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Old 05-13-2019, 12:52 AM   #5831 (permalink)
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Actually, 2.1. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=population+replacement+rate

If the available occupations are hazardous why would you not round up?

Thank goodness all those [hazardous] truck driver jobs are going away, eh?

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Old 05-14-2019, 10:33 PM   #5832 (permalink)
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Exxon climate change graph - from 1982:

https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status...12891935305728

They nailed it. In 1982 ...
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Old 05-14-2019, 11:11 PM   #5833 (permalink)
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Limits to growth in 1972 was pretty accurate also.
.
.

.
.
"This suggests, from a rational riskbased perspective, that we have squandered the past decades, and that preparing for a collapsing
global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse."
.
https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/_...urner_2014.pdf
.
Simplify now and beat the rush.

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Old 05-15-2019, 01:03 AM   #5834 (permalink)
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Okay, you made me look. Everything that was in book cases is in boxes so I'd been putting it off. Howsomever, I have in hand a hard copy of Transition:


TRANSITION: A Book on Future Energy; Nuclear or Solar?
by Oregon Office of Energy Research (Author)
Be the first to review this item


This interesting document was commissioned by the Oregon State legislature in 1973, delivered to Governor Tom McCall on 1 January, 1975 and then Governor McCall was succeeded by Governor Bob Straub on 13 January, who promptly buried it.

The flowchart and systems analysis was unheard of at the time, but the document is poorly formatted and opaque. Still, a seminal document that went nowhere.

A different world was possible... for two weeks.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:31 AM   #5835 (permalink)
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I hear talk of dates, yet none are presented in either of the graphs. If an axis represents time, it needs to delineate what that time is.
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Old 05-15-2019, 01:14 PM   #5836 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
Formatting. Dropping the asterisks and applying an unordered list is less keystrokes.

The Sun's Heliosphere extends to beyond Pluto, much larger that a refrigerator magnet. The gradient is steeper and much longer.

I'd have to refresh my memory but the theory is that one thing affects the timing and another the location of earthquakes. It's predictive.



It the upper end of the scale the 'particles' reach the surface on fire or bury themselves in it.

What do you think of the hypothesis that the Sun is black (i.e., radiating in UV), and the Photosphere is visibly luminescent. It's not just contrast in the imaging.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) of the Sun's heliosphere,extends out to it's termination at the heliopause,which is 11-billion miles from the Sun.
A refrigerator magnet has a stronger magnetic field than the IMF.The Sun's magnetic field would vary as the inverse-square of the distance from its surface,finally petering out at 11-billion miles out.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Volcanism and earthquakes are purely a symptom of Issac Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation,and multi-body resonance. The axial, mass heterogeniety of Earth's shape,combined with gravitational forces of the entire solar system,deform the atmosphere,oceans, and lithosphere, under tidal forces; which creates plate tectonics,sea-floor spreading,volcanic eruptions,earthquakes,mountain ranges,and volcanic islands.This effect was predicted,purely from Newton's Law for the moon Io,and a week later Voyager arrived only to find the entire surface pockmarked with active volcanoes.Same for Europa,Enceladus,and Tycho (if my memory is working).There are some precursor events on Earth,which have been associated with impending volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.Seismic swarms,gases released from rising magma columns, which can either unplug a volcano,or lubricate the asperities along a fault,allowing stress-relieving slip (seismic activity).Eruptions on Hawaii are routinely witnessed after so much tilt has built up.Currently,the greatest source of earthquakes in the US is from Hydrological fracturing (fracking)during oil and gas operations.Thousands!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most asteroids and comets of resonant cycles with the Earth have already been accreted to Earth during the heavy bombardment periods of Earth's history,but there's a little left out there,and under constant monitoring,worldwide.Most everything else is in stable,or self-stabilizing orbits for the duration.Mercury could be a problem,but it's a low-probability.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Moon is black,but the Sun is active,almost across the entire electromagnetic spectrum,from infrared-to-X-ray.Our retinas are limited in the wavelengths they can perceive,but we've got spectrometers which can 'see' everything else.If for no other reason,the observation of the visible spectrum would generally rule out,calling the Sun black.We see 5,000 degrees Kelvin from it.Same as some light bulbs.The center of the Earth is just as bright!
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:04 PM   #5837 (permalink)
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How much?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grant-53 View Post
How much of this debate is based on political or religious arguments? Don't mind my asking but I am trained in statistical quality control, experiment design, and Cause/Effect studies. I would like to do more than look at historical temperature data. I just don't want to waste trillions of dollars barking up the wrong tree.
Many of the authors I've read would suggest that politics and religion would only constitute a portion of an immense,complicated,and sophisticated tapestry,which incorporates the entire potential for human beliefs,attitudes,and behaviors.
Lack of critical thinking and lack of education almost seems like a universal theme running through the heart of the literature.
Many in the scientific community speak of a 'war on science,' and mistrust of the scientific community.
Everyone has 'influencers' in their lives,who have the power to shape opinion and beliefs.
Humans didn't evolve and select for an industrial society and quite literally,do not possess the means with which to deal with abstract,future crisis,as climate change.
Psychologists talk of all the tools available to mold individual and public opinion.
Some speak of purely fear-based behaviors,centered on perceived,potential economic loss and instability associated with climate 'solutions.' 'Stranded -assets.'
Obviously,now we have bonafide,prima facie evidence of concerted conspiracies to sow doubt about climate change and impact government policies which would affect business models.
It goes on forever.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:15 PM   #5838 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sendler View Post
Limits to growth in 1972 was pretty accurate also.
.
.

