The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists

[aerohead]

A week ago,oilpan4 asked for some proof about this and a few other topics.I was reading the book,CENSORING SCIENCE,by physicist,Mark Bowen,2008,Dutton/Penguin,N.Y.,N.Y..,a little over 300-pages of text.
I'm just gonna put some dates and bullets up,and if anyone wants to discuss it,we can go from there.
*mid-Pliocene,about 3-million years ago,Earth is 3-C warmer,and sea-level 50-115-feet higher.
*18,000 years ago was last glacial maximum,at 4.5C (8F) cooler,with ave,global temp of 51-F.
*14,000 years ago,was the end of the glaciation,with sea-level rise of 3-feet,per twenty-years,for 400-years (15-feet/century).
*In 1784,Benjamin Franklin introduced the 'parasol effect',associated with atmospheric global dimming (dust and aerosols).
*1870 is considered 'pre-industrial',with atmospheric concentration of 280 ppmv,and average global temperature of 58-F.
*1870's global temperature without the atmosphere,= zero-F.
*1896,Svante Arrhenius connects man-made carbon dioxide with global warming.
*1961,meterologist,J.Murray Mitchell,U.S.Weather Service,introduces notion of ast few decades of Earth cooling (global cooling).His data set is limited to
20-degrees North latitude and polewards,with no data from geographically below.The facts were: The entire northern hemisphere had warmed,and the rest of the world had warmed,from 1940-1961.
*1963-1965,Earth experiences three years of global cooling as a result of the parasol effect of dust and aerosols from the 1963 Mount Agung,volcanic eruption,Indonesia.
*1967,NASA begins its The Global Atmospheric Research Program
*1971,Rasool,and Schnieder,paper,Science,suggests 'global cooling', as a consequence of the parasil effect of the anthropogenic 'volcano',from tailpipes and smokestacks.As soon as it's published,Stephen Schneider discovers a mathematics error,but it's too late.
*1971,paper,Science,about atmospheric droplets in Venusian atmosphere,by John Lewis,MIT.
*1973,Hansen and Lacis,publish,solar radiation model for Earth.
*1974,Rowland and Molina make connection between DuPont 'Freon',and the ozone-hole.(CFCs are the strongest known greenhouse gas,plus they photo-chemically,biodegrade into chlorine,which destroys stratospheric atmospheric ozone,the only thing that protects us from lethal UV radiation.
*1974,Stephen Schneider,publishes his second Science article,correcting for his 1971 error,plus predicting that anthropogenic greenhouse gas-induced global warming will overtake anthropogenic global cooling soon after 1980.
*1975,Carl Sagan's,correct guess,that Venus's temperature is a function of a runaway greenhouse effect.
*1975,Hansen proposes a climate modelling brain trust at NASA.
*1975,Hansen is found to be correct in his theory of anthropogenic aerosol cooling.
*1976,Hansen is found to be correct in his theory about non-CO2,anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.
*1976,Hansen is found to be correct in his theory of anthropogenic carbon dioxide greenhouse warming.
*1976,anthopogenic greenhouse warming is estimated at two-watts per square-meter surface heating,day and night.
*1976,Hansen et al,paper,Science,contains 'policy recommendations'!!!!!!!!!!
*1976,book,'The Weather Machine',by Nigel Calder,speaks of imminent ice age.
*July,1977,report: National Academy of Sciences,............. business-as-usual may lead to as much as eleven degrees-F warming,by 2050.
*July,1977,the hottest since the Dust Bowl.
*1978,NASA's Pioneer spacecraft mission-Venus,launch,with polarimeter,to measure atmospheric light scatter.
*1979,Hansen's group at NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Science,begins to assemble global temperature database.
*1980,record heat,ahead of Stephen Schneider's 1974 prediction.
*1981,Hansen et al., publish first comprehensive work on global warming,including 'guess' that anthopogenic non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas effects,and parasol effects of anthropogenic aerosols are cancelling each other out.
*1981,Reagan-Bush appointee Fred Koomanoff,slashes Hansen's budget,requiring layoff of five scientists.
*1981,Reagan-Bush appointee,and lead climate skeptic,Michael MacCracken swings into action.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

[freebeard]

At permalink #6418 I pointed to a paper and quoted the abstract.

