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Old 08-07-2019, 07:27 PM   #6431 (permalink)
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models

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Originally Posted by RustyLugNut View Post
You are using MODELS to predict the future. No matter what Aerohead links to in support of AGW, that is all it is. I can be wrong. It can be right. It most likely is somewhere in between. My argument is that the models assume correlation is causation. You may cripple our modern economies with a hard headed approach to force everyone to use solar and wind. You may find that you can stop the output of CO2 - and still end up with a hotter world because something was not seen.

My father was a Microbiologist and Vectors were his thing. Just because a bunch of people ate at the local pizza joint doesn't mean the pizza joint is the cause. There may be various underlying causes of the illness.

AGW is even more complex by many orders of magnitude.

I agree that the world is warming. I even admit it might be caused by human activity. I am adamant that we should not collapse our economies to blindly halt CO2 emissions without looking at other trigger points that, though small, could in aggregate, surpass CO2's effects and we find that our efforts were all in vain.

By the way. The pizza joint was clean. All the patrons who got sick were part of a softball league who drank Gatorade prepared with tap water. That tap water came from a well. The well had Giardia . The well was polluted by a poorly sited leach field.

You may have slammed the Pizza joint with violations and fines. And it would have done nothing.

We may be well doing this on a world wide scale.
Some of the General Circulation models produce output which agrees so closely with observation,and produce predictions which come true,that the scientists are left with a rather high confidence in their predictive power.

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Old 08-07-2019, 08:12 PM   #6432 (permalink)
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From physics,this variance in Btus or watts cannot explain the amount of energy absorbed by Earth to create the observed warming.James Hansen has studied this since the 1960s.The physics of global warming cannot be satisfied by the feeble difference in the visible and UV spectra falling on Earth's surface.
Okay, I guess it sounds to me like irradiant lack-of-forcing. [edit: I just got to #6429. I can see orbital perturbations.]

Redpoint5 — He starts the day off with pink ARs, but gets to Andrew Ynag's UBI and it happens at https://youtu.be/IwtHJZWYSP8?t=2448.
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Old 08-07-2019, 09:35 PM   #6433 (permalink)
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If the ice age is only 8 degrees colder then I'm good with getting 2 degrees warmer.
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Old 08-07-2019, 10:06 PM   #6434 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by All Darc View Post
.....but it would require melt antartic ice (repreents 90% of world ice), all of it, and that's quite impossible..... ...... if temperature was changed up to melt everthing, Earth would be a steam room.
As AGW warms the Earth's biosphere, the atmosphere can hold more water vapor (one of the greatest GHGs), the first step toward a steam room. Therefore, water vapor is NOT the darling molecule of AGW deniers, refuting AGW, but one of the greatest bio-feedbacks of AGW.
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Old 08-07-2019, 10:18 PM   #6435 (permalink)
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I'm good with getting 2 degrees warmer.
I assume u got a/c? You can go 3, 6, 10 Cdeg warmer, till the electric grid goes down!
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Old 08-07-2019, 11:29 PM   #6436 (permalink)
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Steam and water vapor aren't the same thing. Just sayin'.
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Old 08-08-2019, 02:06 AM   #6437 (permalink)
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Got any credible sources saying man is going to warm the planet 3c?
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Old 08-10-2019, 02:51 PM   #6438 (permalink)
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The Sun and global warming-Part-3

*2006 NASA's Earth Science budget cut 66%,compared to 2004.
*Feb 10,2006 James Hansen,brief dscussion of tropical storms....how NASA-GISS climate simulations showed heat, right where hurricanes Katrina and Rita formed,and theirs was not the only model of it....intensification ,Conference: politics and science,New School for Social Research,Manhattan,N.Y..
*2006,new European Remote-sensing Satellites,ERS-1 & 2 launched.
*March 19,2006,Hansen and Rick Piltz appear on CBS' 60 Minutes
*March 23,2006,Cybercast News Service publishes first in series of hit pieces on Hansen in retalliation for 60Minutes show,written by Rush Limbaugh's producer,Marc Morano.
*March 26,2006,Disney-ABC's This Week,guest,George Will,characterizes renewed interest in global warming a creation of 'liberal media.'
*c April,9,2006,Chicago Sun-Times fact-checkers let a FoxNews,newspaper column of Robert Novak fall though the crackes,allowing Novaks false information,lifted from Michael Crichton's,2004,novel,'State of Fear',a *******ization of Hansen's 1988 data make it to print.
*June 2006,U.S. Senator,James Inhofe,(R),Oklahoma,hires Rush Limgaugh's producer,Marc Morano,as communications dorector for Inhofe's Committee on Environment and Public Works,who's already used Crichton as an expert (sic) witness on global warming.
*2006,Senator John McCain,(R) Arizona,in his 5th year of trying to convince President Bush of the significance of global warming.
*March,2006,'I think the only way to get any action now is for the public to get angry..." Hansen
*April,2006,Greenland ice loss now @ 311-billion tons/year.
*January,2007,National Association of Evangelicals (45,000 churches) declare for climate action.
*March,2007,George Deutsch,Philip Cooney,James Connaughton,testify before Congress's House Oversight Committee.
*2007,Americans using twice the energy of Europeans,with zero difference to their standard of living.
*2007,plants and animals migrating polewards,at 4-miles per decade.
*2007,global warming advancing at 35-miles per decade.
*2007,Arctic lifeforms have no where to migrate to
*2007,all researchers report,Greenland losing 110-billion tons more ice,along with fast-moving ice flows,ice-quakes
*April,2007,US Supreme Court rules:Federal Govt. has authority to regulate carbon dioxide emissions of cars and trucks
*2007,'fast','Charney' feedbacks observed for:water vapor,aerosols,clouds,sea-ice,tundra,permafrost,clathrates
*2007,Mountain glaciers experiencing 'Albedo flip.'
*2007,entire,700-cubic-mile Glacier Bay,Alaska,ice field is gone.
*2007,Alan Greenspan,along with other economists see some sense in imposing a 'rising' price,revenue-neutral,carbon-tax
*Summer,2007,Senator John Dingell,(D) Michigan,is first politician to broach the topic of a carbon tax
*2007,Cheney's point man,O'Donovan,leaves govt.service for Shell Oil co.
*2007,Cheney's Philip Cooney,leaves govt. service for ExxonMobil
*2008,Seasat laser-altimetry data now online
*2008,US NAVY's Geosat re-tasked for climate work
*Kyoto Treaty lapses
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Old 08-10-2019, 02:54 PM   #6439 (permalink)
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came true

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Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
I Google searched for a list of global warming predictions that came true and the only results that came back are ones that were wrong.
Garbage in, garbage out.
I ran across a dozen or so in Mark Bowen's 'Censoring Science' book.
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Old 08-10-2019, 03:04 PM   #6440 (permalink)
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unnatural

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Originally Posted by oil pan 4 View Post
The earth is in a constant state of change.
For the planet to not be warming or cooling would be unnatural.
What you say is correct,but the caveat is,the timescales.The Holocene period that we live in,has been very stable since the last ice age,up until the Industrial Revolution.What we're currently experiencing falls outside the envelope of natural variability.
In 1870 we lived in a 58-F world.
Today,we live in a 59.94-F world.
At a doubling of carbon dioxide(560ppmv) we'll be living in a 62.86-F world.
I think we're at 411-ppmv today,compared to 280ppmv in 1870.

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