.
.
"This suggests, from a rational riskbased perspective, that we have squandered the past decades, and that preparing for a collapsing
global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse."
.
https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/_...urner_2014.pdf
.
Simplify now and beat the rush.
If the economists will exhibit full transparency,and a full accounting of actual costs,the free-market will probably sort the whole thing out on its own, over some organic timescale,incrementally.The one-percenters used to request 12-years in which to move their investment portfolio around to a new paradigm.That's well within the time frame climate scientists say we have as a safety margin.
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Old 05-15-2019, 03:22 PM   #5839 (permalink)
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Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by myself
The Sun's Heliosphere extends to beyond Pluto, much larger that a refrigerator magnet. The gradient is steeper and gentler but much longer.

I'd have to refresh my memory but the theory is that one thing affects the timing and another the location of earthquakes. It's predictive.



It the upper end of the scale the 'particles' reach the surface on fire or bury themselves in it.

What do you think of the hypothesis that the Sun is black (i.e., radiating in UV), and the Photosphere is visibly luminescent. It's not just contrast in the imaging.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) of the Sun's heliosphere,extends out to it's termination at the heliopause,which is 11-billion miles from the Sun.
A refrigerator magnet has a stronger magnetic field than the IMF.The Sun's magnetic field would vary as the inverse-square of the distance from its surface,finally petering out at 11-billion miles out.
ELSE, that vast gradient field focuses on the surface of a radiant black body and lights it up.

Quote:
Everyone has 'influencers' in their lives,who have the power to shape opinion and beliefs.
I like Scott Adams for his background in persuasion and hypnotism. He's more in my field of view than in my life.

And you of course, at least on aerodynamics.

Quote:
Obviously,now we have bonafide,prima facie evidence of concerted conspiracies to sow doubt about climate change and impact government policies which would affect business models.
It goes on forever.
"We didn't start the fire."
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Old 05-15-2019, 04:15 PM   #5840 (permalink)
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surface we didn't

Quote:
Originally Posted by freebeard View Post
ELSE, that vast gradient field focuses on the surface of a radiant black body and lights it up.



I like Scott Adams for his background in persuasion and hypnotism. He's more in my field of view than in my life.

And you of course, at least on aerodynamics.



"We didn't start the fire."
As I understand it,any blackbody at a representative temperature as that on the Sun,will emit electromagnetic radiation within the visible spectrum.
Frankenstein's monster says 'Fire bad' and so do climate scientists.The message in 1957 was,quit doing it.They're the experts,and as far as I'm concerned,the only ones qualified to make the call.

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