New concerns for neurocognitive function during deep space exposures to chronic, low dose rate, neutron radiation

Today, in episode 621, Scott Adams speculates that in the society that is evolving, 1/3 to 2/3rds of adult lack the ability to function in society. And gives the reasons. 200 years ago someone with an IQ 0f 80 and an addictive personality could function. Nor so much today, right?

The climate isn't degrading as fast as society's ability to function in it.

[redpoint5]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Today, in episode 621, Scott Adams speculates that in the society that is evolving, 1/3 to 2/3rds of adult lack the ability to function in society. And gives the reasons. 200 years ago someone with an IQ 0f 80 and an addictive personality could function. Nor so much today, right?

The climate isn't degrading as fast as society's ability to function in it.

I'm very curious to see that episode. As Peterson often points out, technology has made everything much more complex, and so work has become more complex, meaning even the lower skill level jobs require increasing intelligence (problem solving ability), and the lowest skill jobs (mostly repeated physical actions) get eliminated by machines/automation.

Peterson points out that the US military will not accept roughly the lower 10% of the population based on cognitive testing, and that if the military won't accept them, what chance do those people have in the private workplace?

So technology is increasingly eliminating jobs, and disproportionately those jobs towards the lower end of the skill/pay spectrum. That's despite the intrinsic motivation to automate the higher skill/pay jobs.

I tend to believe social structure places humanity in more risk than climate at the moment, but they both influence each other.

[aerohead]

