princeton University Press:2017

[freebeard]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

It is good no?
If only 12% get it it means 88% is stupid.

"I think what we have here is a failure to communicate."

Roscoe P. Coltrane

__________________

Insolight solar shows solar cells that have high-efficiency cells covering 5% of the panel, with optical concentrators over them, for an overall 30% efficiency.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=insolight+solar
__________________

While they're spinning those 80-year predictions, this paper was just released:

Environmental Research Letters
ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT • The following article is Open access
Year-ahead predictability of South Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...48-9326/ab006a

Abstract

Since the South Asia Summer Monsoon is the main source of water for a densely cultivated and climate-sensitive region, its predictability has long been the target of research. This work estimates the predictability horizon of monsoon precipitation amount by systematically comparing statistical forecasts made using information from different lead times before the monsoon start. Linear and nonlinear prediction methods are considered that use the leading modes of the global sea surface temperature field to forecast monsoon-season (June-September) total precipitation on a 0.5 degree grid over South Asia, where each method is trained on data from 1901-1996 and evaluated on data from 1997-2017. Forecasts were found to outperform a climatology baseline up to at least 1 year ahead, with a nonlinear method (random forest) on average outperforming linear regression with group lasso, although with greater variability in skill across locations and years. Forecast performance measures (fractional reduction in root mean square error and information skill score) decreased with increasing lead time following exponential decay timescales of 5-12 months, depending on the performance measure and forecast method. Even at lead times of several years, there was some forecast skill compared to climatology, as a result of the impact of long-term climate change on monsoon precipitation. The results suggest that monsoon prediction is possible with longer lead times than generally attempted now.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by freebeard

"I think what we have here is a failure to communicate."

Roscoe P. Coltrane

The good was in reference of Sendler's post. 20% wind and 17% solar is a nice gain, a move in the right direction.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

The good was in reference of Sendler's post. 20% wind and 17% solar is a nice gain, a move in the right direction.

Yes. But adding these intermittents to the grid has made the price of electricity in Germany among the highest in the world for developed countries.
.
Well... It was 20% of electrical production from the wind. The solar only peaked at 17% capacity factor. For a couple hours. What was the area under the graph for the day as a percentage of the total consumption? Today was much sunnier and since it was Saturday the total electrical consumption was lower. But they do show some very effective demand control today.
.
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page...countryCode=DE
.
The solar in Cali always looks funny since many panel installs have been incentivised to face more to the West.
.
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page...ntryCode=US-CA
.

[RedDevil]

Originally Posted by sendler

Yes. But adding these intermittents to the grid has made the price of electricity in Germany among the highest in the world for developed countries.

I think it is the other way round. Raising the cost of electricity, in combination with subsidies for renewable power generation, made building those profitable in an economic sense for the owners.

They were always profitable in other senses of course.
Building windmills and PV installations reduce energy imports, which shifts the trade balance and creates local jobs.
This added benefit makes it worthwhile for nations to invest to stimulate these developments; the economy as a whole grows.

As for intermittent effects, a lot of that can be ironed out by battery storages like Hornsdale which quickly earns itself back for its owners while making the grid much more reliable.

[sendler]

Originally Posted by RedDevil

I think it is the other way round. Raising the cost of electricity, in combination with subsidies for renewable power generation, made building those profitable in an economic sense for the owners.

Unforunately this a very common misconception and is knowingly put forward in the green press. But it is unmistakable that developed markets that attempt to install a high percentage of solar or wind ends up with increased price to the consumer since most of the original thermal capacity must be retained and occasionally sits idle on standby. There is also added expense from the additional transmission that is required. And the rate payers are also on the hokk for some of the added incentives for rebuildables in the form of rebates on cap cost and feed in rate bonuses.
.
Look at Germany, California and the worst case secenario in South Australia where they are constantly on the edge of a brown out all summer long due to installing a substantial percentage of wind and prematurely retiring some of the thermal generation. They are unfortunately now stuck with the most volatile wholesale pricing in the world with pricing sometims as high as $2,000/ MWh.
.
Rebuildable electricity is only cheaper on paper. When you look at the real world effects, it is always more expensive.
.
But whatever solar we can build out will be much better than nothing in 100 years.

[RedDevil]

The problem is the constant demand market irrespective of cost, but that is changing. Flexibility is required - and available.
If more homes have a power wall (or an EV with a charge margin) and the price of electricity varies with demand then you'll see the power walls fill in that demand nicely.

South Australia's Hornsdale battery proves this by keeping electricity costs down and preventing those brown-outs (which was the main reason to build it in the first place).