*1982-1984,El Chircon,eruption,Mexico,aerosols cool Earth for two years
*1982,Hansen et al.,publish study on seal-level trends.
*1983 as El Chircon's aerosols peter out,Earth hits a new temperature record.
*1984,Bob Jastrow helps found,George C. Marshall Institute,which will become a creature of the fossil-fuel industry.
*1987 exceeds 1983 heat record,despite being at solar minimum.
*1988 heat waves,drought,worst growing season,$4-billion in farm relief.
*August,1988 candidate, G.H.W.Bush lies to the American people to get elected,says he'll do something about global warming.
* Climate denier,J.Patrick Michaels,begins feeding at western coal utility's trough.
*1988,IPCC established.
*1988,Hansen's 'explosive' climate change testimony before US Senate.
*1988,Hansen's article,Journal of Geophysical Research,presents three scenarios about global warming.(Michael Crichton(medical doctor and author) will later,cherry-pick,and use this material out of context,as part of climate denial strategy in 2004.
*1989,G.H.W.Bush appointee,to Office of Management and Budget rewrites Hansen's main conclusion about global warming,in written testimony submitted to Senate Subcommittee on Science,Technology,and Space,chaired by Senator Al Gore.
*May,1989,Hansen appears before Gore's committee a second time to disavow the testimony rewritten by his bureaucratic overseers.
*1989.Hansen is found to be correct about global warming and hurricane intensification.
*December,1989,Bob Jastrow and fossil-fuel industry goes on attack against Jim Hansen,with disinformation campaign predicated upon solar-forced global warming,with Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon.Hansen knows their argument is bogus.He's studied,and modelled solar effects since before 1973,and knows that solar variability constitutes only 1/10th the surface energy forcing as anthropogenic greenhouse gases.Solar physicist,John Eddy,who had been courted by Bob Jastrow said Jastrows solar argument was 'preposterous.'
*1989,NASA announces,Mission to Planet Earth,with Earth observation satellites.
*1990,James Hansen begins collaboration with Vostok Station,Antarctica,Vostok ice-core researchers,Re: dust/methane/aerosols.
*1990,Hansen's work proves global warming to be a 'clear and present danger.
*April,1990,NASA,GISS,Hansen's 'Climate Impact of Solar Variability' released.
*April,1990,Hansen predicts a new heat record in 1990-1992.
*November,1990,Hansen's predicted new heat record is established.
*1990,Hansen,et al.,review article,Nature,relates role of sun,dust,greenhouse gases,and human volcano,asserting that they constitute half the climate forcing as anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
*June 12,1991,Mount Pinatubo eruption,lofts 20-million tons of sulfur-dioxide,25.8-km (16-miles) into the stratosphere,where is becomes sulfuric acid droplets,which are blown and distributed globally,cooling Earth into
*1992,NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper,aircraft begins service.
1993,via the parasol effect.
*September,1991,Hansen et al.,add Pinatubo to their General Circulation Model,which predicts a cooling,then return to record high temps.
*Late 1992,Earth shows almost 0.5-C dip (1-F).
*Mysterious extinctions of amphibians reported in Monteverde Cloud Forest,Costa Rica.
*1995,Pinatubo's aerosols have dissipated,with new heat record set,just as predicted in 1991.
*1998,new heat record.
*1998,Competitive Enterprise Institute begins receiving money from ExxonMobil,which will continue into 2005,after receiving around $2-million.
*1998,George C.Marshall Institute begins receiving funds from ExxonMobil,$630,000 by 2005.
*1999,NASA,GISS narrows in on 'climate sensitivity' at 560ppmv,with 2.70C (4.86-F) for the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
*August,2000,candidate,G.W.Bush,lies to American public about regulating carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants,once elected.
*January,2001,James Hansen's car is broken into.
*January,2001,James Hansen's home is burned to the ground.
*February 3,2001,'The job of the Office of Public Affairs,at every level in NASA is to convey the work done at NASA to our stakeholders in an intelligible way.It is not the job of public affairs offices to alter,filter or adjust engineering or scientific material produced by NASA's technical staff.'Michael Griffen,Administer,NASA.
*February 3,2001,'Until I get instructions in writing that tells me I can't talk to you,I am going to continue to speak out.' James Hansen,'On Point,NPR Radio,Friday,February 3,2001
*March,2001,President George W. Bush abandons his campaign promise to regulate coal-fired power plant carbon emissions.
*March,2001,President Bush receives memo from Senators:Hagel,Craig,Helms,and Roberts,to oppose Kyoto,and oppose any and all regulation of carbon dioxide.
*March,2001,President Bush rejects Kyoto Treaty.
*2001,'Conservation may be a sign of personal virtue,but it is not a sufficient basis for sound,comprehensive energy policy,'president' Dick Cheney.
*2001-2006,Senator John McCain,tries in vain to convince President Bush,the importance of global warming.
*2002,Bush Administration establishes Climate Change Science Program.
*2002,Greenland shedding 217-billion tons of ice/year now,equivalent to 56-cubic miles of water a year.
*2002,President Bush obligatory report,under UN treaty obligation,concludes:
warming poses a significant risk and is caused by human activity (which ends up on front page of The New York Times).
*January,2003,NASA launches ICESat,Ice,Cloud,and Land Elevations Satellite.
*early-2003,Sallie Baliunas,Willie Soon,American Petroleum Institute go on climate change attack,sowing disinformation about IPCC 3rd Assessment conclusions of warming over past 1,000-years.
*2003,Global warming is'the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people.' US Senator,James Inhofe (R),Oklahoma,on senate floor.
*2003,NASA,GISS,climate modeller,Davis Rind,censored by NASA public affairs,Bush-Cheney appointees,at 'rehearsal' for press conference on remarkable warming trend in Arctic.
*May,2003,Jakobshavn Isbrae Glacier,Greenland,largest outlet glacier, now completely disappeared.
*2003,15,000 dead,Paris,France,heat-wave.
*2004-2050,20% mpg improvement = $2-trillion in oil savings,(never happens)
*May,2004,Greenland,losing 95-gigatons,ice/year.
*October 31,2004,'The opinions and interpretations that I express today are my personal views.I am a government employee,but I am on leave today,I travel here at my expense,and I speak as a private citizen.' James Hansen,'Iowa talk.'
*2004,'....a greenhouse gas-induced warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.' Thomas Knutson,NOAA,geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,and Robert Tuleya,GFDL 30-year veteran,paper,Journal of Climate.
*January,2005,Climate denier,Chris Landsea,NOAA National Hurricane Center,quits working group preparing a report for the IPCC,when IPCC leaders refuse his demand for reprimand of firing of lead author,for noting during a media conference call that the hurricane season of 2004 'may well be a harbinger of the future.'
*2005,mysterious extinctions in Costa Rica since 1994 attributed to climate change.
*2005,Competitive Enterprise Institute has now received about $2-million from ExxonMobil
*August,2005,report on link between climate and hurricane intensification,two weeks before Hurricane Katrina,Kerry Emanuel,meteorologist,MIT.
*September,2005,Science,article on climate change and hurricane intensification,four weeks after Katrina.
*September,2005,Pieter Tan,specialist on carbon dioxide measurement,NOAA,is forbidden by NOAA from using the phrase 'climate change' in any of the titles or abstracts for the talks at the conference on atmospheric CO2 he;d organized.He opening disobeys the restriction.
*October,2005,Thomas Knutson,NOAA,GFDL,on record with The Wall Street Journal,that he'd been censored by NOAA public affairs office,prevented a CNBC television interview:Atlantic hurricanes,then his invitation to MSNBC television interview was turned down by the Bush White House.
*November 29,2005,NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster denies any connection between hurricane intensification and climate change,despite reports of two previous months.He cites connection to a twenty -to-thirty year cycle that's been seen since 1950,even though it's impossible to prove the existence of a 20-to-30 year cycle with only 50-years worth of data!
*Fall,2005,US Senator,(R) Oklahoma,James Inhofe,hires Rush Limbaugh's producer,Marc Morano,as communications director for his committee.
*2005,Michael Crichton(medical doctor,novelist,climate denier) becomes only climate 'expert' consulted by President Bush.Their meeting is arranged by Karl Rove.
*June,2005,Hansen et al.,'Earth Energy Imbalance:Confirmation and Implications,' top 750-meters of oceans warming.Land and oceans absorbing about one-watt more sunlight than it is re-emitting/meter-squared.,means there's an additional 0.6-C (1-F) in the 'pipeline' on top of existing warming if we stop all emissions in 2005.A 6o-degree F world.
*2005,Hansen's Columbia University website draft release,,'Earth's Energy Out of Balance: The Smoking Gun of Global Warming.'
*December,2005,95% consensus on climate change.
*December 8,2005,ABCNews,com,Bill Blakemore article: 95% of scientists agree,temperatures accelerating.
*December,2005,Hansen's 'Keeling Talk' at AGU annual meeting,San Francisco,CA.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

This is the part I don't get. Irradiance-forcing is different to simple irradiance how?


http://www.herinst.org/BusinessManag...g/opinion.html

*Earth,without an atmosphere is at equilibrium at 0-F.
*In 1870,Earth,with an atmosphere averaged +58 F at the surface,and zero-F at 20,000 feet altitude.
*In 1950,Earth averaged +59-F at the surface,and zero-F at 20,700-feet altitude.
*No other planet in the solar system has warmed,since 1870,even though exposed to the very same sun.
*The only variable is Earth's atmosphere.By default.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Between minimum,and maximum,solar absolute total irradiance varies only 1/10th of one percent(one divided by one hundred,then divided again by ten).From physics,this variance in Btus or watts cannot explain the amount of energy absorbed by Earth to create the observed warming.James Hansen has studied this since the 1960s.The physics of global warming cannot be satisfied by the feeble difference in the visible and UV spectra falling on Earth's surface.
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Earth's got another trick up her sleeve.If the Sun DOES brighten,Stratospheric photo-chemistry produces additional ozone,which inhibits the additional UV radiation from penetrating to the ground,where it would be converted to the long-wave,infrared radiation which gets partially trapped by the greenhouse effect,acting like a living iris,which chokes down on this added incoming radiation.It's a perfectly organic process.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earth's other trick,is that,only a small portion of the Sun's radiation actually makes it through the atmosphere anyway.'Climate' is only 17-km thick.Above the tropopause,much of the atmosphere is completely opaque to radiation of many wavelengths.We're really only concerned with visible,UV-A,and UV-B.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Climate change is the change in weather over centuries and millennia.
It bares no compairson to a 8.0 earth quake on the west coast followed by a 100 meter tsunami.
Pretending they are in the same category is almost as dumb as living below sea level when you know the sea level is rising

The heat is moving at 35-miles per decade while plants and animals can only move at 4-miles per decade.
14,000 years ago,at the end of the last glaciation,sea-levels rose at 15-feet per century,for 400-years.
At the peak of glaciation,Earth was only 8-F colder,(51-F ave)
There's a 100-year lag-time between surface warming and ocean warming, due to the enormous thermal mass of the ocean water,but it's there lurking,with extra heating potential built in.
I agree that the 'experience' won't be like a major,sudden, cataclysmic event,but it won't be pretty.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by freebeard

Still not sure what 'solar irradiance-forcing' is.

A solar 'irradiance' forcing would be limited to an effect caused solely by the difference in actual solar energy reaching Earth's surface,as during a complete,eleven-year solar cycle (although some cycles don't produce a difference in irradiance)
Other forcings associated with the Sun would have to do with seasons,dust,smoke,soot,aerosols,cloud cover,photo-chemical atmospheric anomalies,eclipses,the three Milankovich orbital perturabation cycles of tilt,wobble,and eccentricity.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by redpoint5

That's an interesting question; are we (humanity) more resilient to extinction due to our advanced technology, or more prone to extinction due to it?

My assumption is that most people who believe global warming is the biggest problem probably also believe technology is largely to blame.

In a year and a half of reading the science journals,all that I've seen the scientists identify,is anthropogenic greenhouse gases,whether non-carbon dioxide,or carbon dioxide.No other finger-pointing.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by oil pan 4

Astronomers dont study cosmic rays, that's physicists.
Neither of those study the weather or climate.
That would be like a texas coton farmer giving a lecture on selling rice in China while in france.

Dark matter being mysterious particles that have huge mass but are non interactive. Not regular matter which happens to be non lumenous such as dust along with other forces that we currently think we understand.

Actually they both do study weather and climate.NASA uses them all.It was radio astronomers at the Greenbank National Radio Astronomy Observatory which allowed the beginning of our understanding of global weather and warming on Earth.
Astrophysicists study every facet of celestial bodies from which to glean understandings of our home planet and Sun.

[aerohead]

Originally Posted by RustyLugNut

You are using MODELS to predict the future. No matter what Aerohead links to in support of AGW, that is all it is. I can be wrong. It can be right. It most likely is somewhere in between. My argument is that the models assume correlation is causation. You may cripple our modern economies with a hard headed approach to force everyone to use solar and wind. You may find that you can stop the output of CO2 - and still end up with a hotter world because something was not seen.

My father was a Microbiologist and Vectors were his thing. Just because a bunch of people ate at the local pizza joint doesn't mean the pizza joint is the cause. There may be various underlying causes of the illness.

AGW is even more complex by many orders of magnitude.

I agree that the world is warming. I even admit it might be caused by human activity. I am adamant that we should not collapse our economies to blindly halt CO2 emissions without looking at other trigger points that, though small, could in aggregate, surpass CO2's effects and we find that our efforts were all in vain.

By the way. The pizza joint was clean. All the patrons who got sick were part of a softball league who drank Gatorade prepared with tap water. That tap water came from a well. The well had Giardia . The well was polluted by a poorly sited leach field.

You may have slammed the Pizza joint with violations and fines. And it would have done nothing.

We may be well doing this on a world wide scale.

Some of the General Circulation models produce output which agrees so closely with observation,and produce predictions which come true,that the scientists are left with a rather high confidence in their predictive power.